Bill Belichick ~ Same Old Story!!

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Off The Grid, May 12, 2012.

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  1. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #3 Jersey

    Year after year, it's The Same Old Thing...

    1 ~ Chandler Jones. #21 Pick in the Nation. Probable Starter. Possible Star.

    2 ~ Donte HighTower. #25 Pick in the Nation. Probable Starter. Possible Star.

    3 ~ Jake Bequette. #90 Pick in the Nation, and for my money, 100% on Par with the other two.

    4 ~ Jermaine Cunningham. #53 Pick in the Nation in 2010. Made outstanding strides as a Rookie, and though he regressed dramatically in a twisted Sophomore year, many do, and I am highly confident of a tremendous resurgence: He already had what it took to quickly earn a starting gig as a Rookie at a new position ~ and an incredibly complicated one. However awful last year was for'm, I have an hard time believing that the kid who managed all that won't be able to play very effectively, indeed, at a position ~ Defensive End ~ that he already has plenty of experience at, now that he'll have a normal off season to work with.

    5 ~ Rob Ninkovich. Established Starter, keeps getting better every year.

    6 ~ Trevor Scott. Stunning steal who has already proven to be incredibly versatile along the Front 7, effective and occasionally brilliant despite being bounced all over the place...And he could develop into a a tremendous force over the next few years, were he to stick around, master his Craft, and develop his Gifts.

    7 ~ Markell Carter. Dark Horse who brings an highly intriguing fusion of Raw Talent, Passion, and Intensity to the table, and who is starting to develop a bit of a Cult Following, hereabouts...and rightly so.

    8 ~ Andre Carter
    . The ultimate Shadow Roster candidate. When he's 100%, and had enough time to take it back through the gears, so to speak ~ I'm thinking: October ~ he should once again be a TERROR.

    That's 8 ~ EIGHT!! ~ highly talented, highly motivated players!! :eek:

    I think we're ALL getting a LITTLE sick and tired of Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) HOARDING highly talented, highly motivated Edge Players, and WANTONLY expending VAST riches in Draft Capital in doing so!! :D

    Will the Madness never END???

  2. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    This from the guy who could only manage a record of 12-4 or better for 6 out of his 12 seasons with the Pats (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011). What kind of crappy performance is that?
  3. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    Realistically, I think that Jones, Hightower, Bequette and Ninkovich are locks for roster spots. Cunningham, the two Carters and Scott are probably fighting for 2 roster spots. I would be happy to see Andre Carter on the "shadow roster", if his leg doesn't heal quickly enough and some other team doesn't snatch him up first. Otherwise, let the training camp competition sort things out - it will make those who survive stronger. I'd be fine flipping the odd man out for a late round draft pick, too.
  4. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster Supporter

    I have A Carter starting the season in the PUP list like Deaderick & Brace last year, I have All 7 on the roster, the guess is that someone in the front 7 ends up in IR and A Carter comes back by game 9.

    My first projection on the front 7.

    DE (4) Brandon Deaderick, Jonathan Fanene, Chandler Jones, Jake Bequette
    DT (4) Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Myron Pryor, Gerald Warren
    ILB(4) Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Donta Hightower, Dane Fletcher
    OLB(4) Rob Ninkovich, Trevor Scott, Jermaine Cunningham, Markell Carter
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    If the Pats sign Andre Carter and PUP him I'm all for it. It depends to some extent on his recovery - if he's fully healed and ready for training camp then that's not an option, and the Pats will have to either sign him to compete with the other guys or let him go elsewhere. But if he's not 100% back I think the Pats have the inside track.

    I think you're exactly right about 16 "front 7" players, with 9 DBs. Mike Reiss notes that the Pats currently have 27 front 7 players on the roster, the most of any NFL team:

    Analysis: Roster heavy on front seven - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

    Discounting rookie UDFA and practice squad players (Justin Francis, Marcus Forston, Alex Silvestro, etc.), in your scenario the Pats will end up cutting Marcus Harrison, Ron Brace, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarpinian, Tracy White and Niko Koutovides.

    As I see it, barring injury:

    DT/DE(5-6): Wilfork, Fanene, Love and Pryor are givens. I think Warren is, too. Deaderick is likely. Ron Brace and Marcus Harrison get cut. Marcus Forston hopefully makes it to the PS, or gets a case of the Foxboro flue. The Pats could keep only 5 here, though I think 6 is likely.

    DE/OLB(4-5): Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette should be givens. Assuming Andre Carter goes on PUP or isn't signed, I see Travis Scott, Jermaine Cunningham and Markell Carter competing for probably 2 spots. A 3rd spot is possible, but I think it's unlikely.

