Bodden makes all-improved squad

[eom]

the problem with these small sample statistics is that they are comparing cb's playing in different systems and giving people the illusion that an arbitrary numerical ranking equates to success or failure on the field.
revis, for example, is probably shadowing the other team's #1, while guys like asomugha and cromartie just stick to the right side of the field, I believe.
also, you've got guys playing man, playing zone, coming down in tampa 2, getting safety help, etc.

which of these 2 corners would you call more successful on 10 plays?:
A -- receiver catches 10 balls on third downs but is wrapped up short of the first down marker.
B -- receiver catches only 5 of 10 balls, with 3 passes batted down and 2 picks, but of the 5 catches 3 are first downs and 2 td's.

 

[emoney_33]

I judge a cornerback on how he moves, is he smooth, does he hit, does he cover well, does he get faked out of position, does he recover, does he have a nose for the ball/good hands.

Different types work well in different systems.

By all means attempt to guess how a cornerback from one system would fare in another based on statistics. I only care if they are effective in ours.

That's fine, you can see by watching that Bodden is a good CB. My original point was only that you can't use the eye test to analyze him with respect to all other CBs in the league. In the end I don't think we are really disagreeing here.

 

[spacecrime]

the problem with these small sample statistics is that they are comparing cb's playing in different systems and giving people the illusion that an arbitrary numerical ranking equates to success or failure on the field.
revis, for example, is probably shadowing the other team's #1, while guys like asomugha and cromartie just stick to the right side of the field, I believe.
also, you've got guys playing man, playing zone, coming down in tampa 2, getting safety help, etc.

which of these 2 corners would you call more successful on 10 plays?:
A -- receiver catches 10 balls on third downs but is wrapped up short of the first down marker.
B -- receiver catches only 5 of 10 balls, with 3 passes batted down and 2 picks, but of the 5 catches 3 are first downs and 2 td's.

Statistics aren't perfect. Everyone goes gaga over INTs, but guys like Deltha O'Neil made fortune by giving up a lot of TDs to make some spectacular pics. Asante, too, to a certain degree.

i agree you cannot say the "fourth rated CB is better than the fifth rated" but statistics are worthless. They definitely show some things. In you example, it is good if a guy wraps a player up after he catches the ball, but it is better if the receiver never catches the ball. That is waht suprised me about Asomuga, that he allowed catches on 75% of the balls thrown his way. no way you can spin that into something good.

It's like QBs. The TD to INT ration is not proof of anything because sometimes a receiver will drop a perfect TD and sometimes a defensive player will make a spectacular INT, BUT generally speaking, the better a QB, the better the ratio.

Just because stats aren't perfect, you shouldn't totally ignore them.

Just use them with common sense. Don't expect two-gap linemen to have big tackle-for-loss and sack numbers. Expect free-roaming MLBs to have a LOT of tackles. But within certain parameters, you can see trends.

I would not pay $16 mil a year to a CB who lets his receiver catch three out of four passes thrown his way. 70% is bad. 75% is horrible any way you look at it.

 

[eom]

but what if I told you there was a corner who only allowed 21 completions to 41 by revis?
wouldn't that earn him twice as much as revis is making?

of course, I wouldn't be paying any corner 16m...

 

[supafly]

but what if I told you there was a corner who only allowed 21 completions to 41 by revis?
wouldn't that earn him twice as much as revis is making?

of course, I wouldn't be paying any corner 16m...

That's pretty much exactly what I thought too. The bottom line is that Asomaugh only allowed 21 catches all year--which is slightly more than 1 catch per game, truly remarkable numbers for any CB.

If his "presence" and reputation helped him achieve this, then it cannot be taken away or undermined.

I certainly understand spacecrime's point too however, that you must take into account all of the variables and factors involved to reach a true reading of the statistic. In Asomaugh's case, the fact that he still only gave up 21 total receptions should be compared to the fact that he gave up 21 catches out of 28 attempts. In Revis' case, you have more of an overall pattern, a 'truer' understanding of the stat due to the larger number of attempts and completions--although we can assume his attempts will go down next year too.

So, if Revis is the one next year to give up 21 catches on only 28 attempts--I think we'll all still agree that he's a great shutdown CB, and that he still only gave up 21 catches all year...much like Asomaugh did this year due to his great reputation that he earned. I think this overrides his 75% completion rate, however others may feel differently.

 

[RayClay]

That's fine, you can see by watching that Bodden is a good CB. My original point was only that you can't use the eye test to analyze him with respect to all other CBs in the league. In the end I don't think we are really disagreeing here.

I'm primarily a Patriots fan. If someone mentions a CB from another team is great, I'll watch and see if I agree, but I don't try to rate them.

I'm just saying those statistics in a team game can give vastly different results based on some factors, though coaches that know what they are looking for can make good use of them.

I'm sure skillful analysts can put all the variables (and there are a lot) in perspective to make rankings, but i wouldn't try. then again, they probably watch lots of tape too, and probably rate them on observance.

 

[supafly]

I'm primarily a Patriots fan. If someone mentions a CB from another team is great, I'll watch and see if I agree, but I don't try to rate them.

I'm just saying those statistics in a team game can give vastly different results based on some factors, though coaches that know what they are looking for can make good use of them.

I'm sure skillful analysts can put all the variables (and there are a lot) in perspective to make rankings, but i wouldn't try. then again, they probably watch lots of tape too, and probably rate them on observance.

I wouldn't consider myself a skillful analyst by any stretch, but I can think of several variables that would affect these individual stats from a team perspective off of the top of my head.

You'd have to take into account some of the following, IMO, which you'd do from watching tape, basic observation, or trained scouting:

--defensive formation, not to mention specific secondary formations
--whether or not the CB is moving around to cover the opposing teams #1WR, or staying on the same side of the field
--the consistancy of play of the other CB's on the team, (having poorer CB's in at the same time would affect this greatly)
--garbage time plays
--how much of a lead or defecit the opposing team had
--the value of the opposing QB's, and WR's for that matter
--possible injuries
--the average amt of cushioning the CB is giving the WR--hard physical man to man off the LOS, or more of a softer coverage of almost 10 yds
--missed assignments that are obvious
--rookies who may be still in a learning phase vs. seasoned vets

FWIW--I'm not agreeing or disagreeing w/ emoney's statements, which are indeed valid. I'm simply stating some of the 'variables' that would have to be considered, as you stated. I'm sure there are a ton that the trained eye looks for.

 

[brdmaverick]

Here's an interesting perspective of Asohmaghua's stats.

Opponents completed 21 out of 28 attempts in his direction. He gave up 249 yards, with 119 of them coming after the catch. Therefore, the average reception was made 6.04 yards down the field. Even the best corners are going to give up the short ones.

 

[brdmaverick]

What's amazing is that opponents threw towards Asomaghua once out of every 35 snaps (that's about twice per game).

The next closest in this stat was Quincy Butler of St. Louis, who was thrown at once out of every 16.6 snaps.

 

[brdmaverick]

What's amazing is that opponents threw towards Asomaghua once out of every 35 snaps (that's about twice per game).

The next closest in this stat was Quincy Butler of St. Louis, who was thrown at once out of every 16.6 snaps.

Darius Butler was thrown at once every 7.7 snaps he was on the field.