Belichick the contrarian Moneyballer of the NFL

[Triple-T]

He won 3 Super Bowls. Other teams have won 8. What am I missing?

perspective

 

[eom]

it kind of bothers me a little when people refer to belichick as a contrarian, or some kind of evil machiavellian genius --- ok, maybe not the second one --- I don't think he gets enough credit for being a smart football guy, and for just his common sense.

I won't sit here and pretend I can guess ahead of time at which picks he'll make, but really none of these are big head scratchers.
I won't say i had him picking the back to back rb, but that's only because I had him looking for one later in the draft or picking some guy up in fa --- we clearly needed bodies at the position.

and I won't say I had him picking up mallett, but who could say the guy would slide down to us in that spot, and if he really turns out to be a franchise qb you just can't get those guys in the 3rd, so I'd categorize that as more opportunism.

the rest of the picks seemed pretty straightforward, and I think the trading down to harvest picks, or banking them and collecting interest, as one guy put it, just seems like a common sense thing that maybe many simply can't afford to do because you need to have surplus wealth to invest ---- he's built himself a stockpile of wealth through excellent football acumen and working his ass off.
meanwhile, most coaches in the league live paycheck to paycheck.

 

[Fencer]

I agree strongly with the general concept! However ...

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones. Not obvious. I don't think BB has traded out of the first round once except when he was trading into next year. He hasn't simply traded down from the first all that much, and he even traded up once.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions. What's your evidence that other teams care about them any more than BB does?
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term Absoposilutely!!!
4. The league undervalues position versatility. You're talking mainly about defense, right?
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution. Yes, although the gap has been narrowing since early in the BB regime (after he smoked Cowher in the AFC Championship game with a 17-point swing on STs in a 7-point game).
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ. Indeed.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

I think that last point needs some re-work.

 

[Sfpat]

The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.

I think the pundits and media experts get their information from the NFL Scouting Service which most teams, with few exceptions, subscribe. The Pats are one of the exceptions and scout and evaluate players according to their system, not the generic NFL system. That's why everyone is amazed with how the Pats draft because the pundits are all reading from the same book, which is different than the Pats book.

 

[hellolin]

The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.

I think the pundits and media experts get their information from the NFL Scouting Service which most teams, with few exceptions, subscribe. The Pats are one of the exceptions and scout and evaluate players according to their system, not the generic NFL system. That's why everyone is amazed with how the Pats draft because the pundits are all reading from the same book, which is different than the Pats book.

Also I believe the packers and steelers have their own book as well~~~thats why they are just as successeful, instead looking at the colts, recent years they went with the NFL book and got all the busts as much as they can

 

[eom]

I agree strongly with the general concept! However ...

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones. Not obvious. I don't think BB has traded out of the first round once except when he was trading into next year. He hasn't simply traded down from the first all that much, and he even traded up once.

I think that last point needs some re-work.

I thought he traded out of the first a couple years ago.

 

[Observer]

Absolutely. But Belichick knows this... the draft is a crap shoot.

Which is why he doesn't give a crap about the players that the talking heads tout.

He's looking for "his kinda" player... and while he knows he's going to strike out with many if not most, only by consistently drafting "his" players - rather than the ones that the media and fans decide he should take, will he be able to perpetuate his system.

In other words, "volume, volume, volume" is the general rule of thumb when it comes to drafting effectively.

There's more to it than that of course but ultimately, most of the guys drafted this year won't make it - regardless of which GM selected them.

You can't ignore that. Belichick doesn't which is why he's always stockpiling draft picks - which are often used to gain valuable veterans, i.e. Welker and Moss.

Another difference for fans this year is they forget we couldn't trade draft picks into players. Once things are settled BB will be free to work a deal with next years picks - which may be why you saw some stockpiling of future draft choices again this draft.

It's all very fascinating when you can really appreciate the chess game that Belichick has played all along here.

I understand your point, and there is no denying that Belichick is the best coach in the league. My main worry about the pats and I pointed that out in the other thread as well is that we don't have many real playmakers on the team. We are as strong as we are mainly because of Brady - who is in a class all his own. I am worried that consistently picking volume is going to make us a team that is very consistently good but not good enough.

I watched soccer for a long time before I started following the NFL (after I moved to Boston) and I worry that our team is going to become like Bayern Munich. They are solid at every position and consistently good and young as well. They typically win the Bundesliga and make it to at least the quarterfinals of the champions league. But that is when they lose to the heavy hitters like Barcelona, Man U, Real Madrid etc. who will bring the genuine star power and you see the difference between the men and the boys. The last time Bayern won the champions league was around 2001.

