betting trends make Pats a LOCK

[SeauOUCH]

I was a bit worried about this game until I saw the oddsmakers gave the Patriots a huge number. ( opened at 9 ) I know everyone always says Vegas makes its money by getting equal money bet on both sides & making the vig. I used to be a bookie several years ago I can tell you this simply isnt true. I used to have 3 customers that were basically my personal atm machines, I would look at the lines when they came out on tuesday and I could predict almost exactly who they would be betting on sunday. ( the 3 of them didnt know each other but they bet the same games 99% of the time ) They would NEVER win.
Since I've left the booking business I look at betting trends for my gambling decesions. I went 7-0 this bowl season by betting on teams were at least 70% of the money went on the opposing team. As of today 80% of $ coming in going on the Jets. In addition to this from watching ESPN all week, quite a few analysist are taking the Jets & those that are taking the Pats all like them "in a very close game".

all this = Pats in a blow out Sunday 34-7


The only thing that has me worried is one of my friends has an extra ticket for me :rocker: but the only other 2 games I've gone to this year were the Jets & Denver games

 

[denverpatsfan]

Third time's a charm! Keep the positive vibes going.

 

[shirtsleeve]

I was a bit worried about this game until I saw the oddsmakers gave the Patriots a huge number. ( opened at 9 ) I know everyone always says Vegas makes its money by getting equal money bet on both sides & making the vig. I used to be a bookie several years ago I can tell you this simply isnt true. I used to have 3 customers that were basically my personal atm machines, I would look at the lines when they came out on tuesday and I could predict almost exactly who they would be betting on sunday. ( the 3 of them didnt know each other but they bet the same games 99% of the time ) They would NEVER win.
Since I've left the booking business I look at betting trends for my gambling decesions. I went 7-0 this bowl season by betting on teams were at least 70% of the money went on the opposing team. As of today 80% of $ coming in going on the Jets. In addition to this from watching ESPN all week, quite a few analysist are taking the Jets & those that are taking the Pats all like them "in a very close game".

all this = Pats in a blow out Sunday 34-7


The only thing that has me worried is one of my friends has an extra ticket for me :rocker: but the only other 2 games I've gone to this year were the Jets & Denver games

Bet the Pats and sell your ticket!

 

[patsfaninpa]

I call it the Costanza theory. Spread is begging people to bet on the Jets. Go the opposite way.

 

[Triumph]

How can you tell it will be a blowout? And, do Bookies/Vegas use graphs like those at FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS to project future trends?
http://learnflash.virtualave.net/DVOA_17/

Also, whats your opinion of NE @ 7 - 1 to win it all and Dallas @ 9 -2 to win the NFC?

I felt a whole lot better about Dallas 3 weeks ago as you can imagine. Maybe there is time for Tuna to right the Soap Opera, but Dallas's secondary is horrid. The only saving grace this week is Seattle's is just as bad.

My winning picks this week are both roadies KC and Dallas on Saturday and both home teams NE and Phil on Sunday. No spread.

 

[Michael]

I don't see this being a close game at all. They beat them 24-17 in week 2 and the next time they met the Pats were coming off a late Sunday night game while the Jets had a bye. Plus all the other variables that have been brought up that are not the same this time as they were last time. I believe the Pats will win this by a minimum of 2 scores over the Jets.

 

[SeauOUCH]

Well I cant be sure it will be a blow out but I've learned over the years when everyone expects the game to turn out a particular way ( in this case a very close game ) usually the opposite happens. Even my friends ( all season ticket holders who religiously bet on the Pats every week ) arent betting this week because "Giving 9 points is INSANE".

All week on ESPN whenever they mention this game they also mention how the Jets already beat us at home this year. What they fail to mention is we had TONS of injuries in that game, we were playing in a mud pit, we were coming off a very deflating monday night loss to the Colts ( also lost #37 that night ) and were playing a HUGELY motivated, healthy & rested Jets team that had 2 weeks to get ready for us. Also according to ANALysist Mangini is the 2nd coming of Jesus.

Hmm I have no clue about Dallas, their defense is HORRID but the Seahawks dont impress me either. In case you were curious so far 58% of money is betting on the Seahawks so far. If I had to pick I'd go with the Cowboys but its a crap shoot imo.

my other picks are..

