Bedard's Jacksonville film review - Brady right to call out offense

[captain stone]

oline has been a big concern for last 3-4 weeks. other than texan game and even that game in the 2nd Q , brady was hit a lot. fins/texans/49ers and jags all have gotten after our oline alarmingly.

Eggs-actly, Batman.

Bill must invest at least one early-round pick next April on an interior OLman. Wendell at Center and
Connolly at RG is not the answer for 2013; Mankins' replacement for 2014 or 2015 needs to be found,
and who knows what happens with Vollmer in free agency.

 

[Deus Irae]

Cutting Mankins doesn't become any kind of an option until 2014, and even in 2014 it would only save the Pats $2M against the cap. Since there's no way they can replace his production with $2M, I expect that Mankins will be around for 2 more seasons then get the ax in 2015.

Man, that contract looks really bad in hindsight. Pats have to get some young talent on the interior of the line, probably starting this offseason.

His contract is fine. The problem is that it's a year late. It should have hammered out the year before, but the Patriots decided to go into their penny wise/pound foolish mode. As far as the overall deal goes, though, it's what was to be expected, and Mankins has earned it, despite the claims of some.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Bedard's Jacksonville film review-Brady right to call out offense

His contract is fine. The problem is that it's a year late. It should have hammered out the year before, but the Patriots decided to go into their penny wise/pound foolish mode. As far as the overall deal goes, though, it's what was to be expected, and Mankins has earned it, despite the claims of some.

That's pretty much true. The team rectified their mistake with a 6 year deal and a $20M signing bonus, so they pretty much paid Mankins up front for lowballing him. There's no doubt that Mankins earned a long term deal - I for one am not arguing that. But I'll be very surprised - pleasantly surprised, if it happens - to see him play out the entire deal.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Bedard's Jacksonville film review-Brady right to call out offense

That's pretty much true. The team rectified their mistake with a 6 year deal and a $20M signing bonus, so they pretty much paid Mankins up front for lowballing him. There's no doubt that Mankins earned a long term deal - I for one am not arguing that. But I'll be very surprised - pleasantly surprised, if it happens - to see him play out the entire deal.

Well, it's a 6 year $51 million deal with $30 million guaranteed, and most of the non-guaranteed money isn't an issue until, as has been pointed out, about 2015. That means, basically, that years 5 and 6 of the deal are the padded years, by design, especially since they're the years with the highest base salary hits. So, if the Patriots were to cut Mankins loose after 2014, Mankins would hit the market at 32/33 years old, and will have collected about $37.5 million over 4 years.

So, while I think Mankins will have to be playing at a high level at ages 33 and 34 in order to keep the restructuring downward issue off the table come the end of the 2014 season, I also think that Mankins and his agent saw that coming, since the contract seems set up to avoid that as any kind of problem for 2/3 of the deal. Any restructuring before that will likely be the sort that gets him more money guaranteed, rather than some kind of money loss.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Bedard's Jacksonville film review-Brady right to call out offense

Well, it's a 6 year $51 million deal with $30 million guaranteed, and most of the non-guaranteed money isn't an issue until, as has been pointed out, about 2015. That means, basically, that years 5 and 6 of the deal are the padded years, by design, especially since they're the years with the highest base salary hits. So, if the Patriots were to cut Mankins loose after 2014, Mankins would hit the market at 32/33 years old, and will have collected about $37.5 million over 4 years.

So, while I think Mankins will have to be playing at a high level at ages 33 and 34 in order to keep the restructuring downward issue off the table come the end of the 2014 season, I also think that Mankins and his agent saw that coming, since the contract seems set up to avoid that as any kind of problem for 2/3 of the deal. Any restructuring before that will likely be the sort that gets him more money guaranteed, rather than some kind of money loss.

I agree that Mankins and his agent probably saw that coming. He got $30M guaranteed and will probably end up getting more, and to my mind that made up for any of the nickel and dime tactics that he had to endure up to that point.

As for restructuring, you may be right. There's little incentive for him to do so, and little reason for the Pats to believe that giving him more years or more guaranteed money would be a good move, so they may just be stuck with their deal for 2 more years. We'll see. It's a huge cap hit, and with a flat cap it will have a potentially big impact on the team's ability to address other areas, especially if Mankins' isn't able to play up to his cap level, no matter how heroic he is.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Bedard's Jacksonville film review-Brady right to call out offense

Kudos for Mankins' agent for getting him that deal that brings him serious, real money for years. He's sacrificed his body doing above and beyond in that regard. Not like some big $ players who go all MLB weenie with injuries. Despite those heroic efforts injuries have made him not worth the $. Got Pro-Bowl on rep & name recognition. Too bad for Logan, and the Pats.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

So if Brady, Welker, Branch, Woodhead and Ridley came to play that leaves ...

- Hernandez
- Lloyd
- Hoomanawanui
- Bolden (12 snaps), Fells (8 snaps), Vereen (3 snaps) and Aiken (3 snaps)
- The OL

The thing that stands out to me is that Jacksonville - a team known for getting poor pressure all season - pressured Brady on almost 48% of his drop backs despite blitzing only 11% of the time. That can't happen.

