BJGE better than we thought:

[Oswlek]

Then please explain what you mean when you say BJGE doesn't threaten the edge. He had had some quality runs up the sidelines (e.g., Chicago, 2nd Jets game, Miami, et al), and in terms of receiving, he has the team's 2nd highest comp % behind Woodhead.

Also I don't see how you can argue that whenever he's in there, the D knows what's coming, because there have been plenty of play-actions, and a couple of flea-flickers. Also there was a double reverse that had Tate eating up quite a bit of real estate when all was said and done.

Yes, NE does a great job of using their own predictibility against the opponent. You won't get an argument from me.

And 12 catches all year sheds a lot more light on his threat as a receiver than how many passes he caught, IMO.

In what way does 1,000 yards not tell the "whole story"? Are you considering 1,000 yards an inferior number? If so, why couldn't our previous two running backs rack up that number behind essentially the same line (actually they had a healthy Neal). We had to go way back to Dillion before we could find another Patriot RB who had gone over 1,000 yards.

Also, I don't know about you, but when it comes to fumbles, zero is a nice round number that I like.

Again, this is a very simple concept. Lots more factors affect statistical results than just that individual's performance. You seem to think I'm breaking new ground here, but I thought it was football 101.

I've already said it, but I'll say it again:

I don't buy it, but I've been wrong before. I guess we'll just wait until the games start to find out. :eat3:

 

[PatsFanInVa]

In the three losses, two regular season, and one playoff, BJGE's average carries was in the single figures if I'm not wrong, something like 8 ,10, 9.

Aha! Eureka! We now know how to go undefeated in 2011!

The Bennie Ratio!

Heh heh.

I like BJGE. His hugest impact was the idea that we had a chance to make 3rd and 2 or 4th and 1 on the ground.

I think the popular wisdom is right on the Ridley/Vereen picks: options options options.

I can remember back when we were hoping we struck gold in the draft w/the Maroney pick. We wanted him to emerge when Corey retired and give the Pats' ground game that extra gear... and it never materialized. But at the same time the RBBC that's been an almost constant feature in NE has become the predominant model, even when one back is a beast.

With the arms the Pats have at QB (yes, plural,) I think it will be a while before we have a 1,500 yard or 2,000 yard [chuckle] rusher. But at least as fans we seem aware of that now.

 

[Oswlek]

I like BJGE. His hugest impact was the idea that we had a chance to make 3rd and 2 or 4th and 1 on the ground.

Actually, 3rd/4th and short is a big reason why I am looking for an upgrade. Without fear of being beaten to the edge or the RB as a receiver, teams could clog the middle and have good success against Benny. Look at the 4th down stop in SD and the 3rd and 1 stuff in the Jet playoff game as examples.

 

[Observer]

BJGE is not better than I thought because I always thought he was quite good. Consistent and dependable player - no injuries, no fumbles, 4.4 yards average. If any of the newcomers is better than him, I will be very happy; if not I am still happy.

 

[rookBoston]

Teams dont spend 2 of their first four picks (and 2 of the top 72 overall) on the RB position when they think it is all sewn up.

BB is not a typical GM. We've been discussing this on the draft forum for months.

I think he's perfectly satisfied (more than satisfied, quite confident) in what he has in BJGE and Woody. To my eye, adding Vereen, Ridley, Solder and Cannon is not a reflection on BJGE or the running game. It is a reflection on Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Matt Light and Stephen Neal, four of which are pressing retirement age or have already retired, and the other is an UFA and may be hard to re-sign. So, drafting players in the running game is needs based, but more about the average age of the unit not productivity.

Flip side: although fans and media felt defensive front is the biggest area of need for the Pats in the draft, DL and LB units are already very young and improving. If BB is not satisfied with what he's got brewing at those positions, he's more likely look to free agency than adding even more youth.

So, then, what to do with all those 2nd rounders?

If it feels like a luxury to pick your 3rd and 4th RBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, well you are absolutely right. But BB needs to get credit for hording draft picks, manufacturing draft value by trading down for years, over and over, to put himself in a place where he can afford to spend top-100 selection on roles most teams fill with JAG talent. In any case, is core to his team building philosophy to build a deep roster on the expectation of injuries.

Result: our RBBC is stacked with players that would to compete for a starting role on most teams. And if that creates some competition for the #1 spot, even better. But don't take that as a loss of confidence in BJGE.

