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Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by crowell33, Apr 11, 2010.

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  1. crowell33

    crowell33 In the Starting Line-Up

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  2. StraightCashHomey81

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    I prefer to call it the "Jimmy Johnson List"

    In "Patriot Reign: and "The Education of a Coach:, it is discussed how Belichick applies advice he received from Jimmy Johnson regarding the NFL Draft. Johnson, the head coach and architect of the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the 1990s, is widely considered one of the best Draft Day decision makers in NFL history. Throughout his time with Dallas, he was able to parlay veteran players and high picks into multiple picks that produced players that built three Super Bowl champions (sound familiar?). He even helped to invent a chart that assigned a numerical value to every pick in the draft, which is still used in varying degrees by NFL teams to make draft day trades today.
    Johnson advised Belichick to make a list of twenty to thirty prospects, made up of likely 1st and 2nd day picks that he would like to add to the Patriots, and find a way to get as many of them at the right value as possible.

    For example, before the 2004 NFL Draft, Belichick had four players in mind for their first pick of the draft, #21 overall: Vince Wilfork, Deangelo Hall, Dunta Robinson, and Jonathan Vilma (they drafted Wilfork). The rest of his first day list included a few players at various positions, including eventual Patriots draft picks Tight End Ben Watson, Defensive End Marquise Hill, and safeties Gus Scott and Dexter Reid.
     
  3. Armchair Quarterback

    Armchair Quarterback In the Starting Line-Up

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    I'm not very happy knowing this, espicially if this is the result.
     
  4. upstater1

    upstater1 Pro Bowl Player

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Deangelo Hall is interesting because clearly he's a head case that made the list.

    Belichick is nothing if not thorough, so you can bet he has gone back to his notes to check to see if this method works. If, for instance, he had ex-ed guys out for personality issues prior to the draft, has he checked to see how many of those questionable characters have performed in the NFL? Are they problematic now? Compared to players with solid characters? For instance, what if someone had Deangelo Hall and Dunta Robinson as solid citizens, but had eliminated Chris Gamble and Pacman Jones from consideration? Do you go back and say, WOW, Deangelo is a wacko, but Chris Gamble hasn't caused any trouble. Do you add it all up and say, my methods for looking at character traits are only 50% correct--and therefore useless. Or is he on target 75% of the time--and therefore the shortlist is valuable.

    After a decade of drafting, BB no doubt has looked back to see if the shortlist works.
     
  5. StraightCashHomey81

    StraightCashHomey81 Practice Squad Player

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    I think criticism of the Patriots drafting should be directed not on their philosophy in approaching the draft (finding value, system fit, short board, etc) but rather their evaluation of available players. On the surface, the idea of simply picking the players you really want on your team seems obvious; something every NFL team would do. However, too many teams pick players for the sake of picking more players, whether it is because of fan/media pressure or a desperate and false hope that by simply picking more players, they will have a better chance of finding good players. This goes to the Patriots steadfast belief in value. By sticking to their board, the Patriots can select players for whom they have a strong conviction on and then use other draft choices to trade up or acquire higher picks in subsequent drafts. If you want to critique the Pats in regards to the draft, focus on who they select, not on how they select them.
     
  6. mgteich

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Yes, we have 12 picks. Let's see what we get. Could we do as well as last year when, one year later, all 12 (plus an UDFA) are expected to make the 53 man squad or the Practice Squad? Will we be able to secure four 2011 starters?
    ====================================
    Last year, we ended up with 9 players who made the roster, 1 on the Practice Squad and 2 on IR, plus we had an UDFA make the squad. Presumebly that meant 10 useful picks.

    There were four players who got considerable playing time and are expected to start in 2010: Vollmer, Butler, Edelman and Ingram.

    There are at least two more that should be contributers in 2010 (two out of Tate, Pryor, Chung, McKenzie, Brace and Ohrnberger).

    Hoyer is our backup QB and should be a #2 or #3.

    The remaining two are likely to be on the Practice Squad: Bussey and Richard.
    ==============================================

     
  7. DaBruinz

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)


    Why not? Is Belichick supposed to be clairvoyant and know that Guss Scott is going to blow his knee out 2 years straight?

    Is Belichick supposed to know that Marquise Hill is going to die prior to the start of the kid's 4th season.

    Is Belichick supposed to know that Watson would blow his knee out 2 games into his rookie season???

    Seriously, some people need to use their brain and not just react.

    Dexter Reid was a 4th round pick. He spent 2 years with the Pats before he was cut. But during those two years, the kid was excellent on special teams, but a poor back-up on the field.
     
  8. Armchair Quarterback

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    I have many times in many other threads about many of their draft choices (one even earlier today). Now I find out that they may have been picking from a board of only 25 and it might explain some of their choices. A short draft board IMO will most likely result in reaching for and/or over-drafting players. In the '04 draft the Pats picked Watson with the 32nd pick and Marquise Hill with the 63rd. The Arizona Cardinals picked Karlos Dansby with the 33rd and Darnell Dockett with the 64th. It's not up for debate as to who are the better players and I am taking into consideration what happened to Hill- in three years he played in 13 games and had 2 tackles. Jared Allen was taken after both Scott and Reid and Michael Turner was drafted after Cedric Cobbs. If their board really was only 25 that year and it had Hill, Scott, Reid and Cobbs on it it may explain some curious choices. Where any of Dockett, Dansby, Allen or Turner even on their board? If they weren't and the guys the drafted were, then it is a flawed system.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2010
  9. sbpatfan

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    One word: hindsight.
     