Needs to be said again, that can't happen! The 9ers did it to TFB way too much of the game without over doing the blitzing. The Jags did it. Even the Phins did it a few weeks ago. That CAN'T happen! The Patriots thrive on, the very heart of the team is "give TFB time and we kill ya! Blitz and leave receivers one on one and we kill ya!". Teams can pick their poison but we will kill ya either way. We have the QB and the receivers to do it. The last component is the pass protection. And if the OL is not holding up their end and is allowing the defense to drop back 6 and 7 pass defenders yet TFB is still under quick pressure? Forgetaboutit - the Patriots are going to lose in the playoffs (most unfortunately).

 

[patsfanincleveland]

The Pats blew them out last time, yes, but the Pats also blew the Jets out in 2010 and coughed one up in Foxborough a month later.

Further, with the issues on the interior OL (which is what I was talking about in my OP), JJ Watt could potentially wreck more havoc in a re-match than he did in the first meeting. The Bengals are another team in the AFC that can exploit that weakness without having to blitz.

And now I await your intelligent and well thought out response.

A complete state of oblivion to the fact these two teams actually met two weeks typically means a complete refrain from questioning anyone's intelligence.

Ya know, the kettle/call/black thing.

Those of not completely oblivious to actual past events would understand the past history of Wade Phillips vs a creative Rex Ryan.

Ofcourse, if a poster doesn't know something happened 14 days ago, why would they take the time to understand two coaching careers of activity.

 

[Kontradiction]

A complete state of oblivion to the fact these two teams actually met two weeks typically means a complete refrain from questioning anyone's intelligence.

Ya know, the kettle/call/black thing.

Those of not completely oblivious to actual past events would understand the past history of Wade Phillips vs a creative Rex Ryan.

Ofcourse, if a poster doesn't know something happened 14 days ago, why would they take the time to understand two coaching careers of activity.

Within one week, San Fran beat down the Patriots in Foxborough, then were decisively blown out by Seattle. Things change for football teams from week to week. When it comes to the Texans, they'd be facing a much more banged up interior OL than they did a few weeks ago. Also, there would most certainly be adjustments. I can guarantee you that Phillips will not go with mostly press man coverage on the outside against Brady after seeing what happened the first time around. That would free up Watt to wreak havoc against a banged up Connolly and overwhelmed Wendell.

As for the differences in coaching between Phillips and Ryan, you're more than welcome to explain the differences in each scheme to me. Please do so in stark detail.

 

[Welkerstache]

It is amusing that we constantly hear the Patriots don't pay for past performance; we're told their philosophy is to pay for expected future production.

Yet in this thread, we read that Mankins "earned" his deal, because he "sacrificed his body".

Completely absurd.

The Pats should have projected that the 30-ish Mankins was out of gas, and acted accordingly, just as they should have projected that Welker had plenty left, instead of kneecapping him with an insulting offer.

Recently they've blown it on performance projection for big money talent over and over:

- Ocho (lol)
- Mankins
- Welker

Does Pioli need to return? Dimitroff? What is the answer?

 

[mayoclinic]

It is amusing that we constantly hear the Patriots don't pay for past performance; we're told their philosophy is to pay for expected future production.

Yet in this thread, we read that Mankins "earned" his deal, because he "sacrificed his body".

Completely absurd.

The Pats should have projected that the 30-ish Mankins was out of gas, and acted accordingly, just as they should have projected that Welker had plenty left, instead of kneecapping him with an insulting offer.

Recently they've blown it on performance projection for big money talent over and over:

- Ocho (lol)
- Mankins
- Welker

Does Pioli need to return? Dimitroff? What is the answer?

Pioli and Dimitroff aren't coming back, and I don't particularly want Pioli.

I'll buy that the Pats messed up on Ochocinco (terrible trade and contract for a WR who I never thought was likely to fit) and misclaculated on Welker. They screwed up mainly on not locking up Mankins sooner, and then perhaps over-reacting with his long term deal when they did commit. He wasn't out of gas when he came back in 2010, or for the first part of 2011, so I think you're being a bit harsh.

Anytime you make a long term big money commitment to a player there's a risk if that player is unable to play up to the level of their deal, whether due to injury or other reason. It's a gamble. Mankins had been extremely reliable, and I don't think there was any reason to believe that he had hit the wall at age 29. Whether he has, or whether he just needs to get heatlhy from his current run of problems, remains to be seen.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not sure I understand that one. Both guys have shown nice flashes at times during the season, and we may need every man we have during the playoffs. I can understand that they won't be the featured options, but Bedard's view seems a bit extreme.

He drew this conclusion based upon a grand total of one play apiece.
Bedard should stick to reporting, his analysis is God awful.

 

[aluminum seats]

Seems to me that Bedard is falling into the trap of overstating his points based on the specific game he's reviewing.