I expect Vereen and Ridley to start the year in very much the same capacity that we've seen from Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris... change of pace back, lead blocker, special teams impact player. The Pats have managed to collect one of the youngest, deepest and most promising offensive backfields in the NFL.

 

[Deus Irae]

BB is not a typical GM. We've been discussing this on the draft forum for months.

I think he's perfectly satisfied (more than satisfied, quite confident) in what he has in BJGE and Woody. To my eye, adding Vereen, Ridley, Solder and Cannon is not a reflection on BJGE or the running game. It is a reflection on Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Matt Light and Stephen Neal, four of which are pressing retirement age or have already retired, and the other is an UFA and may be hard to re-sign. So, drafting players in the running game is needs based, but more about the average age of the unit not productivity.

Flip side: although fans and media felt defensive front is the biggest area of need for the Pats in the draft, DL and LB units are already very young and improving. If BB is not satisfied with what he's got brewing at those positions, he's more likely look to free agency than adding even more youth.

So, then, what to do with all those 2nd rounders?

If it feels like a luxury to pick your 3rd and 4th RBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, well you are absolutely right. But BB needs to get credit for hording draft picks, manufacturing draft value by trading down for years, over and over, to put himself in a place where he can afford to spend top-100 selection on roles most teams fill with JAG talent. In any case, is core to his team building philosophy to build a deep roster on the expectation of injuries.

Result: our RBBC is stacked with players that would to compete for a starting role on most teams. And if that creates some competition for the #1 spot, even better. But don't take that as a loss of confidence in BJGE.

I expect Vereen and Ridley to start the year in very much the same capacity that we've seen from Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris... change of pace back, lead blocker, special teams impact player. The Pats have managed to collect one of the youngest, deepest and most promising offensive backfields in the NFL.

I would love for one of the rookie running backs to be good enough to start the year in the same capacity that we've seen from Fred Taylor.

Taylor was part of the 1-2 tandem with Maroney in 2009, and was the team's #1 running back in 2010, prior to injury.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I would love for one of the rookie running backs to be good enough to start the year in the same capacity that we've seen from Fred Taylor.

Taylor was part of the 1-2 tandem with Maroney in 2009, and was the team's #1 running back in 2010, prior to injury.

And after BB saw what he needed to see from BJGE and Woody, he rode the bench as the #4 back from week 12-to the playoffs. (when he returned from injury)

 

[Patspsycho]

Again, this is a very simple concept. Lots more factors affect statistical results than just that individual's performance. You seem to think I'm breaking new ground here, but I thought it was football 101.

If it's as simple as you say then you should be able to clarify it. You say I am plucking the "homerun" idea out of thin air. Here's where I'm coming from: 1,000 yards in the NFL is not a light stat- and numbers are not just numbers every time you look at them. 1,000 yard speaks to some measure of consistency, especially considering that Mankins didn't come onboard until half-way through the season to galvanize the line and give it the tough nasty edge it was missing. Now when you combine that with a solid YPC, zero fumbles, those numbers do suggest a RB that's not exactly a backup.

Yet you do insist that he is not good enough- and you are implying that we drafted two more RB's not because of two departing, ancient RB's, but because we had to "bolster" that position.

But my question is how do you make it better? The only logical assumption I had was that it must be because the "homerun" threat was missing since that seems to be the only thing BJGE is missing from his arsenal (and I have no arguments against that) since everything else has been disproven.

 

[Patspsycho]

Actually, 3rd/4th and short is a big reason why I am looking for an upgrade. Without fear of being beaten to the edge or the RB as a receiver, teams could clog the middle and have good success against Benny. Look at the 4th down stop in SD and the 3rd and 1 stuff in the Jet playoff game as examples.

Are you aware that the 4th down stop in SD was the same run called twice in a row? They saw it coming a mile away.

 

[Professor Frink]

Are you aware that the 4th down stop in SD was the same run called twice in a row? They saw it coming a mile away.

Yeah, they saw it coming because of what Owslek has been saying. They were willing to risk that the Patriots wouldn't ask BJGE do pick up such a critical yard attacking the edge of the defense and knew Brady wouldn't throw to him out of the backfield.

When a defense can feel so confident about something based on the RBs shortcomings, they can cheat to try to stop what BJGE does well, which is pound up the middle.

