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Belichick's challenge

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Kasmir, Jan 11, 2010.

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  1. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    KC Joyner has said that great coaches have 10 year lifetimes in this league. By that measure, Bill's time is up. It remains to be seen if Bill recognizes that he needs to re-invent himself, and whether he has the ability to do so.

    Like many before him, Bill is a victim of his own success. Coaches like Harbaugh and Payton consciously credit Bill as having inspired their approaches to organizational excellence. Because of his extraordinary success, every organization in the league has studied the Patriot way, and have not only tried to incorporate its best features but also to better it. Everything about Belichick's system has been dissected and analyzed. What was fresh and new in 2001 is now well understood and even predictable. That's the very competitive phenomenon driving the KC Joyner conjecture.

    On defense, Bill's system is now predictable, and even tired. His "bend-but-don't-break" defensive style is failing in the face of the potent offenses enabled by the cumulative rule changes. Look at what Rex Ryan has been able to accomplish this year in New York with his fresher, pressuring approach.

    On offense, Bill was both inspired and lucky in picking up Moss, Welker, and Stallworth in 2007. But has drifted into a terribly predictable reliance on Brady to Welker under the threat of Moss. Now Moss is older, Welker is seriously injured, and Stallworth and Gaffney are gone. And every defense in the league is scheming and recruiting to stop that attack. It's no accident that the best two pass defenses in the league are both in the AFC East.

    With Pioli, Bill had a unique ability to manage the cap and a ruthless philosophy of purging stars just past their prime, and replacing them with cost effective veterans that were fits for his unique system. Now neither his approach nor his system are unique. Value is being lost faster than it is being replaced. We all fear that Belichick will now stubbornly lose his one great player on defense, Vince Wilfork.

    On top of this is Bill's hubris in the face of it all. His organization has been gutted; the losses of Crennel, Weis, Pioli, Mangini, and McDaniel et al have not been made good. Bill Belichick, the game-day defensive coordinator, believes he can make do without an offensive coordinator? I can only imagine how desperate the scrambling must have been this last week as he attempted to re-target the offense away from it's deadening dependency on Wes Welker, all without the help of an experienced offensive coordinator. While trying to get the whole team ready for the Ravens. For a guy who made his reputation as a coordinator, it's remarkable how casually Bill Belichick has come to disrespect the position.

    The league, learning from Bill, has caught up and is now surpassing him. The deep belief in the very principles that have made him one of the greatest football coach/gm's of all time now also acts to make him predictable.

    It's very difficult to scout yourself objectively, and to realize that some deeply held beliefs may no longer be operant or productive. He needs to realize he needs help, and needs to bring fresh ideas into his organization, if he is to ever have any hope of returning to pre-eminence in his profession. It won't be easy, and it's probably not even obvious to Bill that it's personally worth it for him to try, or even if he can succeed. But surely he doesn't want to end up like Paul Brown, Al Davis, Don Shula, or Joe Gibbs, coaching on long after the magic was gone.

    Retire or reinvent, Bill. In any case, it was a great, great run, perhaps the greatest of all time. But we'd sure like to see you prove KC Joyner wrong.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2010
  2. Curtis Martin

    Curtis Martin Banned

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    The Pats have better players on defense than the Jets yet the Jets are better. The Jets only great player is a corner. Bill needs to change something.
     
  3. slash83

    slash83 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Jets LB's are better then the Pats.
     
  4. loloooooooooooo

    loloooooooooooo Practice Squad Player

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    Bart Scott, Kris Jenkins, Darrele Revis, Shaun Ellis, David Harris, Kerry Rhodes, all bad? What are you smoking? We got Wilfork Warren and who else? Mayo is probably the closest to great.
     
  5. Hebeill

    Hebeill 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think the ten year life cylce pertained more to the days when the roster didn't change much. Now with FA the team can be turned over, that way the coaches message doesn't get old so to speak.

    I think BB has to look in the mirror after this loss and realize that he needs to go out and try to find some decent assistant coaches. Another factor imo is the loss of veteran leadership
     
  6. Curtis Martin

    Curtis Martin Banned

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    Shaun Ellis and Kerry Rhodes are terrible. Jenkins has been out all year.
     
  7. loloooooooooooo

    loloooooooooooo Practice Squad Player

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    Jenkins played for half the year, and I'm sure Rhodes is at par with Meriweather, and Ellis is probably better than anybody not Warren. Seriously, our D has NOBODY.
     
  8. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    Rhodes sucks.
     
  9. Brady2Welker

    Brady2Welker Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    We , as fans need to look at this situation very carefully with a glass of homerism in one hand and a glass of skeptical media in the other.

    While you could argue with the fact that Bill Belichicks defensive schemes are tired and old, it's important to first look at the personnel who implement the scheme. Take for example the Colts defensive strategy, they run a 4-3with two incredible DEs that bring so much pressure on the edges to collapse the pocket that the other team has to make quick throws or utilize a lucky escape to really look downfield. That works for them because if they can do a few 3 and outs they let manning take the lead and then they can force the other team to pass; ergo feeding their pressure scheme more.

    Look at Minnesota, terrible secondary, but good pash rush. So short of a few instances where it fails, they usually can make the stops.

    Jets have arguably one of the best CBs currently who when matched up with a WR well allows Rex Ryan to throw his kitchen sink blitzes because the other teams main reciever is taken away. This strategy is less effective on multiple skilled wr teams. Eg the saints.