We cannot pick the ultra talented athletes in the draft because we draft low and we are not active enough in FA in bringing in the heavy hitters. In last year's draft we got a few players of real quality that you could say are better at their position than the guy on most of the other teams. What we got this year, we will have to wait and see. I am concerned that we seem to shy away from the elite as a matter of policy and I don't know how we can make a champion team without champion players.

 

[VJCPatriot]

People want to complain BB didn't spend picks?

1st round pick #17
2nd round pick #33
2nd round pick #56
3rd round pick #73
3rd round pick #74
5th round pick
5th round pick
6th round pick
7th round pick

I count 9 selections by the Patriots.
And FIVE of those selections were in the top 75.
The Pats have scooped what THEY felt were the cream of the NFL crop and come away with 5 players from this year's draft class.

Whether or not you FELT those were the RIGHT players doesn't matter if the Pats felt those are the guys they needed to change what they wanted for the good of the team.

And apparently BB felt that offensive line, corner, and RB were all positions of major need.

He also scooped up a QB he felt was the top rated QB in the draft. And in terms of physical tools? Mallett looks like he is indeed the #1 QB in the draft. Character questionmarks? BB interviewed him personally and felt comfortable with him. Whether or not he pans out who knows but the sky is the limit for that kid. He'll go as far as he will allow himself to.

Oh and on top of that they again have an extra 1st and 2nd round pick for next year's draft class. And that future value will be very real a year from now to help this team continue to improve or fill holes that open up due to free agents leaving.

 

[Kasmir]

It's like I said in the other thread: Belichick is trying to generate an extra 2md and 3rd every year, by trading forward a 1st and a 2nd. Fans don't understand this and are impatient and frustrated that he every year trades a 1st and a 2nd forward to generate next years extra picks. It's like a trust fund; the kids aren't satisfied with the interest and want to spend the principal set aside by the parents.

 

[Patspsycho]

It's like I said in the other thread: Belichick is trying to generate an extra 2md and 3rd every year, by trading forward a 1st and a 2nd. Fans don't understand this and are impatient and frustrated that he every year trades a 1st and a 2nd forward to generate next years extra picks. It's like a trust fund; the kids aren't satisfied with the interest and want to spend the principal set aside by the parents.

That and the great depth the team already has gives him the luxury of being picky in this and future drafts. His job security is a huge plus.

 

[TheSolderKing]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

this is the BEST thread of the day. Thank you

 

[Kjmass1]

As a Pats fan in DC, the Redskins would die for a year with BB results.

 

[dmb88886]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.

Actually, I'd go ahead and say that BB undervalues first rounders, and that maybe he needs to look at his own history. The Pats 1st vs. 2nd rounders the last 10 years:

1st rounders
Total picks: 10
# of pro bowl players: 6
Total pro bowl appearances: 16
# of all-pro players: 6
Total all-pro selections: 12

2nd rounders
Total Picks: 14
# of pro bowl players: 1
Total pro bowl appearances: 3
# of all-pro players: 2
Total all-pro selections: 2

 

[TheSolderKing]

He won 3 Super Bowls. Other teams have won 8. What am I missing?

He actually won 5 2 w/ G-men



don't forget #6 for BB would be ours if it were not for the PHANTOM PI versus the Colts

 

[Poker]

The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.

Actually, I'd go ahead and say that BB undervalues first rounders, and that maybe he needs to look at his own history. The Pats 1st vs. 2nd rounders the last 10 years:

1st rounders
Total picks: 10
# of pro bowl players: 6
Total pro bowl appearances: 16
# of all-pro players: 6
Total all-pro selections: 12

2nd rounders
Total Picks: 14
# of pro bowl players: 1
Total pro bowl appearances: 3
# of all-pro players: 2
Total all-pro selections: 2

DMB--I hear you on this, and looking at Belichick's own 1st vs 2nd round results you may be right about his own picking. By my assertion, I meant that the rest of the league, as measured most typically by the point chart many teams use, is weighted to be very top heavy. Meaning, a team normally pays a really dear price to move up. Witness the big trade of round 1 this year with the Browns getting a king's ransom from Atlanta to sell their high pick.

 

[Poker]

One other one I thought of, looking at who Belichick drafted this year and also in other years...

8. Perhaps the rest of the league overvalues the downside impact of injuries to college players, and there is value to be exploited by taking players other teams pass on b/c the guy missed some or all of his last year in college.

-- Ras I Dowling, Gronkowski last year, probably others?

 

[eom]

I understand your point, and there is no denying that Belichick is the best coach in the league. My main worry about the pats and I pointed that out in the other thread as well is that we don't have many real playmakers on the team. We are as strong as we are mainly because of Brady - who is in a class all his own. I am worried that consistently picking volume is going to make us a team that is very consistently good but not good enough.

