BB's toughest coaching call

[AzPatsFan]

I guess I never gave Mike McCarthy the credit he deserves in handling the Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers transition. Recall that that Brett Favre, certain future HOF and SB winning QB, led the Packers to a 13-3 season. Nonetheless McCarthy chose to sit him down and transition to Rodgers.

It didn't go easily. Favre was a raging bull about it, and Rodgers and the Pack fell off to a 6-10 first season under Rodgers.

But McCarthy had the intestinal fortitude to continue in spite of it all. In retrospect he was very right.

Bill Belichick now faces a similar quandry. The team went 12-4 but Brady had his worst statistical year in ages. Some of it can be attributed to the rookies and injuries, but the first signs are there.

1) TFB has lost accuracy in his deep throws.

2) TFB was sometimes inaccurate in his bread and butter short /midrange throws.

3) TFB was never a running QB, but he used to shuffle around and avoid the pass rush. Now, many times he just seems to secure the ball, and then simply gets buried by the sackers.

4) TFB was tackled 40 times this season and double what he used to do.


Does Bill Belichick handle this transition well, or even have the guts to do so when it becomes necessary, this next season or the one after that?

Recall that doing that to Kosar earned him the hatred of myriads of Brown's fans that haven't dissipated to this day, and contributed to getting him fired.

5) Will Kraft have the guts to handle the Fan and Media pressure too, to allow BB to do so?

 

[SunsOutGunsOut]

place gun to head .. (disclaimer : I am kidding, do not place a gun to your head OP)

 

[Ivan]

I guess I never gave Mike McCarthy the credit he deserves in handling the Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers transition. Recall that that Brett Favre, certain future HOF and SB winning QB, led the Packers to a 13-3 season. Nonetheless McCarthy chose to sit him down and transition to Rodgers.

It didn't go easily. Favre was a raging bull about it, and Rodgers and the Pack fell off to a 6-10 first season under Rodgers.

But McCarthy had the intestinal fortitude to continue in spite of it all. In retrospect he was very right.

Bill Belichick now faces a similar quandry. The team went 12-4 but Brady had his worst statistical year in ages. Some of it can be attributed to the rookies and injuries, but the first signs are there.

1) TFB has lost accuracy in his deep throws.

2) TFB was sometimes inaccurate in his bread and butter short /midrange throws.

3) TFB was never a running QB, but he used to shuffle around and avoid the pass rush. Now, many times he just seems to secure the ball, and then simply gets buried by the sackers.

4) TFB was tackled 40 times this season and double what he used to do.


Does Bill Belichick handle this transition well, or even have the guts to do so when it becomes necessary, this next season or the one after that?

Recall that doing that to Kosar earned him the hatred of myriads of Brown's fans that haven't dissipated to this day, and contributed to getting him fired.

5) Will Kraft have the guts to handle the Fan and Media pressure too, to allow BB to do so?

I have always had a lot of respect for you as a poster Az but you are so far off the mark on this that it is ridiculous. The only reason Brady was off this season was because he lost almost 90% of his receptions from the previous season and I guarantee next season will be substantially better from a statistical perspective. They need to trade Mallett and over the next year or two start to look for the player who will eventually replace him.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I have always had a lot of respect for you as a poster Az but you are so far off the mark on this that it is ridiculous. The only reason Brady was off this season was because he lost almost 90% of his receptions from the previous season and I guarantee next season will be substantially better from a statistical perspective. They need to trade Mallett and over the next year or two start to look for the player who will eventually replace him.

I think we've outed Az as being Mallet's brother or Dad.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some differences:

1. Green Bay wasn't in the position of having to eat a huge amount of money when Favre left. The Pats would take a cap hit of -$18.5M this year and -$5M next year for cutting or trading Brady.

2. Green Bay had Aaron Rodgers in the wings. No one knows how good Ryan Mallett is, but even in the unlikely situation that the Pats think he's another Rodgers, the cap hit for moving on from Brady this year or next would be enormous.

3. Brady right now >>> Favre circa 2008.

 

[patsinthesnow]

In the history of the NFL, two QBs have played at an elite level past age 38: Warren Moon at 39 in 1995, and Brett Favre at 40 at 2009. IMO, Brady has two more years of elite level play.

Here's my guess at the future of QB for the pats.

-We draft a 1st-2nd round QB in 2015. He sits under Brady for a year. Brady would be 39 for the 2016 season. If Brady is still performing at a high level, we have two choices: Start him another year and let the kid sit behind Brady for a 2nd year, or trade him to a loaded NFC team. (His home 49ers?) Brady becomes tradeable in 2016 as we would gain caproom via cut/trade that year.

Mallett is not the successor.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's my guess at the future of QB for the pats.

-We draft a 1st-2nd round QB in 2015. He sits under Brady for a year. Brady would be 39 for the 2016 season. If Brady is still performing at a high level, we have two choices: Start him another year and let the kid sit behind Brady for a 2nd year, or trade him to a loaded NFC team. (His home 49ers?) Brady becomes tradeable in 2016 as we would gain caproom via cut/trade that year.

The 2015 draft will probably have Marcus Mariota (projected top 5), Jameis Winston (projected top 5), Christian Hackenberger, Kevin Hogan, Devin Gardner and Bryce Petty. The last time 6 QBs went in the 1st round that I can recall was 1983. The odds are that the Pats will be in position to draft a future franchise QB next year, and groom him for 1-3 years behind Brady.