    Simply put with new Rules, pressure is key look at every playoff team. All of them bring good pressure. That's something we don't, and because of that our lb deficencies are exposed. As well as corners, personally I think this defense is still one of the better ways to run 3-4, we just lack the personell to do it.

    As for offense, this seasons a trainwreck. Poor OL play, no running game. Forcing Brady to move around or out of the pocket, and as we know that is his weakspot. But with welker gone he can't make quick plays because none his recieverw are getting separation. Especially becuase we rarely run teams can let their ilbs blitz too.

    We have a lot of holes, and need a miracle.
     
  10. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    IMO Bill still has sufficient capitol to continue for a while, as far as reinventing goes... quite sure he will hunker down and do some things differently next year.. these late bandwagon fans slay me, probably been listening to Dennis and Callahan too long.. with a healthy dose of Ron Borges.
     
  11. NJPatsfan26

    NJPatsfan26 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Agree with you. This is getting out of hand....

    If no one wants to believe that Belichick will make changes in the off season or at the very least get some rest from it all, its nuts.
     
  12. RhodyPatriot

    RhodyPatriot In the Starting Line-Up

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    What??? :rolleyes:
    The Jets have a better defense than the Patriots, better players at more positions. They also have a MUCH better O-line, running game, TE and depth at WR than the Patriots do.
    Years of poor drafting and refusing to pay (they're cheap) for quality depth has finally caught up to the Patriots.
     
  13. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think BB has huge challenges in several areas:

    1.) We need more coaches. Our OC should not also be the QB coach. Our personnel front office guy should not also be the assistant WR coach. BB needs to flesh out the staff and as he says "every coach needs to do HIS job". Not the job of two separate coaches.

    2.) We need play makers on defense. The muscle of the 3-4 defense is the D Line and we have a stout one, but the heart and soul of the 3-4 defense is the linebacking core and we have a dreadful set of linebackers. Our OLB's are the worst collection of OLB's in the history of the franchise. Our ILB's are NOT play makers nor do they appear to be leaders. Mayo makes NO big plays. His only contribution seems to be making a tackle 3-4 yards downfield. There are thousands of linebackers that can do that. And Guyton should not be anything more than a backup.

    3.) On offense we need Brady to rededicate himself to this team and we need Brady to use all his weapons. Center and Left Tackle remain weak spots on the line and both Guards are FA's.

    4.) Contract work. BB has a ton of work to do here with all the impending FA's. Hopefully he has a plan for dealing with the holes that will be left when these players leave.

    This could be BB's greatest off season ever and put us back on track for another round of winning, or it be more of the same old BB retread city.
     
  14. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    SB or winning the division and looking like an average playoff team?
     
  15. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Go be the Jets fan you really are meant to be.
     
  16. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    at this point, the jets do have a better defense than the pats do....that is clear.

    they also have a better OL than the pats do.

    fact is, the pats try to get by with gimpy high-end skill guys, and sometimes it worked......but the pats have become ridiculously prone to being abused by more physical teams. the current version cannot deal with rough play

    in the next year, the pats must go back to their roots ...... physical play was what got this team 3 SB's.... physical play was what used to make peyton manning look stupid.... trying to turn brady into another manning (at least stat-wise) makes for very entertaining football, but there is almost no chance for success for the pats if they continue to pursue this.....brady has never won a thing when passing for more than 4000 yards
     
  17. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I would like more physicality also but this year they were also abused by finesse teams as well.
     
  18. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't believe that Belichick has lost anything off his fastball. The Pats still have an incredibly strong organization and he is still clearly at the top.

    However, I do believe that Belichick has a plan to go out on his own terms...not retiring because of age, health or inability to put 100% into his job. Since it would potentially disruptive to leave in the middle of the current labor situation (and its effects on the cap, draft, etc.), it should be safe to say he will be around the next two years.

    But.....I predict that will be it. He will be 60yo and Brady will be winding down his career. The team will have just loaded up with 6-7 top 50 players in the 2010/2011 drafts and should be in solid cap shape. He likely stays on in some transition capacity but turns over the coaching reins to......

    Jon Gruden

    Belichick and Gruden spoke together at UF early in 2009 and spoke glowingly of each other since. Later in 2009, with several coaching jobs sure to open up, he signed an extension with ESPN and took himself out of the running for any potential openings...without even knowing yet what those openings would be. I don't remember the source, but I seem to remember him saying that he wouldn't return to coaching for 2-3 years.

    Total speculation on my part but it seems to make sense. Belichick goes out with his team still competing for championships (important to his legacy). Gruden gets a roster with some key veterans in place (including Brady and Mayo) and a horde of talented youngsters, but one that will be looking to transition to the post-Brady era. Kraft gets a bright, young coach with a championship on his resume and the Belichick stamp of approval.
     
  19. TommyBrady12

    TommyBrady12 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I definitely think BB is at fault here:

    1. Weak to marginal offensive line

    2. no pass rush

    3. suspect secondary

    4. bad playcalling from the coordinators
     
  20. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    I was gonna lambaste your post until I started reading about gruden......I would love to see Gruden here.......hire him as OC/assistant head coach much the way BB was here when parcells was head coach.....give it a year or so and then hand over the reigns......

    chucky would be great.....although I do not believe they share the same philosophy on defense
     
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