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At least Accuscore doesn't buy the hype

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Cramden, Feb 2, 2012.

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  1. Cramden

    Cramden On the Game Day Roster

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  2. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    No Jersey Selected

    Wonder if Hoge will pick the Steelers.
     
  3. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Not for nothing......... Accuscore is 16-2 when predicting Patriot game outcomes this year.

    It essentially picked the Patriots to win every game....... except 1. Week 8 vs. the Steelers (and it was right). The only games it got wrong were the Giants and Bills losses, and I'm quite sure the computer didn't figure that we'd have 7 turnovers in those game either (including half -6- of Brady's 12 Int. total for the year).

    By the way......... It also the MOST ACCURATE predictor of games wins for the regular season at. 174-82 (68%). It's only slightly less accurate in the postseason (6-4 - 60%)....... Of course when is correctly picks this weekends game ;) . It's postseason average with move to 64%. Which makes it an extremely reliable judge of how a game is gonna go in both the regular season and the postseason.

    Seems to me that the people with actually money at stake (Vegas) seems to give more weight to something like a this, rather then mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging mediots.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2012
  4. Cramden

    Cramden On the Game Day Roster

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    Nice 16-2 stat with the Accuscore picks.

    FYI Hoge picks the Giants, as do Allen, Jaws, Mortensen and Wickersham. Shefter and Schlereth side with the Pats. Nothing from Golic yet.
     
  5. Patriots2001

    Patriots2001 On the Game Day Roster

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  6. SoonerPatriot

    SoonerPatriot In the Starting Line-Up

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    Golic is a hater. My guess is he takes the Giants.
     
  7. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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  8. RelocatedPatFan

    RelocatedPatFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    He played for the Eagles, so he may hate the Giants much more. I think they usually make picks on Friday for the show.
     
  9. CityOfChampions

    CityOfChampions Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Accuscore > Analysts.
     
  10. EJ Blitz

    EJ Blitz Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Accuscore accuscorin' like a boss.
     
  11. Gronkandez

    Gronkandez 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Correct me if I'm wrong but I assume Accuscore just picks the favored team every time.
     
  12. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    No, they successfully picked the Steelers over us this year.

    We were favorites by about 2-3 pts.

    In theory, that is probably a lot more true than false, but they don't 'always' pick the fave.
     
  13. PatsGirl2011

    PatsGirl2011 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Mike and Mike are both closet Pats haters. No doubt about it. I forgot who the Pats played a couple of years ago, prob the colts, but Golic looked pissed that the Pats won..lol
     
  14. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

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    Accuscore pics the statistical favorite based on their input of stats but it doesn't take into consideration areas such as the chances of a player due to an injury and the effect of that player on a team. It predicts simply based on history up until that point. There's no way it can predict the effect of certain developing changes throughout the week leading up to the game. It would be way off the mark for example if your starting QB got hurt. They only see it as a marginal drop in difference based on stats, but in reality, it has a much bigger effect due to effect on all the things not measured by numbers.

    Don't think it's that advanced. Yard per point's been more accurate than accuscore with a 7-3 playoff record based on regular season stats. ESPN and their analysts appear do a great job of re-inventing the wheel to come out with something worse than what we already had.

    Here's one simple method of using yards per point.


    Patriots Offense: 13.2 yards per point against an average defense
    Giants Offense: 15.5 yards per point against an average defense.

    NE's offense: 127% more yards compared to an average offense(335.8 yards)
    Giants offense: 115% more yards compared to an average offense

    Patriots defense: 401.5 yards per game against an average offense.
    Giants defense: 367.7 yards per game against an average offense.

    Expected total yards gained for each offense:
    Giants: 461.7
    Patriots: 467.0

    Expected points:
    Patriots 467/13.2 = 35.4 = 35 points
    Giants: 461.7/15.5 = 29.8 = 30 points

    Final score at an even turnover margin: Patriots 35 - Giants 30

    Final score will differ, but what's important is that yards per point predicts a Patriot win and the fact that it should cover the 3 point spread at an even turnover margin.

