Betting Lines are Meaningless (2016 version)

[fightingirish595]

Looked at the Lines for this week. They are really tough. By far the hardest week so far this year, atleast from what I have seen

 

[1960Pats]

Looked at the Lines for this week. They are really tough. By far the hardest week so far this year, atleast from what I have seen

You shouldn't be looking at the lines. They're meaningless.

This week I go with Ten, Cincy, Atlanta, NE, NYJ (although I'm tempted to take the Browns), Detroit (reluctantly), KC, Seattle, Oakland, Denver (sadly), Carolina (they have to win another game some day), Dallas and Minny.

 

[fightingirish595]

I had a pathetic week

 

[1960Pats]

I had a pathetic week

Mine was pretty good.

Straight up I went 9-3-1.
Against the lines I went 8-5.
Wins - Ten, NE, NYJ, KC, Oak, Den, Car, Dal
Losses - Cin, Atl, Det, Sea, Min
I changed two games just before I committed and ended up losing

Once again there were only 2 games where the line mattered, the Was-Cincy game (tie not cover) and the GB-Atl game (win but not cover).
There were also 9 games with the favorite covering, which is pretty high.

 

[1960Pats]

4) 8-7 +30
5) 5-7-2 -270
6) 8-5-2 +250
7) 8-6-1 +140
8) 8-5 +250
Total of 37-30-5 +400

That dinner and drinks for a couple has turned into dinner and drinks for 4. And I'll pick Atlanta in the next game in jolly old England.

 

[fnordcircle]

I'm up by around 2400 net right now. Had a 6 out of 6 week that helped, but mostly just betting the pats every game has been more reliable than my paycheck.

Definitely my best year of gambling. I was winning enough on the Pats that I decided to break from my rule about not betting on other teams before week 10. From week 10 on my accuracy in the past has shot up considerably versus the beginning of the year when it's just impossible to tell how teams are going to play. Learning that I was basing too much early season gambling on the previous year's performance was a costly lesson but I took it to heart.

 

[1960Pats]

I'm up by around 2400 net right now. Had a 6 out of 6 week that helped, but mostly just betting the pats every game has been more reliable than my paycheck.

Definitely my best year of gambling. I was winning enough on the Pats that I decided to break from my rule about not betting on other teams before week 10. From week 10 on my accuracy in the past has shot up considerably versus the beginning of the year when it's just impossible to tell how teams are going to play. Learning that I was basing too much early season gambling on the previous year's performance was a costly lesson but I took it to heart.

In looking at the numbers I noticed the same thing. The picks get easier as you get into the season more and can judge the teams.

One of the things I do each year is to combine 6 or 7 power rankings and track the records of the better ranked teams. I use two sets of rankings, one that only gets adjusted each week and another that re-adusts the rankings for the entire season as we go along. The record in the 2nd group is well ahead, 92-26-2 to 68-50-2.

 

[1960Pats]

Below are my picks for this week. Who cares about the spreads? They don't matter anyway.

Pitt (with or without BR), KC, Miami (the Jets only rival), Minny, Philly (tho I don't like that they have to come back after playing Dallas in Dallas with a game in NY after the Giants had two weeks rest), Dallas, Carolina (the refs take care of the squeaky wheel), Saints, Packers, SD, Denver, SEATTLE CUZ OF THE NOISE.

 

[1960Pats]

Once again the results say the same thing. There were only two games where the favorite didn't cover. There were also two ties with the spread.

The season total after 133 games is;
61 games won and covered by the favorite.
49 games won by the underdog.
14 games won but not covered by favorite.
9 ties

This week I had a record of 8-5 outright but vs the spread I was horrible, 4-7-2.

4) 8-7 +30
5) 5-7-2 -270
6) 8-5-2 +250
7) 8-6-1 +140
8) 8-5 +250
9) 4-7-2 -370
Total of 41-37-7 +30

So much for the dinner for four with drinks.

I almost want to take the Browns tonight, but I just can't get myself to do it.

 

[1960Pats]

Picks for this week;
Bal, Car, Hou, NO, Atl, Chi, GB, Was, SD, Ariz, Dall, NE, Cincy

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'm sure this has already been said, but the betting lines only reflect how many people are betting on each team.

The "House" always wins - but only as long as an even number of people betting on each side. So the line is set in such a way to keep balance by setting a "win by" handicap in order to win the bet

So the latest line generally reflects all bettors confidence that a given team will win or lose by a certain amount - which is a nice way to demonstrate a "poll" of football bettors as to how much better one team is than another - but has nothing to do with the game itself.

Whether the line is accurate is irrelevant to Las Vegas et al - as long as it resulted in keeping betting $$ evenly distributed Las Vegas et al make money and THAT's what's important!

 

[1960Pats]

The new totals are in. There have been 161 games so far in the NYFL and in only 17 of those games did the line matter.