I don't understand why you've had so much trouble understanding what Owslek has been saying. It's not that BJGE isn't a useful player, it's that if you are relying on him for too large of a role, that can ultimately hurt your offense. Hence the need to upgrade the position, with someone who challenges the defense in a larger variety of ways.

You seem to want to believe that the 1000 yard season he just had is evidence that he is a good enough RB, but there are plenty of reasons to question that premise. First, I think it's legitimate to question how hard it is to gain 1000 yards when you are playing with one of the most dangerous passing games in the NFL.

You can't run for 1000 yards if your some scrub, but that doesn't mean you're good enough to hold down the position.

 

[BlueThunder]

As I recall, the OL had a few problems of its own with injuries and holdouts forcing BB to use backups in place of Neal and Mankins....Kaczur's injury probably wasn't as significant due to Sebastian's play.

If you have no hole to run to, I don't care who you are...yardage is going to be hard to get....

BJGE did what he was asked to do and won't be giving up his starting job to a rookie in his first season......maybe if Vereen blossoms quickly BJGE will be splitting more carries, but I think BB will be easing both Ridley and Vereen into the offense over the course of the season.

As has been said before, the 2 new RB's are replacements for Taylor/Morris/Faulk...not replacements for BJGE/Woody.....each one has his own skillset that BB will utilize in the offense....

:rocker:

 

[Sfpat]

What will determine how much Vereen and/or Ridley play is their ability to learn the blitz pick-up schemes. BB doesn't play RBs who cannot protect TB. After that comes their running ability.

 

[Oswlek]

This will be my last post in this thread.

PatPsycho, I respect you a good deal. Your commentary on this site demonstrates solid understanding of the game and I always enjoy your camp reports. That is why I find it so baffling that you re struggling with such a basic concept.

Football is the most team oriented sport on the planet, causing player stats to be interdependent on other player performances.

Was Larry Fitzgerald really 30% worse in 2010 as he was in 2008, as his yards and TDs suggest?

Tom Brady must have started practicing harder after the 2006 season, right? How else can you explain a 1,300 yard, 7% comp percentage and 26 TD increase the following year?

And, statistically, Reche Caldwell was coming off his best statisticall season in 2006, as well as a 3 year uptick while still being in his mid 20s. Based purely on numbers, he looked to be a promising player, and yet he was out of the league by the end of the next season.

These are not anamolies. Every single team, every single year has at least one example - typically more - of a player's numbers being over (or under) their "normalized" value. It is why footballoutisders uses the disclaimer "this is not Randy Moss, it is Randy Moss with Tom Brady as his quarterback in the Patriots' offensive system...". Interdependent and entwined.

I also think you are exaggerating my claim. As I said before, I was higher on Benny heading into 2010 than many, and higher on him in 2009 than just about everyone. He is a solid player he is a great fit for NE's offense. But he absolutely has his limitations. I can't for the life of me figure out why you keep returning to "homerun threat", a phrase I didn't originally use an subsequantly discounted. Being a threat to the outside is not the same thing as a homerun threat (thought they are often connected), it means that the defense cannot just pack between the hashmarks and have faith that they will beat the runner to the edge if he veers off course. When a runner is no threat in the passing game, you have an extra defender once he doesn't get the ball.

Again, Benny's strengths (decisiveness, reading, no fumbles) more than make up for this against most opponents. But when NE runs into an opponent who can slow down their historically efficient offense, Benny consistently struggles. About the only time NE telegraphed the run and still powered through a defense was the Minny game. IMO, this demonstrates that their run game is dependant on teams feeling threatened by their terrific passing offense.

FWIW, I was saying this last year while Benny was having his success. I made the mistake of trusting numbers with LoMo and decided to ignore that part and just guy with my eyes. And my eyes told me he needed to be upgraded in order to make the running game a stand alone option against elite defenses.

As for my comment about the NE draft, I'm surprised no one has gone after the kill shot, which is that RB is historically the easiest transition into the NFL. Players who need the least development offer a nice premium this offseason. That, in conjunction with NE dearth of youth and backups means I don't begrudge anyone for having a different opinion. But I still disagree with it. Vereen is the prototype for a RB who brings Benny's missing elements to the table while retaining others. He'll need to prove his merit in holding onto the ball and blocking, but he was selected to be the top RB, I'm certain of it.

