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Betting question for Vegas gurus...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Oct 18, 2009.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    In the NFL, how many points would you give a team coming off a bye week? Some teams would do better than others due to coaching, but overall, what is the average amount of points you would give them? For example, having home field advantage is generally accepted as a 3-point advantage. Is the bye worth that many points? More?
  2. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't claim to be a Vegas Guru, but here's how I think about it for an office pool with a big $5 a week on the line.

    If a team is playing at home after a Bye, I will give them the advantage on a low spread. So, if team X is coming off a Bye, is playing at home against a team to whom they would normally be an underdog and is a less than six point dog on the spread, I'd pick them to beat the spread.

    So, to answer your question, I think of a home field after a bye being worth about three points.

    The history of a team coming off a bye is also important. The Pats, for example, tend to do very well after the bye.

    On the road, it's not that clear to me. And it's game by game. Last week, for example, I took Atlanta over the niners even tho they were on the road and dogs and did pretty well by it.
  3. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rookie

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    Though the public assumption is that a team coming off a bye has an advantage by having additional rest and recovery and two weeks to prepare for an opponent, stats show that their winning percentage is not significantly higher so the advantage is nil.

    Does that mean that there is no impact on the line? Not necessarily because public perception does drive the line so for a very high profile game (primetime) it could have that bye team laying an extra point but probably not much more than that.

    Sharp bettors won't avoid taking a team facing an opponent coming off a bye.
  4. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    IIRC the winning percentage coming off of a bye is still a tad less than 60%

    Not as high as one would think

    Some teams do well continuing their momentum, some do well with 2 wks to prepare
  5. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I wouldn't give a team coming off a bye any extra points. They're just as likely to come out and look rusty and out of synch due to a change in their normal pattern of doing things. They could be in a better situation healthwise, but that's going to vary from team to team regardless.

    If there were certain scheduling things to look for, I'd say there are two: one would be to avoid a team playing on the road after playing on Monday night. You're already losing one day to prepare and heal for the next game due to playing MNF, now you're losing more time with the extra road travel. The other to try to avoid is teams travelling across three time zones. Jacksonville in Seattle was a good example of what can happen with that long road trip.
  6. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Good advice.

    Just to break it down a little more, teams who LOSE on MNF and then travel the next week, have a little less than 15% chance of winning. That's a good one to keep an eye on.
  7. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    while a team MAY get some consideration coming off a bye, the major factor influencing the line is the money bet one way or the other.Most bettors favor a team coming off a bye unless there's a clear separation in talent between the two teams.
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