Winner won and covered - 73
Loser won game outright - 62
Winner won but didn't cover - 17
Ties - 9

I manged to bounce back after a rough week last week with a 10-4 record and 9-5 vs the spread.

4) 8-7 (+30)
5) 5-7-2 (-270)
6) 8-5-2 (+250)
7) 8-6-1 (+140)
8) 8-5 (+250)
9) 4-7-2 (-370)
10) 5-9 (-490)
11) 9-5 (+350)
Total of 55-51-7 (-110)

Now I have to wash dishes to pay for the dinner and drinks for two that we had and I'll have the leg-breakers coming for their cash.

 

[1960Pats]

I'm sure this has already been said, but the betting lines only reflect how many people are betting on each team.

The "House" always wins - but only as long as an even number of people betting on each side. So the line is set in such a way to keep balance by setting a "win by" handicap in order to win the bet

So the latest line generally reflects all bettors confidence that a given team will win or lose by a certain amount - which is a nice way to demonstrate a "poll" of football bettors as to how much better one team is than another - but has nothing to do with the game itself.

Whether the line is accurate is irrelevant to Las Vegas et al - as long as it resulted in keeping betting $$ evenly distributed Las Vegas et al make money and THAT's what's important!

We agree on that for sure. There is a line though and if you bet you have to deal with it. My position is that you can bet and not even look at the line. If you pick winners you'll probably win no matter what the lines are.

 

[1960Pats]

My picks for week #12
Detroit (I hate taking this overrated team), Dal, Pit, Atl, Bal, Buf, Ten, NYG, Hou, Mia, NO, Sea, Den, Oak, NE, Philly

 

[jmt57]

This week may be one in which the betting lines actually do matter.

For example:

1. Can Washington keep it close (say within 3-4 points) at Dallas?
2. Can Indy keep it within 7 or 8 points versus Pittsburgh?
3. Can the Bears keep it with 3-4 points against Tennessee?
4. Can Jacksonville stay with 6-7 points at Buffalo?
5. Does Arizona make it a close game at Atlanta?
6. Can the Niners stay within a TD at Miami?
7. Can the Rams do the same at New Orleans?
8. Can the Giants go on the road and win by more than a TD?
9. Can Seattle travel cross country and win by more than a TD?
10. Can the Jets keep the score within a TD at home vs the Patriots?

I am not at all implying that all of those underdogs are going to cover, but to me, in my opinion, there are a few games this week where if you choose to place a wager it would be wise to look at the spread and not just pick the team that you think will win.

 

[fightingirish595]

Im not into teasers, but this week was a teaser week for sure with some of those lines. There were quite a few Dogs that covered but did not win because of the large spreads.

Here were some bets i made this past weekend.

 

[fnordcircle]

Rough 3 weeks betting on the Pats. I did some side action on other teams as well which was a little better.

Seattle was an obvious loss.
I pushed on San Fran, thanks for the missed XP Ghost!
I lost against the Jets @ -8, thanks for the missed FG Ghost!

 

[1960Pats]

This week may be one in which the betting lines actually do matter.

For example:

1. Can Washington keep it close (say within 3-4 points) at Dallas?
2. Can Indy keep it within 7 or 8 points versus Pittsburgh?
3. Can the Bears keep it with 3-4 points against Tennessee?
4. Can Jacksonville stay with 6-7 points at Buffalo?
5. Does Arizona make it a close game at Atlanta?
6. Can the Niners stay within a TD at Miami?
7. Can the Rams do the same at New Orleans?
8. Can the Giants go on the road and win by more than a TD?
9. Can Seattle travel cross country and win by more than a TD?
10. Can the Jets keep the score within a TD at home vs the Patriots?

I am not at all implying that all of those underdogs are going to cover, but to me, in my opinion, there are a few games this week where if you choose to place a wager it would be wise to look at the spread and not just pick the team that you think will win.

I'm sorry I missed this post. It was a good one.

There were actually 5 games where the spread mattered and I won all of those games but I lost all of them on the spread. Too bad I didn't pick all of those underdogs, but then I'm not looking at the spreads.

 

[1960Pats]

Im not into teasers, but this week was a teaser week for sure with some of those lines. There were quite a few Dogs that covered but did not win because of the large spreads.

Here were some bets i made this past weekend. View attachment 14941 View attachment 14942

As it turns out that was the week with the highest number of teams who won but didn't cover, 5. That puts the season total after 12 weeks at:
80 games won and covered by the favorite.
66 games won by the underdog.
9 games tied the spread.
22 games won by the favorite but not covered (that makes it 1.5 of those games per week, the same average as most seasons).

My picks this week are;
Dal, KC, Bal, Chi, Phi, GB, Den, NE, Det, Oak, Was, NYG, Sea and Indy
I'm already 1-0 vs W/L but 0-1 vs the spread.