Article stating why it makes more sense to be the #4 seed

[VJCPatriot]

I hate the idea of losing on purpose. PERIOD. It's just not sportsmanlike. If you want to be the champion, you gotta beat the best. Denver is not yet a lock for the #2 seed. They could drop a game before the season is over. You play the game to WIN the game!

 

[supafly]

I hate the idea of losing on purpose. PERIOD. It's just not sportsmanlike. If you want to be the champion, you gotta beat the best. Denver is not yet a lock for the #2 seed. They could drop a game before the season is over. You play the game to WIN the game!

The decision would have to be made based on next week's timeframe, so there would only be one game remaining.

Regardless, you make a good point, and many agree with you.

I personally would consider it on every angle myself, so I can't really say what side I would lean towards, but I would certainly want to look at all of the possibilities, scenarios, odds, etc.

Many like yourself would not choose to take my approach. I would hope that Belichick would look at all of the possibilities myself, but there's also that part of me that screams the same thing that you do.

 

[JoeSixPat]

At first this article seemed a bit silly to me, but after thinking it over for a minute it may very well be much better to drop to the #4 seed to gain matchups that may be more favorable.

That would of course, mean losing out in the finale at home vs MIA, as Belichick would obviously wait and see what shakes out this week depending on DEN/CLE, HOU/MIN, and possibly most importantly---BAL/NYG.

If we have the ability to drop down to the #4 seed, a decent case is stated to do so.

It would mean we'd host INDY and then go to HOUSTON (with the #4), as opposed to hosting PITTSBURGH/CINCINNATI, and then going to Mile High to play Manning and DENVER (with the #3).

Thoughts???


It Is What It Is » What NFL history says about (un)importance of Nos. 3 and 4 playoff seeds

It wouldn't be the first time we've (possibly) let Miami win at the end of the season to gain the better matchup.

Watch Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots [01/01/2006] - NFL.com

Belichick sat Brady and most of the staring WRs after the 1st quarter even with the 3/4 seed on the line.

If I recall it was felt that the Patriots were much better off hosting Jacksonville -

Given all that went on in that game - Cassell playing for the first time since high school, Flutie making his drop kick - and if I recall the Patriots still somehow still being in a position to win at the end of the game, with Matt Cassell making what looked like a suspiciously purposeful bad throw to ensure a completion was not made in a two point conversion (that only would have tied the game) to ice the game in the Dolphin's favor

The Patriots moved on in the playoffs to face a very weak Jacksonville team who they beat 28-3

 

[ctpatsfan77]

BB has 'dropped' a game before in 2006 when he played cassel vs dolphins(flutie drop kick game) so we could avoid pittsburgh and play jax.

IIRC, what happened was PIT was locked in as the #6 seed, while the Pats and Cincinnati were vying for the #3 seed. CIN got the #3 seed unless they lost AND the Pats won in Week 17.

Anyways, CIN wanted no part of the Squealers, and so they tanked in Week 17. . . .

And so then BB just said "#%@! that. Hey Bengals, here, have the 3 seed. I insist."

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Or if the refs didn't screw them over bad. Caldwell getting mugged in the endzone by Hayden on 3rd down has to be the worse no call PI in NFL history.

Or if the Patriots hadn't had a flu bug sweep through the locker room just days before the game, which caused players to go down like flies during the second half. There is no #@%!ing way BB intended to have Eric Alexander playing LB on the Colts' final TD drive in that game.

 

[robbomango]

There are a lot of things that seem strategically smart to do but I wouldn't recommend because I think they lower the integrity of the game and dampen the competitive spirit. Remember the looks on the faces of Colts starters in 09 when forced to sit out and not go for 16-0? It was depressing to say the least.

Okay done preaching, to each their own, peace...

 

[ATippett56]

FWIW--I doubt he does it, but I can almost guarantee that he gives it some thought.

What is there to think about?

The Patriots - Jaguars game will conclude before the Broncos - Browns game commences. There is always the slight possibility of an upset at Invesco Field.

 

[bostonia3333]

Seems like a no-brainer to me to lose on purpose the last two weeks. The problem is, both JAX and MIA are so bad, it's hard to lose if you tried. I am pretty sure if you put Mallet in the JAX game, he'd beat gabbert by 2 tds.


But yeah....

Indy and Houston road>>>>>>>>Pit and Den road any day

 

[NewFeep]

My attitude has always been, and will continue to be as follows: When you get into the playoffs, regardless of where you are seeded, if you are not good enough to beat a team in their place, well maybe you don't deserve to go to the superbowl!

I don't have the stats in front of me, but it seems to me more often than not Superbowls rarely feature the #1's in the big dance.

You beat who you gotta beat regardless of venue and stay relatively healthy doing it. Then you deserve a shot at being crowned Champions!!!!!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

While the article itself is nonsense for the general reason that "statistics lie" and the specific reason that those particular statistics are so abstract as to be ridiculous, I have one very simple reason for preferring #3 over #4.

Houston is not going to make it to the AFCCG. They are going to choke in the Division Round as the collar of 11 seasons of fan, media and ownership expectations after only the second winning season in Franchise history tightens around their throats; I have thought that all along, but after seeing how unprepared they were for the bright lights and big stage on Monday night in Foxboro, I am now confident they will go down.

