Beware the Trap game - On to Buffalo

[pwes]

If anything, one could argue that the CLE game may pose more of a threat as a trap game, if you believe in such things.

Was just about to post this. Cleveland would be the trap game if anything. Several players coming back including Tommy. If we beat Buffalo even more so. Easy to go in overconfident because they are a terrible team and they play us like its their superbowl.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I think the trap game is Arizona buffalo. If wrecksie is SO obsessed with the pats, he is probably looking past the cardinals to play in their annual Super Bowl.

 

[fightingirish595]

Do you remember that jaguars game a few years ago in Jacksonville, that game to me was one.

Its the NFL. Anyone can win or be beat. there is no such thing as a trap game in pro sports

 

[FoxWhiskey]

 

[supafly]

I'm not sure that I'd call a west coast team (until the time change halfway through the season) traveling to the east coast "a given," especially with a low 4 point spread, but I'd agree that ARZ looks like it should win.

That said, I'm very leery of betting this so called "obvious" game, even with the stark difference in talent and circumstance. According to BetLabs and their system, since 2005, when an ATS winner from a previous week is coming west to east, they are only covering about 29% of the time. The number gradually gets lower the further they move across the country, which is why it's so low by the time they get east. It's not quite as dramatic for a west coast team (coming off an ATS cover) who is traveling to say, the mountain time zone (38%), but it's still not good.

If you're considering ARZ, it may be a good idea to buy yourself a full point and take it down from -4 to -3, just in case they eek out a late victory via FG, or BUF scores a garbage time TD down 10. Another important unknown variable would be the changing of OCs. A scaled down playbook may help/hinder Tyrod Taylor. Finally, there's the question of how much Watkins may play. Of course, all of this analysis may be pointless if you simply believe that the Bills just suck.

Never question the system. The numbers don't lie.

Wishing I had the balls to have pulled the trigger. Sonofa*****.

 

[aluminum seats]

People and especially media just love their narratives. I'd argue the the concept of "momentum" is the same ********. Yes, I certainly get that players gain/lose confidence due to events in a game and it can make a significant impact on their individual performance but the way media portrays this is just asinine.

My favorite example was when we were playing the Eagles last year. We go up 14:0 and have "all the momentum" but the decision to try a dropkick that cost us maybe 10 yards took away all that momentum and gave it to the Eagles so they could mount a comeback. WTF ? Just two plays later we had them at 3rd & 10+ which by the "logic of momentum" should have given it back to us.

All those concepts are just lazy ways to put a game that is full with randomness, dozens of moving parts and important individual matchups into some kind of story without having to look in depth at what happened.

Except if you watch sports you know those narratives are often true.

 

[JMC00]

No way will Bill be overlooking this one

 

[Uptown]

BUF winning this game against AZ essentially assures a Pats victory next week.....we've seen this movie before..

 

[FourierSeries]

We're definitely winning. I hope we bring in some bum like Matt Flynn or Peyton Manning to start just to make the loss hurt that much more for Buffalo.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

It could be a thrashing...or it could be a slugfest. I think this game is gonna be tough.....just have a feeling.

 

[AtomicDawg]

Yeah no traps here, all BB has to do is put on Rex PCs...

 

[RobertWeathers]

It could be a thrashing...or it could be a slugfest. I think this game is gonna be tough.....just have a feeling.

It was a tough game last year. Division games are often dicey. If it was 23-20 Pats I would not be surprised.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Oh well. I was hoping the Bills would lose today so that I wasn't bombarded with obnoxious Bills fans who feel they have a glimmer of a hope next week.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Not after what Wrecks said about Pats and especially dissin BB right after their win today at his presser.

 

[Mark.]

Rex has had this game circled since January. It's his Superbowl. With a few extra days, I hope BB has something very special planned for the Bills.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Wrecks looooves stickin his 'Foot' in his mouth, SHOOT, anyone's!
Rex Ryan wasting no time talking Patriots: ‘If [Bill] Belichick’s playing quarterback, we’re coming after him’

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

31-20 Pats

 

[ausbacker]

Yeah no traps here, all BB has to do is put on Rex PCs...

Mega inferiority complex over compensating through boastful commentary. Never seen that before from Rex.

 

[Ivan]

Pretty scary playing the OFFSEASON CHAMPIONS.

 

[XLIX]

To me, a trap game is when one team plays against an inferior out-of-division opponent, especially if they are coming off a big win or they are looking ahead to a big game the following week. Their preparation and intensity level is down, their focus is elsewhere.

The Browns game is the type of game that would potentially be a trap game, but I think the Patriots will be focused given that that is Brady’s first game back.