Giants ( 73% of $ going on Eagles plus everyone is picking the "hot" team )

Colts ( 67% of $ going on Colts, but the public has to win once in awhile, plus the Colts are very good at home)

oh I hate the Dallas NFC champ bet @ 9-2, no way in hell they win 3 road games in a row ( even if the NFC blows )

Pats are worth a small bet at 7-1 but having to go through S.D & then probably Balt is going to be TOUGH. ( especially S.D, LT is the kind of back that can run on our D, we DOMINATE big backs but I have a bad feeling LT will make our LB's look old & slow )

 

[IcyPatriot]

Smerlas on WEEI today was saying that:

"Pennington has alot of air under his balls" ...

He got a laugh for that and then I thought ... Wilfork will take that air away. Seriously though ... how did the Jets make it to the playoffs.

 

[Water Boy]

Well I cant be sure it will be a blow out but I've learned over the years when everyone expects the game to turn out a particular way ( in this case a very close game ) usually the opposite happens.

On the contrary, the overwhelming majority of posters on this site and many in the local media think the Pats are going to demolish the Jets.

 

[borg]

Questions: How do you come by these percentages... why isn't the line coming down if there is such a huge imbalance...is the 70% number based on dollars or number of bettors??? Thanks in advance.

 

[Fogbuster]

I was a bit worried about this game until I saw the oddsmakers gave the Patriots a huge number. ( opened at 9 ) I know everyone always says Vegas makes its money by getting equal money bet on both sides & making the vig. I used to be a bookie several years ago I can tell you this simply isnt true. I used to have 3 customers that were basically my personal atm machines, I would look at the lines when they came out on tuesday and I could predict almost exactly who they would be betting on sunday. ( the 3 of them didnt know each other but they bet the same games 99% of the time ) They would NEVER win.
Since I've left the booking business I look at betting trends for my gambling decesions. I went 7-0 this bowl season by betting on teams were at least 70% of the money went on the opposing team. As of today 80% of $ coming in going on the Jets. In addition to this from watching ESPN all week, quite a few analysist are taking the Jets & those that are taking the Pats all like them "in a very close game".

all this = Pats in a blow out Sunday 34-7


The only thing that has me worried is one of my friends has an extra ticket for me :rocker: but the only other 2 games I've gone to this year were the Jets & Denver games

Catchy name, SeauOUCH, and good story, too.

I don't think it will be such a blow-out as you predict, but I'm definitely liking the Pats' chances. A win is all I care about. Though some of the trash-talking from the Jests' fans makes me want to run the score up, I hope BB & Co, the team, just do it what they do best.

Let's keep climbing to the peak!!


//

 

[PatsMyBoyz!]

all this = Pats in a blow out Sunday 34-7

I'm with you. JMO but this won't be close at all;Pats totally dominate this one in a blow out.:rocker:

 

[Johnny Mac]

Wagerline has the betting at 60-40, for the Jets.

 

[DougGabriel2007]

I don't really mean to crap on anyones theory but I spend a fair amount of time betting on the NFL and I don't think you can use the whole "the line moved this way so bet the other side theory", usually line moves don't come from the general public, they come from large betting syndicates. I really do not want to start an argument about this, but if anyone wants a good book on pro betting, checkout Stanford Wong's "Sharp Sports Betting"

That being said, if anyone cares....I like seattle today with the line just moving to -2.5 even though the large sharp money is probably on Dallas since it moved from 3 (playoff games dont move off 3 often or for no reason)

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

I looked at the 9 points the Jets got as a sucker bet. Vegas knowing that there would be a lot of money put on the Jets to cover that spread, but these guys aren't billionaires because they are lucky.

I too come from the thought that betting lines that move a point or more usually end up being good for Vegas, bad for the bettors. And with that in mind, I have thought all week that New Englands chances of a blowout were increasing.

But I will leave you with one last thought. I used to live in Alaska and have followed the Iditarod every year. One particular year, there was a close race between two sleds. However, the musher in the lead had bred and trained several of the dogs of his closest pursuer. When asked if he was worried about getting passed by his opponent he laughed and said "I raised his dogs, and they know who thier master is".

I think of the Mangini and Belichick relationship the same way. Belichick raised that dog Mangini and there is no way he is going to take the master.