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Article stating why it makes more sense to be the #4 seed

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by supafly, Dec 18, 2012.

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  1. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    At first this article seemed a bit silly to me, but after thinking it over for a minute it may very well be much better to drop to the #4 seed to gain matchups that may be more favorable.

    That would of course, mean losing out in the finale at home vs MIA, as Belichick would obviously wait and see what shakes out this week depending on DEN/CLE, HOU/MIN, and possibly most importantly---BAL/NYG.

    If we have the ability to drop down to the #4 seed, a decent case is stated to do so.

    It would mean we'd host INDY and then go to HOUSTON (with the #4), as opposed to hosting PITTSBURGH/CINCINNATI, and then going to Mile High to play Manning and DENVER (with the #3).

    Thoughts???


    It Is What It Is » What NFL history says about (un)importance of Nos. 3 and 4 playoff seeds
  2. dales804

    dales804 Rookie

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    Disable Jersey

    I was waiting for this to come out, either in an article or in a thread here. I say just get healthy for the playoffs. Whatever seed they end up with, so be it.
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    This is the time of year where superstition reigns supreme. Everyone has obscure stats about why a team is more or less likely to win. Patriots really hurt themselves by dropping the bye and HFA vs. Denver. Bottom line is, they need play championship football in the playoffs, and play championship football consistently. They'll have some tough matchups, and they'll need to win them.

    I think it's well-documented that most of the recent Super Bowl championships had to go through hell just to get there.
  4. I.M. Fletcher

    I.M. Fletcher Rookie

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    My only issue with this thinking it is a false sense of control. Sure Cincy sounds great in round one, but what if the Colts falter? I know we did a number on them, but I am not sure I want to play a team with absolutely nothing to lose and playing strong for their coach.

    There are just so many things that can happen in the playoffs, which is why the easiest decision is to just win, not worry about the rest and show up when you need to.
  5. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Rookie

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    I am still expecting Baltimore to be the 6th seed. I see them losing out. No matter what, I don't see Balt, Indy,Cinn or Pitt beating Houston or Denver. The Pats have to play both of them away, so I don't see how the order matters.
  6. doesntmatter1

    doesntmatter1 Rookie

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    I'll take whatever path leads to the superbowl but it would seem like a good choice to avoid superbowl winning qbs in ben and peyton. So if we magically lose out I will not panic and assume the club agrees with this as well.
  7. The Gr8est

    The Gr8est Rookie

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    Lets wait and see if Cleveland can beat Denver this week. The Browns are playing well and the Broncos may just mentally relax now that the Pats lost.
  8. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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    BB has 'dropped' a game before in 2006 when he played cassel vs dolphins(flutie drop kick game) so we could avoid pittsburgh and play jax.
  9. randomk1

    randomk1 Rookie

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    Meh **** all of this. Sure a bye and homefield would be good but we dropped games. Either we go on the road and prove we are the best team or we fall short. Nothing more to it.
  10. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Well sure, I am not advocating losing both games, but possibly resting the starters vs MIA in the last game to drop down.

    It's on this week in JAX for sure, next week vs MIA those decisions will have to be made if Belichick sees it that way.
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Exactly, and had it not been for the greatest comeback in AFCCG history from a 21-3 deficit, we'd probably be the SB champs again.

    I certainly wouldn't put it past him to give this a strong thought if/when the time comes next week.
  12. juxtapoz15

    juxtapoz15 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The main problem I have with purposefully losing in week 17 is that we won't know the outcome of the Denver 4:30PM game. There is the potential that Denver could lose and we could have been the #2 seed and get the bye. If we lose at 1PM then Denver will have nothing to play for besides trying to keep momentum.
  13. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    That's why the choice would have to be made next week, to see how the games shake out on Sunday.

    It isn't as much the worry of who we play in round one, but the ability to avoid going to Mile High vs Denver in round two.
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2012
  14. Elijah

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    #11 Jersey

    would you rather lose to Denver in the divisional round or AFC Championship?

    Or if you think we can take Denver, would your rather play PIT, @DEN, @HOU or IND, @HOU, @DEN?
  15. Ivan

    Ivan Rookie

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    Yep...............
  16. Elijah

    Elijah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    The dropped game was actually in 05.
  17. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    That is a fair point.

    Belichick tends to favor the odds though, so he may/may not take the extremely low odds of KC upsetting DEN into the equation.

    If I had to guess right now, I would say that he won't purposely rest the starters in week #17...however, if next week shows that it may be beneficial I certainly wouldn't put it past him.

    Not only could we potentially gain a better matchup, but they could use the last week as a 'bye' week anyway, seeing as how we have so many guys who are hurt. It may be beneficial in both aspects.
  18. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Oh okay, my bad then. I remember it happening, but could not remember if it was 2005 or 2006. Sometimes posters incorrectly state the season as the calendar year rather than the actual season year too.

    Either way, he's done it before. I imagine it will be considered at the very least. We'll have to see.
  19. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    The thinking could be that there would be one more game for Denver to have to play just to get to the AFCCG.

    That game would potentially be against Baltimore at the moment.

    While Baltimore isn't putting the fear of God into too many fans these days, they still could be a tough out come playoff time for Denver.

    To answer your question, I would rather host IND, then go to HOU, but that is obviously just my opinion.

    Like I said, at first the article seemed a bit silly to me, but once I went over the scenarios an argument could be made for sure.
  20. Foxypats

    Foxypats Rookie

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    There is still an outside chance of getting the bye. Denver could lose to Cleveland this week and if the Pats beat JAX, then this whole point is moot. I am ofcourse hoping for that, then the Pats control their destiny again and play lights out against the dolphins.
  21. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Have to play to win both games, if just to give yourself a shot at a bye in the event that Denver slips up.
  22. FortressX

    FortressX Rookie

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    The problem with this nonsense is that if the Colts thought like this in 2006 they would have been coming here to play the AFCCG instead of the RCA dome.
    The 2005 Pats were not that great.
    This team is different and if not for the replacement refs we wouldn't even be having this talk.
    Top seeds are still in play and if not.
    Colts
    Steelers
    Giants
    All have won from the lower seeds, Pats can too.
  23. robbomango

    robbomango Rookie

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    I'm hoping RAC does us a favor and takes down the forehead for the Pats just before the playoffs.
  24. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't like manipulating wins & losses in order to get a lower seed. Didn't we try that once and it blew up in our faces (the year we lost to Baltimore at home, if I recall)? Just play the best you can, try to win every game to the max and let's see what happens.
  25. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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    miami with their front and being a division game wont be as easy a win that they would need think throwing it either i think
  26. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    I'd rather be a #3 and watch to see if Baltimore or Pittsburgh can beat Houston while New England travels to Denver.

    Then the Patriots can host the AFCCG and Pitt/Baltimore.
  27. Soadisthebest

    Soadisthebest Rookie

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    seriously? i think its common sense to figure out that in most cases in the 3rd and 4th seeds are inferior teams, but not this time. this is something the jets would do.
  28. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    You all act as though the #2 seed is impossible. All that needs to happen is for Denver to lose 1 of their next 2 games!! And If the Pats win out the next 2 games, we're the #2 seed.:bricks:
  29. Joey007

    Joey007 Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    Houston could also lose their last two... Very unlikely, but they do face two winning record teams.

    We've seen crazier.
  30. fnordcircle

    fnordcircle tfw not enough helmets PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's what's going to happen:

    The Patriots are going to win their remaining two games and will be the #2 or #3 seed. They're going to win 2 or 3 playoff games and then they are going to win the Super Bowl.

    Everything else is just jibba jabba.
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