As for BT's mention of the OL, the issues there were vastly overstated. Kaczur had already lost his job at RT and was in the midst of his first practice at OG when he got hurt. It is entirely possible that Connolly would have beaten him out for LG even had he not gotten hurt. Beyond all that, NE had at least 4 projected starters on the field in every single game, with C/LT/RT for every game. That is acceptable consistency.

Feel free to disagree. It is yur right. But I will be surprised if Vereen isn't the top option by the end of the year.

 

[BlueThunder]

Vereen may be the top option by the end of the year....or not

I like the skillsets in total that the current youngsters in the backfield bring to the offense...how they are utilized is up to BB and how well each performs....we already know what BJGE and Woody bring to the table....all that we have to find out is how Vereen and Ridley adapt to the NFL speed and the playbook.....

I'd put a controversial post here...but O just said that his last post would be the final one on this thread so poking him with a ferret stick would be no fun

 

[Joker]

every time I see an Oswlek post I think of owls....and he's a pretty wise poster...but then I think of Owsley, the creator of sunshine LSD and I get all discombobulated....

I think I may be crackin' up....:woohoo::bricks:

 

[Patspsycho]

This will be my last post in this thread.

PatPsycho, I respect you a good deal. Your commentary on this site demonstrates solid understanding of the game and I always enjoy your camp reports. That is why I find it so baffling that you re struggling with such a basic concept.

Football is the most team oriented sport on the planet, causing player stats to be interdependent on other player performances.

Was Larry Fitzgerald really 30% worse in 2010 as he was in 2008, as his yards and TDs suggest?

Tom Brady must have started practicing harder after the 2006 season, right? How else can you explain a 1,300 yard, 7% comp percentage and 26 TD increase the following year?

And, statistically, Reche Caldwell was coming off his best statisticall season in 2006, as well as a 3 year uptick while still being in his mid 20s. Based purely on numbers, he looked to be a promising player, and yet he was out of the league by the end of the next season.

These are not anamolies. Every single team, every single year has at least one example - typically more - of a player's numbers being over (or under) their "normalized" value. It is why footballoutisders uses the disclaimer "this is not Randy Moss, it is Randy Moss with Tom Brady as his quarterback in the Patriots' offensive system...". Interdependent and entwined.

I also think you are exaggerating my claim. As I said before, I was higher on Benny heading into 2010 than many, and higher on him in 2009 than just about everyone. He is a solid player he is a great fit for NE's offense. But he absolutely has his limitations. I can't for the life of me figure out why you keep returning to "homerun threat", a phrase I didn't originally use an subsequantly discounted. Being a threat to the outside is not the same thing as a homerun threat (thought they are often connected), it means that the defense cannot just pack between the hashmarks and have faith that they will beat the runner to the edge if he veers off course. When a runner is no threat in the passing game, you have an extra defender once he doesn't get the ball.

Again, Benny's strengths (decisiveness, reading, no fumbles) more than make up for this against most opponents. But when NE runs into an opponent who can slow down their historically efficient offense, Benny consistently struggles. About the only time NE telegraphed the run and still powered through a defense was the Minny game. IMO, this demonstrates that their run game is dependant on teams feeling threatened by their terrific passing offense.

FWIW, I was saying this last year while Benny was having his success. I made the mistake of trusting numbers with LoMo and decided to ignore that part and just guy with my eyes. And my eyes told me he needed to be upgraded in order to make the running game a stand alone option against elite defenses.

As for my comment about the NE draft, I'm surprised no one has gone after the kill shot, which is that RB is historically the easiest transition into the NFL. Players who need the least development offer a nice premium this offseason. That, in conjunction with NE dearth of youth and backups means I don't begrudge anyone for having a different opinion. But I still disagree with it. Vereen is the prototype for a RB who brings Benny's missing elements to the table while retaining others. He'll need to prove his merit in holding onto the ball and blocking, but he was selected to be the top RB, I'm certain of it.

As for BT's mention of the OL, the issues there were vastly overstated. Kaczur had already lost his job at RT and was in the midst of his first practice at OG when he got hurt. It is entirely possible that Connolly would have beaten him out for LG even had he not gotten hurt. Beyond all that, NE had at least 4 projected starters on the field in every single game, with C/LT/RT for every game. That is acceptable consistency.