    LB(5-7): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Brandon Spikes and Rob Ninkovich are givens. I agree with you about Dane Fletcher being likely, but he's not a given yet. Jeff Tarpinian, Bobby Carpenter and Tracy White would all be tough cuts. Niko Koutovides is a long shot. I see 6 spots as likely here, but it could be more.

    As I see it, about 10 guys are locks barring injury: (Wilfork, Fanene, Love, Pryor; Jones and Bequette; Mayo, Hightower, Spikes and Ninkovich. Dane Fletcher, Travis Scott and one of Gerard Warren seem likely to me, but aren't sure things. The rest is up in the air.
  6. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- Supporter

    #24 Jersey

    .... and a guy who spreads himself so thin the Biggest Loser rejected his application.
  7. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    Glad to see him stocking the pond at pass rusher but let's not not count that money til the check's cashed. The only one on that list who's proven it in the NFL is Carter, and to a lesser extent Nincovich.

    Carters coming back from injury at an age that makes it questionable (I love the guy, my favorite from last year and I was an early booster here, but what I said is true until he roars back). Production is what counts, and the quality of our cuts don't mean diddly.

    Sorry to be a bummer, but it's time for the gladiators to prove it in the arena.
  8. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster Supporter

    I agree.

    White, Tarpinian and Brace are the toughest cuts. I could see Tarpinian on the PS again.

    Agree with all the above. I like Forston and hope he can be slipped onto the PS maybe with a better contract a la Carter to keep him from being picked up to take Warren's spot inthe future.

    I have all of them on the roster with the projection that Carter will start on PUP to get fully healed. If he is healthy then a togh cut will be made.

    Agreed. I wonder if Tarpinain is still PS eligable.

    T White was the 'toughest' cut for me, here is my complete first cut roster with caveats:

    QB (2) Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet

    RB (5) Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Spencer Larsen, Brandon Bolden

    WR (6) Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth, Brandon Lloyd

    TE (3) Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Daniel Fells

    C (3) Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen, Ryan Wendell

    G (3) Brian Waters, Robert Gallery, Nick McDonald

    T (3) Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon

    DE (4) Brandon Deaderick, Jonathan Fanene, Chandler Jones, Jake Bequette

    DT (4) Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Myron Pryor, Gerald Warren

    ILB(4) Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Donta Hightower, Dane Fletcher

    OLB(4) Rob Ninkovich, Trevor Scott, Jermaine Cunningham, Markell Carter

    CB (5) Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Marquice Cole

    SS (2) Devin McCourty, Steve Gregory

    FS (2) Patrick Chung, Tavon Wilson

    ST (3) Danny Aiken, Zoltan Mesko, Stephen Gostkowski

    PS players: Hartline, Forston, Zuevics, Kettani, Ebert, Ebner, Hix or Tarpinian

    Projections comeback by Cunningham, M Carter steps up (White is very tough cut here) and Bolden is the UDFA who makes the roster this year.

    Lots of tough cuts inc Branch who loses close battle to Stallworth, will not be surprised if this goes the other way. Even losing guys to IR during camp this is a very deep roster, defered to younger players for game day inactives.

    I also am counting McCourty as a S but the backfield will be driven by sub packages and matchup in a given week, so I don't care what we call th DB's to an extent. I like Cole as a ST guy who can actualy play the position if need it. The Jets CB spot was a tougher place to get PT than ours the past couple of years.

    Kept 2 QB's projecting that Mallett emerges as the #2 so a trade for Hoyer with Hartline as a PS developmental QB.

    Of course we know there will be injuries.......
  9. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    It's splitting hairs a bit, but Trevor Scott had 12 sacks his first 2 years with the Raiders. That ought to count for something. But, like Carter, he's had injury issues.
  10. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    I didn't express myself well, I guess i really meant on the team. Obviously, he has some success elsewhere, but that hasn't translated to success here in the past for other FAs either.

    My point being (barring a huge all pro we expect to dominate) we're stocking the pond well, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
    Last edited: May 13, 2012
  11. The Gr8est

    The Gr8est In the Starting Line-Up

    That's probably as a good a roster effort as I've seen, which, of course, will be quite wrong with injuries and surprise emerging players, and possibly a surprise ST guy who wasn't expected; BB highly values ST players, our binkies be damned.

    No mention of Donald "Duck!" Thomas? I think he could possibly displace Koppen, Wendell, or McDonald; I don't see Koppen as "safe", at all.

    Not sure Gerard Warren makes the initial 53 at the loss of a talented youngster; no one else is signing him, and he will be available on the shadow roster, along with Branch and Addai. I expect someone else to remember images of past glories and sign Ocho.

    I'd love to see my binkie Ebner make the 53, but I think Cole, with better, more developed skills as a position player, is a more likely keeper. Ebner may not make it to the PS though if there is another team with an opening for a ST player; especially one found by BB.