That means that the AFCCG will be in Foxboro, after we win the real Conference Championship game in Denver.

If we don't think we can beat Pittsburgh or whomever in the Wild Card round in Foxboro, we shouldn't call ourselves fans.

 

[dannydyn]

While the article itself is nonsense for the general reason that "statistics lie" and the specific reason that those particular statistics are so abstract as to be ridiculous, I have one very simple reason for preferring #3 over #4.

Houston is not going to make it to the AFCCG. They are going to choke in the Division Round as the collar of 11 seasons of fan, media and ownership expectations after only the second winning season in Franchise history tightens around their throats; I have thought that all along, but after seeing how unprepared they were for the bright lights and big stage on Monday night in Foxboro, I am now confident they will go down.

That means that the AFCCG will be in Foxboro, after we win the real Conference Championship game in Denver.

If we don't think we can beat Pittsburgh or whomever in the Wild Card round in Foxboro, we shouldn't call ourselves fans.

Couldn’t agree more.

In a way, I’d actually rather take my chances and go through Mile High just to shut those donkeys up and make a statement! A following week trip to Reliant stadium would be a cakewalk compared to Mile High.

Also, if we are destined to end up in the Superbowl, I want the whole league to know we had to march through hell to get there. The last thing I want to hear is other teams, their fan bases, and the media, b1tching and moaning, how the Pats had ‘cheated’ their way into the big game, or otherwise, avoided the true AFC contenders.

Fck that! I want the Pats to make a bold of a statement as possible. The more I think about it, there more I’d WANT to go to Mile High (our record at that venue means jack - different season, different game). Have Brady wipe the floor with Manning’s *** (thereby ending any stupid Manning MVP discussions), then head over to Houston (assuming these clowns haven’t lost in the divisional round), and light them up as well.

Fck them all, BRING IT!

 

[IllegalContact]

seeding is irrelevant

just as the giants.....look at what they did last year and they lost 4 of 5 going into the playoffs.......

 

[blackglass3]

I'm not going to read through the whole thread, so I don't know if this point was made:

What happened the last 2 times we purposely lost a game? 2006, Rodney Harrison is lost for a month. 2009, Wes Welker...yeah we all remember. Teams that play like they don't give a crap tend to have bad things happen to them. IMHO.

We should play our best this week and every week.

 

[Froob]

They didn't lose or even try to lose to the titans in 06, in fact, they were trying to win incase the colts blew it and lost to the dolphins. Jeff Fisher had Bobby Wade take a cheapshot at Rodney. Probably cost them a title.

 

[coolguy]

seeding is irrelevant

just as the giants.....look at what they did last year and they lost 4 of 5 going into the playoffs.......

Unfortunately, the patriots don't have a defense that can shut offenses down like that.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

What happened the last 2 times we purposely lost a game? 2006, Rodney Harrison is lost for a month. 2009, Wes Welker...yeah we all remember. Teams that play like they don't give a crap tend to have bad things happen to them. IMHO.

We should play our best this week and every week.

If we were trying to lose in 2009, Wes would have never been on the field. That's ridiculous. I don't agree with 2006 either.

2005 I can agree because it was cut and dried- lose, rest, and face Jacksonville, or win and face the Steelers. The two point conversion tossed into the stands was hardly a subtle cue, but resting in the last game, even to lose it, is not unusual. There has to be a clear, certain benefit though. We have nothing of the sort this year.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The other is that Manning has progressed throughout the season and has gotten his team to play much better on both sides of the ball.

I can't wait for an explanation as to how Manning has gotten the Broncos defense to play better. Please, do explain...

 

[blackglass3]

If we were trying to lose in 2009, Wes would have never been on the field. That's ridiculous. I don't agree with 2006 either.

2005 I can agree because it was cut and dried- lose, rest, and face Jacksonville, or win and face the Steelers. The two point conversion tossed into the stands was hardly a subtle cue, but resting in the last game, even to lose it, is not unusual. There has to be a clear, certain benefit though. We have nothing of the sort this year.

Trying to lose might be a bad way to put it. Not giving a damn is most likely more accurate. That is the only way to explain playing the starters, then sitting them after the Welker injury, then putting Brady back in for a couple of series. At least that's how I remember it, although I had stopped paying a lot of attention because I was online looking for Welker news.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Trying to lose might be a bad way to put it. Not giving a damn is most likely more accurate. That is the only way to explain playing the starters, then sitting them after the Welker injury, then putting Brady back in for a couple of series. At least that's how I remember it, although I had stopped paying a lot of attention because I was online looking for Welker news.

The TV documentary covering that season actually gives some insights to this. The coaches, with Bill at the head of a table, are shown discussing who was dinged up and might benefit from a rest vs. Houston, with the inherent tone meaning that the actual outcome of the game was irrelevant as compared to the health of the team.

Amazingly, lots of names came up as guys to rest, even Wes's! But, with a 53 man roster you can't rest everyone who's not 100%, thus Wes started. From that show, it's clear his role was going to be somewhat limited, but on the first series...

 

[Colorado]

What if you rest players, drop the finale and Denver loses to KC? You would feel pretty stupid. With the #2 seed still a possibility, how could you justify it? It's a division game - KC played Denver tough just a few weeks ago.