  10. MaineMan

    MaineMan 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Once.

    Reportedly once. PFT calls it "The Rumor Mill" for a reason, y'know.

    Interesting how this immediately becomes "the Patriot Way" solely under the control of BB (as if Pioli and Dimitroff never had any input).

    So, sure, I can see the Pats often doing somewhat more extensive "pre-weeding" than perhaps many other teams, but I'm certain the actual prospect count varies widely from year-to-year and position-to-position.
     
  11. Armchair Quarterback

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Read the bold part of your answer and then go look in the mirror. To answer your other questions Scott and Reid were both considered by many draft experts as nothing more than potential special teamers in the NFL. Belichick probably should have known that. Reid however spent only one year with the Pats not two if you want to get your facts straight. Hill was with the Pats for three years played in 13 games and had 2 tackles, are you saying it was a good pick? As far as Watson, instead of your childish question, it should be asked why they drafted an underachieving college player based solely on his physical measurables.
     
  12. Crazy Patriot Guy

    Crazy Patriot Guy Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    How can you say it's a flawed system? They zeroed in on the guys they liked and went with them. Of course it doesn't work out sometimes.

    To me though, having a bigger draft board doesn't change anything. Whether they have 25 players on their board or 250, they'll still have their favorites. If they had Michael Turner on the board along with Cedric Cobbs, wouldn't they have still taken Cobbs?
     
  13. Armchair Quarterback

    Armchair Quarterback In the Starting Line-Up

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Point being that IF the Pats had narrowed it down to to only 25 than chances are that they didn't have Michael Turner on that list but they did have Cedric Cobbs for whatever reason. Maybe narrowing the field to only 25 takes some people off your list that might be desrving of another look. Maybe having only 25 players on your list makes Dexter Reid a 4th round pick rather than a 6th or 7th round pick.
     
  14. DaBruinz

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Considering that Hill had Jarvis Green, Mike Wright, Ty Warren, and Richard Seymour in front of him and the O-line crediting him with being able to mimic guys like Freeney, yes, I consider an End of second round pick a good pick. Do you honestly think these guys turned his locker into a basically a shrine that is still there just because of what he did off the field?

    How was Watson an "underachieving college player" who was drafted "solely on his physical measurables"? Do you have PROOF of that? Or are you just talking out your rear end? My guess is the LATTER since you have ZERO proof of what Belichick was thinking when they drafted Watson. Or are you basing it on Watson's senior year when he had 21 catches while missing parts of several games due to an ankle injury that he re-injured several times during his senior season?
     
  15. Nonentity

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    Twitter / New England Patriots: Don't believe everything y ...

    I guess we can close the thread now :rolleyes:
     
  16. DaBruinz

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    My guess is that it was 2007 that BB had only 25 people in his draft board. It's well known that the Patriots Scouting Department, BB, Dmitroff, and Pioli hated the prospects for that draft year. It's one of the reasons they were so willing to trade the 2nd and 7th for Welker and then the 4th for Moss. And they traded their 3rd round pick after Stewart Bradley came off the board.

    One of the great things about how you talk is that you speak in hindsight. You totally disregard that you have no idea how these guys handled themselves in their interviews with the Pats staff. You have no idea how they did in the film room or when breaking down plays.

    All you have is assumptions that these players would have developed the same way if they'd been on the Pats and your flawed hindsight. Neither of makes you smarter.
     
  17. Crazy Patriot Guy

    Crazy Patriot Guy Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    I see what you're saying, but we shouldn't assume they forced themselves down to 25 and they refused to put any other players on the board. I highly doubt that the team erased names of players they loved off the board because "We can't have more than 25! I don't care if he'll probably be a pro bowler!"

    You used Guss Scott and Dexter Reid as an example of how we reached on players. I just read a scouting report on a player that "lacks the top upside for the next level" and was projected as a late 6th round pick. It seems that the Chiefs reached on Jared Allen.

    As sbpatfan said, it's hindsight.
     
  18. captain stone

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    That's absolutely disgraceful. Inexcusably, incompetantly disgraceful. Reeks of laziness & arrogance.

    No wonder Bill's drafts have almost completely sucked in 2004, 2006, 2007 & 2008, and might explain Brace, Tate, OBurger & Bustey.
     
  19. patchick

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    re: Belichick uses short draft board (note: "25 players" debunked)

    More lazy and arrogant than not bothering to read the thread and discover that the 25 number is total fiction and has been debunked? ;)
     
  20. StraightCashHomey81

    StraightCashHomey81 Practice Squad Player

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    Re: Belichick uses short draft board

    Actually I think the Jimmy Johnson method helps prevent over drafting and reaches. With a short list, you avoid taking a player you don't have a strong conviction on on that spot in the draft. This explains why the Patriots are one of the most active teams on draft day. When the highest ranking guy on your board doesn't have a grade that equates to equitable value at that draft slot, you trade out. In addition, you pick up extra/future draft selections. With a longer draft board, there is a better chance of selecting players you may not believe in as strongly.
     
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