I watched soccer for a long time before I started following the NFL (after I moved to Boston) and I worry that our team is going to become like Bayern Munich. They are solid at every position and consistently good and young as well. They typically win the Bundesliga and make it to at least the quarterfinals of the champions league. But that is when they lose to the heavy hitters like Barcelona, Man U, Real Madrid etc. who will bring the genuine star power and you see the difference between the men and the boys. The last time Bayern won the champions league was around 2001.

We cannot pick the ultra talented athletes in the draft because we draft low and we are not active enough in FA in bringing in the heavy hitters. In last year's draft we got a few players of real quality that you could say are better at their position than the guy on most of the other teams. What we got this year, we will have to wait and see. I am concerned that we seem to shy away from the elite as a matter of policy and I don't know how we can make a champion team without champion players.

I don't know jack crap about soccer, but does your team have the same payroll as those celebrity teams?

I perfectly understand where you're coming from, and I realize we get a close up look at some of the more mediocre picks, while those of other teams drop unheralded out of sight, leaving us with the impression that other teams scoop all these studs, but I'm not so sure belichick is really averse to star players.

we pretty consistently draft near the bottom of the first, so he doesn't really evenget a shot at these 'superstars' --- whether or not they're worth it would be another discussion.

I will go back to 2001 and we'll take a look..........

2001 6 - seymour DL
2002 21 - graham TE
2003 13 - warren DL
2004 21 - wilfork DL
2004 32 - watson TE
2005 32 - mankins OL
2006 21 - maroney RB
2007 24 - meriweather S
2008 10 - mayo LB
2009 23 - traded out
2010 27 - mccourty CB
2011 17 - solder OL

first of all
8 of these 12 picks are in the bottom third of the round, with 2 of them actually the last pick.

now, while the matt millens of the world are loading up on WR in the first round, belichick used about half these picks on linemen, which I sometimes think are largely invisible to many fans as they don't produce fantasy stats, but I'd say linemen are the key to winning football, and I'd also say belichick nailed some pretty good ones:
seymour
warren
wilfork
mankins
solder(?)

of the 6 non-line picks, 3 were defense:
meriweather
mayo (droy)
mccourty (2nd to suh for droy)
I'd say he got a pretty good haul there.

of the 3 offensive 'skill' positions:
graham
watson
maroney
I'm wishing he would've stuck with linemen or defensive players....
that's more just aimed at maroney, though.

 

[eom]

One other one I thought of, looking at who Belichick drafted this year and also in other years...

8. Perhaps the rest of the league overvalues the downside impact of injuries to college players, and there is value to be exploited by taking players other teams pass on b/c the guy missed some or all of his last year in college.

-- Ras I Dowling, Gronkowski last year, probably others?

well, to be fair about it, belichick is already sittin' on a roster that's a perennial sb fav, and he tends to get twice as many picks as most teams --- he can afford a few gambles.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I love watching the Belichick sycophants constantly talk out of their bums when it comes to draft value. It really is hilarious guys.
Belichick had 2 1's, 2 2's, 2 3's and all his did was fill roster spots.
The spin we're hearing now is this was a weak draft. Not for DL/OLB it wasn't but none could play for Belichick.
For the patriots this was a treading water draft.
This team is not any better now than it was pre-draft because no players taken are upgrades over who they'll replace next year.
Problem is in the NFL if you're not improving then you're backsliding. There is no standing still in the NFL. This was a standing still draft.
It's never a good sign when the one player everyone is excited about is a QB who will contribute years from now if he ever does.
Poor draft.

Stand still draft? Hardly.

It was the first concerted effort to rebuild the Offense with Belichick deciding the Defensive rebuild was about done. We added a starting Left Offensive Tackle, to go with the two we have, so the Tackles situation is repaired for the new generation. Levoir provides competent depth, as does Light and Kaczur.

Mankins is still young and Connelly broke through this year. We added a big Guard in Cannon too.

We have another year to add to the grooming C in Ohrnberger and Wendell who are being prepared to replace Koppen.

The TE situation is finished with adding a blocking TE to eventually replace the Crumpler role, and he can take over the LS job too. Most of the WRs are young and a part of the new generation. Welker, Tate, Edelmen, Price and even Branch is still comparatively young.

Now the RBs are all of the new generation, with BJGE, Woodhead, Verene, and Ridley.

Even the QBs have depth now, and a possible next generation Field General. That was hardly "standing still".

 

[SteveBsFan]

I'm glad I have access to a forum with so many people smarter than the Patriots coaching staff and scouts. It's pretty cool!

Serious though, why do so many complain about the picks? I am not one who thinks BB makes no mistakes, and I know there are other great front offices in the NFL (Steelers and Colts are definites there), but I do know they know a ton more than 99.9999% of people who post here.

Are they always right? No, but no front office is, especially with the draft.

I do know I have learned to trust their judgment, it's not like we're rooting for the Raiders or Bills.