 

[kennyb]

Brady was bad in the championship game. His deep ball is atrocious. Just floats it up there. Huge overthrows that other QBs don't make. Other good qbs. I think he's gotten worse lately too. Maybe it was the injury. There's always next year. But he'll be here for at least next year.

 

[CelticPatriot]

Ryan Mallett isn't Aaron Rodgers.

I don't like the trade talk either (and I doubt Brady would either). Seeing him playing for any other team would be extremely weird.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Why does everyone think if BB decides to transition that they would cut TFB? It won't happen. BB detests not having depth anywhere but certainly at QB.

Montana shot himself out of the town and so did Favre. But they didn't do that while under contract, and were both there doing the transition.

I think BB, Kraft and TFB discussed this when Brady signed his last contract.

What is it but a future cut in salary, so serving as a transition/reserve QB is CAP feasible? Brady can choose to retire as a Patriot; or it makes his trade entirely feasible. Pay-me-a-ton couldn't do that with the Colts.

 

[Ivan]

Brady is going to be Ryan Mallett's back-up?



I realize that Brady6 is mentally ill but i didn't thin k it was contagious.

 

[supafly]

Why does everyone think if BB decides to transition that they would cut TFB? It won't happen. BB detests not having depth anywhere but certainly at QB.

Montana shot himself out of the town and so did Favre. But they didn't do that while under contract, and were both there doing the transition.

I think BB, Kraft and TFB discussed this when Brady signed his last contract.

What is it but a future cut in salary, so serving as a transition/reserve QB is CAP feasible? Brady can choose to retire as a Patriot; or it makes his trade entirely feasible. Pay-me-a-ton couldn't do that with the Colts.

While Brady made a move aimed at giving the team some cap relief, he also basically guaranteed himself that he wouldn't be cut and could retire a Patriot. His extension was a "win-win" for both sides, not just for the NEP. No other QB has signed a new blockbuster deal (even despite all of these "120 million dollar deals" lately) that guarantees as much money as Brady's does. Even Drew Brees' latest deal last year is right around the same guaranteed money, if that tells you anything!!! Both are right around 55 million guaranteed.

Bill Belichick has gone on record many times in regards to the salary cap and having a franchise QB, and his thoughts are that you cannot pay more than "12-15%" of that year's salary cap on that franchise QB. Even though Brady signed a team friendly deal considering his talent level, he is still costing us 14/15 million dollars vs the cap, which is right in the range of where Belichick stated way back in the mid-2000s that it HAS to be. Once you'd add in Mallett's cap hit also, that number would simply be too much.

Now, one could argue that Belichick believes that Ryan Mallett is the potential successor to Brady, and that may be true--although likely doubtful. The problem with this thinking is that even if Mallett were resigned next season, his "new" pact from 2015 on would still likely expire prior to Brady retiring, so we'd be right back in the same situation....only this time we'd be forced to have to pay excessive amounts that were not feasible at the position of QB in regards to the cap, along with then having a future QB who'd already be in his 30's. It just doesn't make sense.

 

[Ivan]

I am really looking forward to next season's Mallett vs Osweiler match-up, it should be epic.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Ryan Mallett isn't Aaron Rodgers.

I don't like the trade talk either (and I doubt Brady would either). Seeing him playing for any other team would be extremely weird.

I agree it would be weird, but its happened in every sport. Brady won't want to be a backup obviously.

If the 49ers or some team offered two 1sts or 1st + 2nd for a 39 year old Brady, while we had a kid in the wings, you wouldn't do it?

 

[Ivan]

WTF is going on with this board, first a 2 million post debate about something that has zero chance of happening (release Amendola)*granted 1.9 million were by the same poster, and now a Mallett is going to replace Brady real soon thread.

What's next, Bob Kraft is going to replace Bill Belichick with his girlfriend?

 

[Elijah T.]

This thread is about two years too early.

You give Manning the same receiving core this year he's probably retired at the end of the season.

 

[patsinthesnow]

WTF is going on with this board, first a 2 million post debate about something that has zero chance of happening (release Amendola)*granted 1.9 million were by the same poster, and now a Mallett is going to replace Brady real soon thread.

What's next, Bob Kraft is going to replace Bill Belichick with his girlfriend?

Mallett's (hopefully) gone this offseason with compensation or at worst walks in free agency next year. Brady's locked in at QB for the next two years, so looks like the Mallett fan club is out of luck.

 

[fnordcircle]

Problem: Only the third highest scoring offense in the league.

Solution: Time to replace our HoF QB.

I hate our fanbase.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

WTF is going on with this board, first a 2 million post debate about something that has zero chance of happening (release Amendola)*granted 1.9 million were by the same poster, and now a Mallett is going to replace Brady real soon thread.

What's next, Bob Kraft is going to replace Bill Belichick with his girlfriend?

I really REALLY hate the offseason

 

[IcyPatriot]

I think some Patriots fan forget that Brady has played 15-16 years worth of games due to all the playoff games minus the season he missed ... somewhere around 20 playoff games I think. He has the 9th most pass attempts ever also ... that has to factor in somehow however Manning has 2,000 more and is still slinging it - not as hard as Brady but throwing nevertheless. So is his playing body 37 -38 or 39?

In any case he has more wear and tear on him than probably any QB of comparable age. He seems like he still has it ... but how do we really know if he goes down gradual or quickly due to the wear and tear. I think the Patriots make one more run and then who knows.