Been beaten to the ground...but why?

[ClevTrev]

What do you want them to do, say don't bother tuning in? And why do you care so much about pre game spin... Maybe what we did taught them to never say never. Maybe they hate to see this team go undefeated. Maybe they are just closet Giants fans.

I wish we could talk about and enjoy this team and this game and football here and quit whining about the media or taking polls or rehashing spygate or behaving like smack talking trolls. You know, act like we've been there before...

That we can't here anymore is what I find truly annoying.

Excellent post. This is football where each team has a chance to win. Given the competitiveness of the Giants through the playoffs, it shouldn't be any other way. What better way to test each team's capabilities than to face a tough opponent. The game is decided on Sunday. Until then, the analysis will be over the top with varying opinions due to the massive exposure of this game. Remember the media drumbeats prior to facing the Rams, the Panthers, and the Eagles. Many expected each team to win. This is the Super Bowl.

At some point this week, it will be refreshing to read and post to some threads discussing game strategy. Until then, others can get their knickers in a twist over the mindless commentary so typical of this stage before the game. There are better things to do.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Over at SI, Dr. Z predicted that the Giants win and Don Banks predicted that the Patriots win.

Dr. Z was on the front page of the last edition. Don Banks was not.

In other words, there's no "news" in predicting a Pats' victory. These guys don't care about being "right" or "wrong," they care about getting publicity and selling magazines, newspapers or website "hits."

 

[patchick]

The Patriots have stolen prescience from the gaggle of analysts this year. What fun is it to say, "The Patriots will win"? After all, they ALWAYS win. At least this year, they do. So, if you want to set yourself apart as a smarter-than-everyone-else football talkinghead, the only way to do it is to predict upset.

Well put. Basically, it's a risk/reward calculation.

Let's say for the sake of argument that there's an 80% chance the Patriots win. Then let's put the value of the various predictions, in Media Status Points, as follows:

- Correctly predicting a Patriots win: 1 MSP
- Correctly predicting a Giants win: 10 MSP
- Incorrectly predicting a Patriots win: -2 MSP
- Incorrectly predicting a Giants win: -5 MSP

That makes the expected values of the picks:

Patriots: .8(1) - .2(2) = .4 MSP
Giants: .2(10) - .8(5) = -2 MSP

In other words, the Patriots are the "rational" pick in terms of having the best expected value, but the maximum return on that pick is low. It's like putting a dollar in your savings account vs. buying a lottery ticket. You know the lottery ticket has a negative expected value, but sometimes you take the chance at the jackpot.

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea if those calculations are right or if this post makes any sense at all, and I am too lazy to read back over it and check.

 

[GhostOfFoxboro]

Wait. Are you actually OFFENDED that people in the media say the Giants have a CHANCE to win? That's hilarious.

HOW DARE the media say the Giants could even possibly beat the Patriots!

 

[PatsDparty]

Anyone who picked the Pats to beat the mighty Rams must have been an idiot then. Upsets happen, and what the media says really means nothing, so save yourself the anxiety and just don't pay attention to it.