    Now if anyone can tell me how to predict turnovers, it would be great:D



    Here's one very complicated and half ass attempt at predicting the unpredictable(not recommended):

    Forced Fumble Recoveries:
    Giants recovered 0.84 "forced" fumbles per game(5 of their 16 came in the playoffs though)
    Patriots recovered 0.67 forced fumbles per game(1 in the playoffs)

    Interceptions:
    Tom Brady: 681 passing attempts & 15 interceptions = 1 int per 45.4 attempts
    Eli Manning: 712 passing attempts & 17 interceptions = 1 int per 41.9 attempts

    Passing offense:
    Patriots: 315.8 or 138% against an average pass defense(228.1ypg)
    Giants: 294.5 or 129 % against an average pass defense.

    Expected offensive passing yards:
    Patriots: 246.5 yards(Giants D) * 138% = 340.2 yards
    Giants: 282.9 yards(Pats D) * 129% = 364.9 yards

    Ok this is the part I seriously do not condone doing for predicting but....

    Expected Attempts needed:
    Patriots: 340.2/ 8.3ypa = 41 passing attempts
    Giants: 364.9/ 7.9ypa = 46.2 passing attempts(Poor Eli, better get that arm ready)

    Expected Interceptions:
    Brady: 41 attempts/ 45.4 = 0.90 interceptions
    Eli: 46.2/ 41.9 = 1.1 interceptions

    Expected Turnovers:
    Patriots .9 ints + .84(Giants FFR) = 1.74 turnovers.
    Eli: 1.1 ints + .67 (Pats FFR) = 1.77 turnovers

    Predicted turnover margin:
    Patriots + 0.03, so even with microscopical slight edge to the Pats.

    *Ok but in a perfect world, since Eli's expected to need to pass 46 times to get the expected 364 passing yards against NE he should throw an interception since he throws 1 every 42 pass attempts. And Tom Brady shouldn't throw one. Of course we know they don't all come at en exact rate of 1 every 46 times or 1 every 42, but when also taking into consideration that the Giants "forced" fumble recoveries are clearly inflated in the playoffs because we all saw how they happened, the Pats should still come out +1 in turnovers when it's all said and done.

    So with that extra bit of "adjusted" real life logic, a + 1 turnover margin would mean roughly a 3.5 points +/- swing for each team.

    Adjusted scores:
    *Expected: Patriots +1
    Patriots 35.4 + 3.5 = 38.9 = 39 points
    Giants 29.8 -3.5 = 26.4 = 26 points

    *Unexpected: Giants +1
    Patriots 35.4 -3.5 = 31.9 = 32 points
    Giants 29.8+ 3.5 = 33.2 = 33 points
    :mad:



    Final score predictions:
    Even turnover margin: Patriots 35 - Giants 30
    *Expected turnover margin: Patriots +1
    Patriots 39 - Giants 26


    Either way, they should cover the 3 point spread and this doesn't predict a 3 point game unless they lose the turnover battle. With a +1 they'll blow it out of the water. If Pats lose the turnover margin, Giants could win by 1 point(this would SUCK!), but thankfully, this is not expected. It's also an indication that Patriots could still win despite a - turnover margin, which wouldn't be the first time. It should also be noted that their 2 turnovers against the Ravens only cost the Pats 3 points. Brady knows where to throw them. So they're not really going to get hurt by 3.5 points per turnover(which is average), though they would still gain 3.5 points from one, which would still give the edge to the Pats even if the unexpected occurs.

    So basically, Giants can't win unless they win the turnover battle and a +1 turnover margin might still not be enough. Since both teams are expected to have at least 1-2 turnovers, that means the Patriots would need to turnover the ball 3-4 times in order for the Giants to have a chance at coming out +2 and "win the game"..... statistically. Interestingly, isn't this exactly what happened in the first game? So only a repeat of the turnover mess will cost the Pats a Super Bowl.

    PS: And none of this counts if the same teams that have played this season don't show up playing the same way on Sunday...or if Gronk's out. Fun. Don't blame me if you lose your money:D
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2012
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