As the season winds down...

[patsfaninpa]

Okay, but which draft prospect has the label "instant pass rush, just add water?"

The simple truth is any rookie drafted to play OLB will most likely need a 2-4 year transition period. The stats below suggest you will need to wait at least a year - regardless of college production.

2008 1st round DE/OLB
Chris Long 4 sacks (14 his last year in college)
Vernon Gholston 0 (14 his last year in college)
Derrick Harvey 1.5 (8.5 his last year in college)
Phillip Merling 1 (7 his last year in college)
Lawrence Jackson 2 (10.5 his last year in college)

2007 1st round DE/OLB
Gaines Adams 5.5 (12.5 his last year in college)
Jamaal Anderson 2 (13.5 his last year in college)
Adam Carriker 0 (7 his last year in college)
Jarvis Moss 2.5 (7.5 his last year in college)
Anthony Spencer 1 (10.5 his last year in college)
Lawrence Timmons 4 (5 his last year in college)

The only DE/OLB in the past two drafts to be an impact pass rusher is 2007 2nd round pick Lamar Woodley with 11.5 sacks this season - he was good for 4 sacks as a rookie.

Pats rookies
Crable (7.5 his last year in college)
Robertson (6.5 his last year in college)
Redd (6.5 his last year in college)
Guyton (5 his last year in college)
Craig (3 his last year in college)
Mayo (1.5 his last year in college)
Ruud (0 his last year in college)

BB has some kids here who with healthy veterans around them may be able to step up in another year or two and have an impact (Guyton has already shown some ability as a blitzer from ILB), for 2009, I suggest we window shop the UFAs and hope to get lucky.

You're making my point. As Glenn Ordway would say.


We need a young olb because Vrabel is going to be gone after
next year. We won't be able to count on a rookie to replace him. We need to draft
someone this year to groom to replace him.

 

[DaBruinz]

You're making my point. As Glenn Ordway would say.


We need a young olb because Vrabel is going to be gone after
next year. We won't be able to count on a rookie to replace him. We need to draft
someone this year to groom to replace him.

They drafted Crable to replace Vrabel. They also have Vince Redd.

 

[BradyManny]

They drafted Crable to replace Vrabel. They also have Vince Redd.

While I agree, I also think that OLB - like many positions - is one where if they saw a guy who slipped or who they didn't expect to be where they were picking, they might pull the trigger. Crable has a lot of upside, but if there is value in grabbing a guy with an even higher upside at the position, they'll do it. Same probably goes for a few positions on the squad right now.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You're making my point. As Glenn Ordway would say.


We need a young olb because Vrabel is going to be gone after
next year. We won't be able to count on a rookie to replace him. We need to draft
someone this year to groom to replace him.

As Db noted, BB has been stockpiling young DE/OLB types this season: Crable, Redd, Robertson, and Craig.
- Crable, Redd, and Robertson have all played some OLB and some DE while in college.
- Guyton needs some technique and strength work to play more 3-4 OLB, but he seems to have the talent.
- Ruud has the height to pay OLB, but needs to add at least 15 lbs - his profile at NFL Draft Scout reads like he was the draft pick intended to develop as the coverage ILB that Guyton has become, so who knows.
- Woods played well in relief of Adalius Thomas and is entering his RFA season, based on what they've done in the past there's a good chance the Pats sign him to a multiple year extension instead of just tendering him - Pees claims Woods' greatest strength is his pass rush, so who knows how he'll develop going forward?

I have no objection to the Pats drafting another OLB prospect - my own mock included Cincinnati's Connor Barwin who could be developed as an OLB while playing Special Teams and #3 TE - but when factoring in Best Value for a Pats draft pick, the apparent roster depth for OLB prospects has to weigh against drafting another OLB prospect, especially if there are players with equivalent scores.

 

[dryheat44]

As long as people are dreaming, let's do a little mocking: The Pats currently have #18, #39, #49, & #86 to work with in 2009.

Using Scout.com's Top 100 Scout.com: 2009 NFL Draft Rankings let's see whom people would draft and why. Yes, this is only the Senior class, but it's too early to know which Juniors are truly coming out so have fun with it.

For those who might wish to trade, use the Draft Value chart at Draft Countdown: Draft Countdown - Trade Value Chart

.

While I'd normally play along, I don't see much practical value in mock-drafting from a senior-only pool. HOWEVER, if we were to use this projection: http://walterfootball.com/draft2009.php
I would go with:
18. Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
40. Chase Coffman TE Missouri
49. Jamon Meredith OT South Carolina
86. Nic Harris S Oklahoma
97(c). Vince Oghobaase DE Duke

 

[dryheat44]

Okay, but which draft prospect has the label "instant pass rush, just add water?"
2008 1st round DE/OLB
Chris Long 4 sacks (14 his last year in college)
Vernon Gholston 0 (14 his last year in college)
Derrick Harvey 1.5 (8.5 his last year in college)
Phillip Merling 1 (7 his last year in college)
Lawrence Jackson 2 (10.5 his last year in college)

.

You're doing a disservice to Cliff Avril and Trevor Scott by only including 1st rounders. They also have four each in limited playing time.

 

[BradyManny]

You're doing a disservice to Cliff Avril and Trevor Scott by only including 1st rounders. They also have four each in limited playing time.

Damn, Avril has a sack in each of the last 3 games. Not too shabby. I was interested in any of the 3 of Avril, Groves, Crable (admittedly Crable was lower on my own preference list). Groves, to me, was by far the most exciting of the 3 - he has 1.5 sacks at this point, 10 tackles, and 1 FF. I trust the Pats made the right decision for their system in Crable, and time will likely show that.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You're doing a disservice to Cliff Avril and Trevor Scott by only including 1st rounders. They also have four each in limited playing time.

That's nice for them - considering which teams wound up drafting them - but Avril in the 3rd round and Scott in the 6th round aren't necessarily the players our OLB hungry fellows are looking to draft. They are demanding a stud edge rusher be the Pats #1 draft priority, which is why I looked at 1st round draft picks to provide them players comparable to where they want to go shopping. If anything, you make my argument, talented OLB prospects can be had in later rounds.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

While I'd normally play along, I don't see much practical value in mock-drafting from a senior-only pool. HOWEVER, if we were to use this projection: WalterFootball.com: 2009 NFL Mock Draft
I would go with:
18. Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
40. Chase Coffman TE Missouri
49. Jamon Meredith OT South Carolina
86. Nic Harris S Oklahoma
97(c). Vince Oghobaase DE Duke

Mock drafting has a practical value?

If you wish to use walterfootball, I'll play along:

18. DT Terrence Cody, Alabama

39. OLB/TE Connor Barwin, Cincinnati

49. WR Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma

86. SS Chip Vaughn, Wake Forest

97 (c). OC Eric Woods, Louisville