At the Half: Red Sox chances of making the playoffs

[SHOWTIME15]

With all the injuries, do you guys think the sox have a chance at a playoff spot? Here are the list of key guys injured as of 7/17/10:

-pedroia

-beckett

-buchholz

-v. martinez

-varitek

-del carmen

-ellsbury

-others

Sox stand 6.5 games back of the yankees as of today. I can't believe francona last night inserted 2 AAA pitchers against a powerful texas lineup. Thoughts? I think the sox can make a playoff push because i don't see TB making it - they need more pitching and hitting.

 

[Boston Boxer]

i dont think we are making it this year. Pitching has been horrible. The outfield needs a total make over. I like Hermida as the 4th OF, put Cameron is done, Drew is too injured all the time, and i really dont like Ellsbury. I think he has great speed, but his D is average and he stinks with the bat IMO.

I would make a serious run at Carl Crawford next year...it will be a bidding war, but he is a talent we need. I would also explore what prospects would be needed to trade for Carlos Gonzales from Colorado. He is a stud and i would be willing to give up a bunch of AA/AAA for him (i would not include Casey Kelly, but everyone else is fair game)

 

[ausbacker]

It's always the same guys that fail us time and time again. Hermida is really the only outfielder I wouldn't mind being kept around.

 

[Kontradiction]

Eh, they're dropping like a rock once again but I'm sticking with my homer prediction until the end of the season. I think the Sox have one more hot streak in them (once they get healthy) and the Rays have one more cold streak in them. Hopefully I'm right, though it doesn't look like it right now.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Although I was among the few who took the view of "it's a long season - don't write any team off in May" when they got of to such a lousy start and this looked to be a lost season, I'm amazed that they were able to twice come back to within 1 game of the Yankees.

Logic says that this ongoing injury marred season can't be expected to end well - but it wouldn't be the first time they surprised me this season alone

So logic says that "no" this amount of injuries just can't be overcome and if they do sneak into the playoffs they won't go far - but this has been a very streaky and surprising team - they get healthy and hot at the right time and anything is possible

(Heck in 2004 they were about 10 games in back of the Yankees in August and still won the World Series!)

 

[SHOWTIME15]

(Heck in 2004 they were about 10 games in back of the Yankees in August and still won the World Series!)

the problem is that this Sox team does not have enough character guys. Guys like Millar, Muellar and Roberts may not have been any where near the top at their respective positions but they had heart (like pedroia). theo needs to build a team, not sign a bunch of free agents and/or trade for stars. The rays have a great team but very few star players and they are 3 games ahead of the sox.

 

[Run DMC]

This team does not stack at all against the powerhouse Stinkees. With the exception of Youk, Pedey, and Lester, and the pleasantly surprising Beltre and Clay B, you can 86 the rest of these guys. I would drop papi and have vmart be my DH next year. This team desperately needs a great catcher and some power hitting from the OF.

 

[Real World]

i dont think we are making it this year. Pitching has been horrible. The outfield needs a total make over. I like Hermida as the 4th OF, put Cameron is done, Drew is too injured all the time, and i really dont like Ellsbury. I think he has great speed, but his D is average and he stinks with the bat IMO.

I would make a serious run at Carl Crawford next year...it will be a bidding war, but he is a talent we need. I would also explore what prospects would be needed to trade for Carlos Gonzales from Colorado. He is a stud and i would be willing to give up a bunch of AA/AAA for him (i would not include Casey Kelly, but everyone else is fair game)

I think the Sox will go after Jason Werth this offseason, before Crawford. They have a Crawford type in Ellsbury, at a fraction of the cost. Werth would be a beast in Fenway.

 

[bigcountry75]

I think the Sox will go after Jason Werth this offseason, before Crawford. They have a Crawford type in Ellsbury, at a fraction of the cost. Werth would be a beast in Fenway.

I would love to see werth but I have to slightly disagree with you on the crawford/ellsbury statement.....Crawford is a better all around player....He hits for more power, is a more polished outfielder and is just a great player.....

If we could get werth and crawford and have from LF to RF Crawford/Ellsbury/Werth with hermida and Bill Hall as serviceable backups....

 

[Real World]

I would love to see werth but I have to slightly disagree with you on the crawford/ellsbury statement.....Crawford is a better all around player....He hits for more power, is a more polished outfielder and is just a great player.....

If we could get werth and crawford and have from LF to RF Crawford/Ellsbury/Werth with hermida and Bill Hall as serviceable backups....

I didn't say Ellsbury was better than, or is Carl Crawford. I simply said that Ellsbury is a Crawford type player. Hits somewhere near .300 or so, doesn't have the greatest OBP, has a little pop, and steals a ton of bases. They are similarly skilled players. Why pay Crawford $12-15 million per over 5 or 6 years, when you already have a similar type player under control for 3 more years, at a fraction of that. In the PEDless era, power has once again become the hardest offensive resource to both develop, and find. Werth is the more valuable commodity, especially for a Redsox team that could use a middle of the order bat, moving forward. A lot of Yankee fans have discussed Crawford, and to me, having Brett Gardner makes going after Crawford unnecessary. Crawford's a terrific player, but he's a speed guy, and his next deal will take him into his 30's, where that skill can rapidly decline. Plus, power is much more important than speed these days.