    Like last year there will be many difficult cuts, and teams will be monitoring the Pats' final cuts closely, and even our PS will be closely scrutinized.
    Last edited: May 13, 2012
  12. supafly

    supafly Supporter Supporter

    #32 Jersey

    I think there may be some relationship to the possibility of seeing what happens with all of the players as one whole unit first, and then we can see if Koppen fits in or not. Of course if he doesn't show enough he won't have a spot like anyone else, but I think we need to see the situations with Waters and Mankins in late summer first before predicting Koppen's value.

    Those situations will have direct relationships to the possible placement of Gallery at tackle or guard, and will dictate whether or not Connelly may be needed at guard instead of center.

    If everything goes according to plan, like we're all (or many) assuming, then Koppen may not have a spot, but rarely do things ever work out the way that we expect on the injury front.

    Koppen offers a familiarity at the center position, which would allow Connelly to play guard--if needed. I believe that Belichick feels that Connelly is probably a better straight up center than Koppen at this point, but Connelly's efforts may be needed at guard instead.

    I personally think that Koppen is fine to make the team as a depth move in a worst case scenario, and that we'd either have to have another signing or see great TC play from a guy like D.Thomas--that you mentioned.

    As of now, I would have the following: (in no order)



    With 2 out of the following 3 making it, giving us a total of 9 OL:

    McDonald, D.Thomas, Wendell

    That gives us adequate depth at all 3 positions of guard, center, and tackle. I would have Waters, Connelly, Koppen, McDonald, Wendell (or Thomas) as interior linemen; equaling 5 interiors--plus the potential return of Mankins.

    I'd have Solder, Vollmer, Gallery, and Cannon as the 4 tackles.
  13. I would like to take a closer look at the depth of players for the different roles on the defensive front 7. I do not profess to have a great football mind and do not get to see many games because I do not live in the USA. I welcome feedback and criticism as long as it adds to the discussion. Some people may suggest different basic roles than what I have listed. I don't want to get into an argument over whether the base defense will be 2-gap 3-4 or 1-gap 4-3. I expect there to be both 2-gap and 1-gap responsibilities at times regardless of what base defense is used most often.

    2-gap NT - Wilfork, Love, Brace, Warren. I think there is a big dropoff after Wilfork. Does anyone else on the team fit here?

    2-gap DT/DE - Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Brace, Warren. I am not sure Fanene fits here. Has he done 2-gap or mostly 1-gap?

    1-gap DT - Fanene, Wilfork, Pryor, Deaderick, Warren, Love. I prefer Wilfork in a 2-gap role, but he can handle 1-gap. I look at Pryor as better at 1-gap.

    4-3 DE/3-4 OLB Setting the edge - Ninkovich, Cunningham, Jones. Who has shown that he can set the edge? Some may disagree with me, but I have the impression that Cunningham did Ok with this his rookie year. I am projecting that Jones will be Ok with this, though only time will tell.

    DE/OLB Pass rush - Lots of new guys here. Scott, Bequette, Jones, M. Carter, Ninkovich, Hightower. Cunningham showed some ability to pressure the QB, but I am not sure he can do it as well as some of the new guys. I am assuming Fanene and Pryor will be used more as an interior pass rusher.

    ILB Run stuffer - Spikes, Hightower, Mayo, Fletcher. I think we are pretty solid here.

    LB Pass coverage - Mayo, Ninkovich, Hightower ??? Did White and Koutouvides play in defense at times last year for their pass coverage? I think Mayo does Ok. Who do we have that can really do this well?

    As you can see, I have questions in some areas. I am looking forward to some good discussion on this.
  14. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson In the Starting Line-Up

    #37 Jersey

    I would not be surprised to see Tracy White make the roster again this year as a special teams ace and ILB in passing situations.

    As they were touting in the draft, I think the possible positional flexibility of Hightower as an inside or outside LB or even DE may make someone like Cunningham or Markell Carter expendable.
  15. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    Really great job, PF13. I like the way you break it out. Some specific comments:

    I see 9 OLs as likely, which probably leaves 16 spots for the offensive skill players: QB, RB, WR and TE. With 3 TEs probably a give, that leaves 13 spots for QB, RB and WR. Getting down to that number is going to be very challenging.

    Most people will project the Pats carrying 3 QBs. I agree with you - only 2 will be active, and there's not enough room for all 3 guys. If Ryan Mallett shows that he's progressed then Hoyer is expendable, and the Pats should trade him if they can get something for him.

    If the Pats carry 2 QBs that allows them to probably carry 5 RBs (unless they decide to carry 7 WRs). Vereen, Ridley and Woodhead should be locks. That leaves 1 spot for either Joseph Addai or Brandon Bolden, and 1 spot for either Tony Fiammetta or Spencer Larsen. Larsen has the versatility of playing on defense, but Fiammetta made a big difference to Dallas' runnin attack last year, so I'm agnostic on that one, and on whether the Pats end up keeping a fullback vs. a 3rd QB or 7th WR. Like you, I'm hoping that Bolden beats out Addai. I also think that there's a chance Denver cuts Knowshon Moreno, and with his background with Josh McDaniels I could see him being of interest, but that's just thinking ahead.