Feel free to disagree. It is yur right. But I will be surprised if Vereen isn't the top option by the end of the year.

I am not picking a fight with you. While I think I understand the game to a good degree, I certainly don't think I'm smarter than anyone on this board nor do I think I am right all the time- I am wrong as often as I am right.

I am not arguing that BJGE is a superstar- far from it; however I think he has demonstrated an ability to hold down the spot better than anyone we've had there recently. If Vereen turns out to be a better candidate and usurps him by the end of the year, then that's what it's going to be, and I'll be eating crow.

I may get overtly passionate about this sometimes, but for me, it's hard not to root for BJGE who came from nowhere and works very hard at his craft. After his best season, does he sit back and wait for payday to rain on him? No, he goes to the toughest boxing gym, the legendary 5th street gym.

I do understand your argument that our run game is not elite, but it certainly didn't hurt our game, nor our final record.

In the final analysis it's functional, and that's how I think it'll be, and I like it that way- I mean, we have one of the best QB in the game, and I don't think we'll be taking the ball out of his hand too much, just yet.

 

[BlueThunder]

I do understand your argument that our run game is not elite, but it certainly didn't hurt our game, nor our final record.

Our run game doesn't have to be elite with Brady at the helm....better than average in the running game just opens up so much more against a tough D.

The speed and vision added from this draft should reap benefits in the overall offense.....the oft injured older RB's didn't help sitting in the tub and I always held my breath hoping BJGE and Woody wouldn't get up limping after every play....the Pats should now have some wiggle room if an injury occurs to them.:rocker:

 

[Patspsycho]

Yeah, they saw it coming because of what Owslek has been saying. They were willing to risk that the Patriots wouldn't ask BJGE do pick up such a critical yard attacking the edge of the defense and knew Brady wouldn't throw to him out of the backfield.

When a defense can feel so confident about something based on the RBs shortcomings, they can cheat to try to stop what BJGE does well, which is pound up the middle.

With all due respect, that play had nothing to do with BJGE. Like I said before they saw it coming a mile away because it was the same play we used in the first half to kill that 4th and 5.

How did they identify? My guess is the ISO (strongside offset) that we had on that 4th and 1, (BOTH Connolly and BJGE were offset strongside) and they shade and overload right side accordingly and literally everyone from the backfield one gaps. It didn't help that we made two errors; Applewhite easily shed Crumpler who fails to lock him up, to shade over his own DE and wrap around. Connolly decides to run into Hernandez, perhaps to propel him forward, and completely misses Applewhite on his outside left shoulder. If he had occupied Applewhite, that would have left BJGE to face only the CB as the play intended.

Some people have argued a better RB would have cut back but the closed side was already collapsing and Gronk had already left for the 2nd level, leaving the FS a clean path to deny the cutback.

 

[BlueThunder]

Outstanding analysis of that play......couldn't have said it better..

Actually...I couldn't have diagrammed it either

 

[Professor Frink]

With all due respect, that play had nothing to do with BJGE. Like I said before they saw it coming a mile away because it was the same play we used in the first half to kill that 4th and 5.

How did they identify? My guess is the ISO (strongside offset) that we had on that 4th and 1, (BOTH Connolly and BJGE were offset strongside) and they shade and overload right side accordingly and literally everyone from the backfield one gaps. It didn't help that we made two errors; Applewhite easily shed Crumpler who fails to lock him up, to shade over his own DE and wrap around. Connolly decides to run into Hernandez, perhaps to propel him forward, and completely misses Applewhite on his outside left shoulder. If he had occupied Applewhite, that would have left BJGE to face only the CB as the play intended.

Some people have argued a better RB would have cut back but the closed side was already collapsing and Gronk had already left for the 2nd level, leaving the FS a clean path to deny the cutback.

OK, I'm gonna defer to you on this, as I haven't watched that game in a few months and you obviously have a better understanding of what happened on that particular play than I do.

However, I still think my overall point stands. BJGE is a real nice player, and I think he can be a contributor to good teams, but he still has his limitations and if you rely on him too much those limitations will hurt your offense.

That, as much as anything, is why they drafted Vereen. They needed a player who could challenge the defense in a larger variety of ways than BGJE can. They needed an upgrade.