If you look at Ellsbury and Crawford statistially, you'll see how comparable they are. If you account for some gradual improvement in the still developing Ellsbury, you could argue that they are identical players. What surprised me about Crawford when we were debating him in a Yankees forum, was his extremely low OBP. It's .338 for his career. That's awful for a base stealer.

Compare their 162 game averages. Very close. Crawford is a terrific defensive outfielder, which Ellsbury, some say, is not. I personally think Ellsbury is above average in the OF. UZR be damned.

Carl Crawford Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Jacoby Ellsbury Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

[bigcountry75]

I didn't say Ellsbury was better than, or is Carl Crawford. I simply said that Ellsbury is a Crawford type player. Hits somewhere near .300 or so, doesn't have the greatest OBP, has a little pop, and steals a ton of bases. They are similarly skilled players. Why pay Crawford $12-15 million per over 5 or 6 years, when you already have a similar type player under control for 3 more years, at a fraction of that. In the PEDless era, power has once again become the hardest offensive resource to both develop, and find. Werth is the more valuable commodity, especially for a Redsox team that could use a middle of the order bat, moving forward. A lot of Yankee fans have discussed Crawford, and to me, having Brett Gardner makes going after Crawford unnecessary. Crawford's a terrific player, but he's a speed guy, and his next deal will take him into his 30's, where that skill can rapidly decline. Plus, power is much more important than speed these days.

If you look at Ellsbury and Crawford statistially, you'll see how comparable they are. If you account for some gradual improvement in the still developing Ellsbury, you could argue that they are identical players. What surprised me about Crawford when we were debating him in a Yankees forum, was his extremely low OBP. It's .338 for his career. That's awful for a base stealer.

Compare their 162 game averages. Very close. Crawford is a terrific defensive outfielder, which Ellsbury, some say, is not. I personally think Ellsbury is above average in the OF. UZR be damned.

Carl Crawford Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Jacoby Ellsbury Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Ok fine but what I am saying is why can't we have both???? Crawford in left, ellsbury in center and werth in right....Talk about one hell of an OF....Drew's contract is up after next season so you keep his as a viable replacement next season with someone like Hermida.....Then Drew's contract will take a good bit of money off the books with the likes of Lowell and varitek probably gone next season....I can see something like this happening and them not having to spend a ton more then they have coming off the books....Someone brought up Carlos Gonzalez but I believe that will be like pulling teeth to get him from Colorado....He is one hell of a player though....

 

[Real World]

Ok fine but what I am saying is why can't we have both???? Crawford in left, ellsbury in center and werth in right....Talk about one hell of an OF....Drew's contract is up after next season so you keep his as a viable replacement next season with someone like Hermida.....Then Drew's contract will take a good bit of money off the books with the likes of Lowell and varitek probably gone next season....I can see something like this happening and them not having to spend a ton more then they have coming off the books....Someone brought up Carlos Gonzalez but I believe that will be like pulling teeth to get him from Colorado....He is one hell of a player though....

Technically they could sign both players, but I find that highly unlikely. Doing so would mean finding a taker for both Drew, and Cameron. Both are on the books for 2011 at a combined $22-23 million. They could trade Ellsbury, and keep one of the other two, but again, why move Ellsbury to sign Crawford, when they'll provide similar styles and production, but at completely different costs. One things for sure, it will be interesting to see what the Sox do with their OF situation this offseason. They'll have Cameron and Drew in their final years, as well as a decision to make with Ellsbury. Beltre will certainly opt out, and there are some big bats 1B's scheduled to be FA's after 2011, so that might play into what they do as well. They're already at $170 million, and not too much is coming off the books this year. Next year a good chunk does though. So 2011 could be a "transition" type year, where they let the money come off the books, which would set them up with some real financial, and positional flexibility for the 2011 offseason. Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and one Albert Pujols will be free agents after the 2011 season. Nice trio of bats right there.

 

[Boston Boxer]

I didn't say Ellsbury was better than, or is Carl Crawford. I simply said that Ellsbury is a Crawford type player. Hits somewhere near .300 or so, doesn't have the greatest OBP, has a little pop, and steals a ton of bases. They are similarly skilled players. Why pay Crawford $12-15 million per over 5 or 6 years, when you already have a similar type player under control for 3 more years, at a fraction of that. In the PEDless era, power has once again become the hardest offensive resource to both develop, and find. Werth is the more valuable commodity, especially for a Redsox team that could use a middle of the order bat, moving forward. A lot of Yankee fans have discussed Crawford, and to me, having Brett Gardner makes going after Crawford unnecessary. Crawford's a terrific player, but he's a speed guy, and his next deal will take him into his 30's, where that skill can rapidly decline. Plus, power is much more important than speed these days.

If you look at Ellsbury and Crawford statistially, you'll see how comparable they are. If you account for some gradual improvement in the still developing Ellsbury, you could argue that they are identical players. What surprised me about Crawford when we were debating him in a Yankees forum, was his extremely low OBP. It's .338 for his career. That's awful for a base stealer.