Example: Hernandez is coming back from an injury and has a bad game--suddenly he's "fading fast." More likely, he's simply showing the lingering effects of the injury and will hopefully/likely improve. Similarly, the Brady/Lloyd connection appears to be strengthening overall, but he devotes a lot of space to fretting over it. Like an improving stock, there will be flucuations, but the trend line there is strong.

Fans are always criticized for swinging too wildly back and forth after a win or a loss. I'd expect the Globe Pats' writer to be a little better than that.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Within one week, San Fran beat down the Patriots in Foxborough, then were decisively blown out by Seattle. Things change for football teams from week to week. When it comes to the Texans, they'd be facing a much more banged up interior OL than they did a few weeks ago. Also, there would most certainly be adjustments. I can guarantee you that Phillips will not go with mostly press man coverage on the outside against Brady after seeing what happened the first time around. That would free up Watt to wreak havoc against a banged up Connolly and overwhelmed Wendell.

As for the differences in coaching between Phillips and Ryan, you're more than welcome to explain the differences in each scheme to me. Please do so in stark detail.

Yeah........hmmm.........

It's obvious that when administering a "beatdown", your defense gives up:

32 first downs
34 points
530+ yards of offense
92 plays


That's not a "beatdown" you are giving....you're just constantly hitting yourself on the head.

It takes a village and then some.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah........hmmm.........

It's obvious that when administering a "beatdown", your defense gives up:

32 first downs
34 points
530+ yards of offense
92 plays


That's not a "beatdown" you are giving....you're just constantly hitting yourself on the head.

It takes a village and then some.

That game was a physical beatdown until the Pats almost exclusively put the ball in Brady's hands. That's when the plays, yards, and points happened and almost all of them happened in the second half. In the first half, the Pats were beaten. Further, the Niners were still good enough to win the game. Against Seattle, they looked completely inept in the same weather conditions. Again, things change in this league week to week.

Still waiting on the tudoring between the differences of a Rex Ryan defense and a Wade Phillips defense, by the way.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Seems to me that Bedard is falling into the trap of overstating his points based on the specific game he's reviewing.

Example: Hernandez is coming back from an injury and has a bad game--suddenly he's "fading fast." More likely, he's simply showing the lingering effects of the injury and will hopefully/likely improve. Similarly, the Brady/Lloyd connection appears to be strengthening overall, but he devotes a lot of space to fretting over it. Like an improving stock, there will be flucuations, but the trend line there is strong.

Fans are always criticized for swinging too wildly back and forth after a win or a loss. I'd expect the Globe Pats' writer to be a little better than that.

Well said.
We've seen TFB have stinker games each year so why aren't players like AH allowed the same, especially post injury?

One play, one series, one game does not a trend make.

It's rational to have concern and focus interest on AH's performance going fwd but making a concerted judgement is premature. But then we don't have to write a column attracting readers.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Actually I think Bedard is hedging his bets based on his dismissive don't worry be happy outlook on the season.

And the fading fast comment on Hernandez has less to do with his injury getting worse. It may be becoming increasingly painful but that is what it is, it's an injury you can play through because its likely aside from pain to get no worse. He's headed for the procedure and boot brigade once the season ends because they didn't rest it nearly enough or they misdiagnosed just how minor the high ankle portion of the injury was. It's that the effect of trying to play through it that is increasingly having an effect. Forget the stats, too, as they will come and go depending on what the defense decides to do. Watch his play. Alligator arms, missed blocks or route adjustments, penalties. Mental mistakes are adding to his anticipated physical limitations. That's the part that's not getting better, it's getting worse. It sucks to have to play hurt, but in the NFL this time of year it is what it is. Some guys can wrap their heads around that, others really struggle to.

 

[Deus Irae]

It is amusing that we constantly hear the Patriots don't pay for past performance; we're told their philosophy is to pay for expected future production.

Yet in this thread, we read that Mankins "earned" his deal, because he "sacrificed his body".

Completely absurd.

The Pats should have projected that the 30-ish Mankins was out of gas, and acted accordingly, just as they should have projected that Welker had plenty left, instead of kneecapping him with an insulting offer.

Recently they've blown it on performance projection for big money talent over and over:

- Ocho (lol)
- Mankins
- Welker

Does Pioli need to return? Dimitroff? What is the answer?

1.) Mankins earned his deal by being the best OG in the NFL

2.) Mankins popped his ACL and played through it [highlight]after[/highlight] he got his deal

Claiming he's out of gas when he's played one post-deal season on a torn ACL, and the other post-deal season with multiple injuries, makes no real sense.

 

[aluminum seats]

Alligator arms, missed blocks or route adjustments, penalties. Mental mistakes are adding to his anticipated physical limitations. That's the part that's not getting better, it's getting worse. It sucks to have to play hurt, but in the NFL this time of year it is what it is. Some guys can wrap their heads around that, others really struggle to.

I remember one play in SF where he short-armed a ball one play after getting hammered. Not ideal, but it happens. Did this happen a lot in the Miami game?

 

[captain stone]

It happened last week in Jax.