    I agree with carrying 6 WRs and 3 TEs. The TEs are pretty much set. I agree that Matt Slater is probably a lock, which leaves 5 other spots. Brandon Lloyd is a lock, and probably Jabar Gaffney. Wes Welker is obviously a lock if he is signed, though that's not a given. That leaves about 2 spots between Branch, Ochocinco, Gonzales, Stallworth and Julian Edelman. That's one of the toughest positions to project. Personally, I'm a heretic - I think that the team could be better off going to a "WR by committee" approach with much less of an emphasis on the slot, so I'm not as focused on Welker as others. But that's a heretical position.

    Again, I agree with carrying 9 OLs. Gallery and Cannon's versatility gives the team extra depth. I usually list Gallery as a tackle, but both he and Cannon can play guard.

    You have Logan Mankins not on the roster, so I assume you think he will start the season on PUP. I'm not so sure. If he does, then Dan Connolly will probably start at LG with Koppen at center, and McDonald/Wendell as the backups. Otherwise, I personally think that Nick McDonald will beat out Ryan Wendell. I've heard that the Pats are very high on McDonald and view him as a potential starting center down the road, and that several other teams coveted McDonald last year.

    So my 9 OLs are: Solder Vollmer, Gallery, Cannon; Mankins, Waters, Connolly, Koppen and McDonald. I hope that Markus Zusevics makes it to the PS or is put on PUP/IR because of his injury. I've seen multiple reports suggesting that he could be a keeper.

    I agree with these. Ron Brace and Marcus Harrison are likely cuts.

    I think that Scott, Cunningham and Carter are probably fighting for 2 spots, and that's assuming that Andre Carter isn't re-signed. That opens up a spot for one of Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarpinian or Tracy White.

    I'm not sure if Tarpinian is PS eligible - he played in 7 games, and he's only eligible as a 2nd year player if he was active for 8 games or less. I'm pretty sure he was on the roster for more than 8 games, which would make him ineligible. I also think that he wouldn't make it to the PS. Personally, I'm very high on him and think that the Pats need a coverage LB, but I'm willing to play this one out.

    I don't break down the DBs the way you do, but I do see 9 of them. Chung, Wilson and Gregory are set at safety. I think that Nate Ebner will battle Josh Barrett for the 4th safety spot, though the Pats could carry only 3 since so many of the CBs can play safety as well. I don't see any way the Pats keep Sergio Brown.

    I've listed 5 "CBs": McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore and Denard. That lives Will Allen and Marquice Cole out of the picture. It's entirely possible that the Pats could keep 6 "CBs" with one or more of them rotating to safety for depth. Again, I'm fine letting it all get sorted out in training camp.

    Seems like a given.

    That would be nice. I could see Forston and Zusevics going on PUP/IR. Ebert is I think very likely. I'm not sure Ebner makes it to the PS, and I think he could make the team.

    I do think that Markell Carter steps up and Jermaine Cunningham rebounds, but there is a numbers crunch. I could see someone being traded during training camp. I think that BB will keep at least one of White/Tarpinian/Carpenter for their ST and coverage ability.

    I agree with most of this. Again, great job - one of the best I've seen.
  16. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster Supporter

    Yeah I should have noted that I have Mankins starting the year on PUP as well as A Carter. With the depth at OL I can see them being careful with Mankins.
  17. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #3 Jersey

    The only one you're bumming out is yourself, Brother Ray. [​IMG]

    Nobody ~ except you ~ is talking about "counting money" YET, as the liberal use of the words "probable" and "potential" in the OP presumably made crystal clear. :rolleyes:

    The point was: At long last, Brother Bill has loaded UP!! :rocker:

    Honestly, if we're reasonably healthy ~ knock, knock!! ~ I have NO idea what can stop us, this Winter. :eek:
  18. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing On the Game Day Roster

    #11 Jersey

    I feel the same way, and I certainly hope you're right. The way our defense has been added on to, I can certainly see a dramatic turn around from the past several years.
  19. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    If you'd followed my posts from about 5 years ago, you know you'll get a Hallelujah from me on that. I was hyping the drafting of OLB and ILB to the point of annoying a couple prominent posters here (at least).

    However, though i applaud the effort, I wait to see the product, not the hype. Getting the right results is what counts. the ammunition and competition are very encouraging but no points are on (or off in this case) the board yet.

    Case in point, what a big difference from "veteran pass rusher" Burgess to the same in Carter. Going to be a great camp and preseason for sure.
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