Compare their 162 game averages. Very close. Crawford is a terrific defensive outfielder, which Ellsbury, some say, is not. I personally think Ellsbury is above average in the OF. UZR be damned.

Carl Crawford Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Jacoby Ellsbury Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

good call Real...i did not realize they had very similar stats. Although Ellsbury does not have a big sample size. Also, does it really seem that Ellsbury hit .300? It seems to me that he is a .250 hitter. With that being said, i still beleive we need to relook at the OF as a priority.

Also, i think Feilder will play 1st for us and Youk will move to 3b in 2011...just a hunch

 

[Real World]

good call Real...i did not realize they had very similar stats. Although Ellsbury does not have a big sample size. Also, does it really seem that Ellsbury hit .300? It seems to me that he is a .250 hitter. With that being said, i still beleive we need to relook at the OF as a priority.

Also, i think Feilder will play 1st for us and Youk will move to 3b in 2011...just a hunch

I think it's a virtual lock that the Sox will sign, or trade for, one of the big 3 (first baseman) by the time the 2012 season starts. I think Fielder is option 3 in that group (Pujols 1, Gonzalez 2), cuz his defense is suspect. That aside, his power is impressive. One possibility that might throw a monkey wrench into that scenario, is Adam Dunn. No one mentions him as a Sox option, but defense aside, he's a home run machine. Virtually 40 per guaranteed. If you're going to pay Fielder, you might be better served by signing Dunn for half the cost. Fielder is going to look for Text type money. Dunn might not get half that.

 

[bigcountry75]

I think it's a virtual lock that the Sox will sign, or trade for, one of the big 3 (first baseman) by the time the 2012 season starts. I think Fielder is option 3 in that group (Pujols 1, Gonzalez 2), cuz his defense is suspect. That aside, his power is impressive. One possibility that might throw a monkey wrench into that scenario, is Adam Dunn. No one mentions him as a Sox option, but defense aside, he's a home run machine. Virtually 40 per guaranteed. If you're going to pay Fielder, you might be better served by signing Dunn for half the cost. Fielder is going to look for Text type money. Dunn might not get half that.

Good points....I wasn't thinking about beltre leaving as I think he is having a great season now that he has gotten comfortable here....As much as I have taken a liking to him we would be better off moving Youk to 3rd and grabbing A-Gonz....I just like his all around game better than Fielder's and I say this with confidence that I doubt Pujols will hit the open market....

The OF situation I can see your points....Normally I would say I would take crawford over ellsbury but given the age and crawford being pushed into his 30's with the next contract I am not so sure.....We will need to get rid of either Drew or cameron next season and I could see us bringing in Werth to play RF.....We could even move Drew to LF if (Drew stays) with ellsbury in CF or just have ellsbury in LF with Cameron in CF if (cameron stays).....I do agree that next offseason they will hit on some big FA's as after 2011 a bunch of money will come off the books.....The thing that sucks is we are talking about addressing the OF issues and in the next season or 2 we will need to address pitching as well......We will have Lester, Bucholz and Lackey for a while.....Beckett is injury prone, Wakefield looks done and Dice-k has been a disappointment for 100mil.....(BTW when does all his money come off the books?).....The next 2 offseasons will probably see a ton of movement by the sox more so than usual as they are getting older and need some more young talent.....I guess we will see

 

[ausbacker]

Can anyone wait to see the back of minor leaguers Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, Eric Patterson, Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, Dusty Brown and Kevin Cash?

I'm amazed we've won as much as we have with these spents spending regular time in the Sox injury riddled side.

 

[Disco Volante]

Sox would be either leading/within 2 games of 1st place in every other division.

Sigh.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Sox 7 games back now. this could get ugly. we assumed that bucholz and beckett would just be plugged in and win games, not so much for buchholz tonight.

gotta respect Tampa. they have a 70 million dollar payroll and they are only 2.5 games back of a 200 million dollar team. i would not mind one bit if the rays won the WS - it's good for baseball to see a low budget team topple the yanks.

 

[ausbacker]

Sox 7 games back now. this could get ugly. we assumed that bucholz and beckett would just be plugged in and win games, not so much for buchholz tonight.

gotta respect Tampa. they have a 70 million dollar payroll and they are only 2.5 games back of a 200 million dollar team. i would not mind one bit if the rays won the WS - it's good for baseball to see a low budget team topple the yanks.

The pitching matters for naught with the batting lineup we've been fielding.. and catchers who can't call games.

It makes you appreciate how good this side could be when the full roster compliment returns. Hopefully a lot of damage isn't done before then.

 

[bigcountry75]

Just throwing this out there as I don't believe the Sox are done but....Say we slip to 15 games out before we get everyone back healthy.....Do we decide to be sellers and trade players like Lowell, Beltre, drew....Just thinking of some veteran players that teams would want.....Try to get some good minor leaguers to help strengthen our farm system.....we have almost always been buyers and deplete our minor leagues to get veterans.....It might not be a bad idea to try and replace them given the chance.....Now with that being said hopefully we don't get to that point and can tread water until we get our regulars back.....