Article documentation of Patriots 2nd half adjustment problems

[Triumph]

Brady doesnt seem patient anymore to me.

And, the long ball is not his strong suit. Bob George is right. Moss's one hand TD is incomplete and over thrown like many Brady bombs if Moss doesnt make a highlight catch.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Just watching the game now but the pats look fantastic in the first 20 minutes. Dominating on offense and pretty solid on defense.

I don't get it.

The Pats and Belichick go into games with strong game plans from a week of superior preparation and game planning. The offense and defense plays very well, in fact the 2009 offense was the best 1st half team in the league. However, Belichick can't be at 4 places at once after the game starts. He has to rely on his assistants, who end up getting outclassed especially after the 1st half. The exact same Patriots talent and personnel that plays so well in the first 30 minutes, plays significantly worse after opposing teams adjust.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Here's more.

In 2009 Tom Brady had a QB rating of 100 in the 1st half, and 75.9 in the 4th quarter.
Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

In 2010, small sample size but his QB rating is 119 in the 1st half, 59 in the 2nd half.
Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

 

[PatsChamp88]

Articles aren't necessary...

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I don't think anybody would dispute that for whatever reason, the Pats need to perform better at the start of the second half. Whether that is half-time adjustments, game planning, play calling, being too predictable, obtaining some high quality H2O from the water boy or whatever other reason, I don't think you'll find much debate on that topic.

The one thing I would say is that some of those stats are a bit skewed due to a few games in which the Pats have built big leads in the first half.

This is a good point, except that the Pats were about 50/50 in points scored in the 1st and 2nd halves for the 10 years prior to 2009, so this does seem to be a recent and new phenomena with the team.

I think the documentation of the 2nd half issues are necessary, given the fact that there still a few here (AndyJohnson, Mo, Deus) who still insist to varying degrees that:
- There isn't an established 2nd half problem with this team
- It's only a talent and personnel issue
- It's only an execution issue

Clinging to these positions is odd, when the exact same talent and personnel is executing so well in the 1st halves over the past 18 games. I do wonder if some of these posters are either biased family members of the Pats' staff, or PR professionals intent on projecting a certain viewpoint.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Half time in the NFL is 12 minutes. That includes the time getting in and out of the locker room, doing ones business and getting out on the field for kickoff.

In College and HS the half times are 20 mins and maybe longer. So how much time is there to make these overrated halftime adjustments? Adjustments are made from the first series on.

I can't explain the Patriots 2nd half swoons lately, and to deny them is denying facts. But I'm tired of hearing about "halftime adjustments". There just isn't enough time during break to make meaningful adjustments.

 

[Garbanza]

If Tedy Bruschi finds it troublesome, I am onboard.

I would imagine "adjustments" take place all game long - from the 2nd qtr on. The adjustments are either poor or the Pats do not have the personnel to execute them properly. Watching the NFL Channel last night I beleive it is both. Safties so out of position it was laughable. ( Someone really needs to explain the Chung love to me once and for all because I see a very flawed player.) The inability to see run versus pass. Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, did not matter - they were BAD.

The 2nd half offenseive woes are all on bb, o'brien and brady. impatience, ego and stubborness. Bad compbo.

 

[Garbanza]

I never thought that Sanchez would outplay Brady but thats wat happened in that second half.

Any quaterback will have a career day against the Pats defense. It's THAT bad.

Sanchez is not as bad as he looked against the Ravens and he's not as good as he looked against the Pats. He is an average QB. It's the Pats defense that makes average look amazing...

 

[emoney_33]

How could Andy explain away the rational of such genius NFL analysts as those cited by the OP? LOL

And Shame on Tedy for piling on sans coaches tape. It's an issue I have with former player analysts, particularly when they played here in this system. I bet there were plenty of Monday mornings when Tedy thought the coaches screwed up, until Bill started screening the damn film... Film doesn't lie. Players sometimes misinterpret what happened because in the heat of the moment they thought they saw something or they didn't see something, and the alternative is admitting they failed to execute. Players, including ex players, have egos - even if they hung them at the door when they played here. It annoys players to see scheme and system get the credit when they execute, which they insist belongs at least in equal measure to talent. Only problem is if that's the case then the same holds true when they don't, and blaming it on scheme is the lazy way out.

What are you? Bruschi says something that you disagree with and your entire premise is that he's an egomaniac that can't stand the "scheme" getting credit. All the while discrediting him because you believe, without any way to possibly know, that Tedy believed the coaches screwed up until Bill proved him wrong on the film "plenty" of times...

So you can't possibly know 1/100th of what Tedy knows yet you are qualified to dismiss his 'opinion' as ego-driven hogwash? Oh the irony

 

[DropKickFlutie]

What are you? Bruschi says something that you disagree with and your entire premise is that he's an egomaniac that can't stand the "scheme" getting credit. All the while discrediting him because you believe, without any way to possibly know, that Tedy believed the coaches screwed up until Bill proved him wrong on the film "plenty" of times...

So you can't possibly know 1/100th of what Tedy knows yet you are qualified to dismiss his 'opinion' as ego-driven hogwash? Oh the irony

It really is amazing how a beloved figure like Tedy Bruschi calls it like it is, and the reaction from Mo is immediate ad hominem and character assassination of Bruschi. Do you think his blind position is so extreme that he'd turn on Tom Brady st some point too, despite his screen name?

 

[BradyFTW!]

What are you? Bruschi says something that you disagree with and your entire premise is that he's an egomaniac that can't stand the "scheme" getting credit. All the while discrediting him because you believe, without any way to possibly know, that Tedy believed the coaches screwed up until Bill proved him wrong on the film "plenty" of times...

So you can't possibly know 1/100th of what Tedy knows yet you are qualified to dismiss his 'opinion' as ego-driven hogwash? Oh the irony

It's the kind of thing where I'd take it for what it was and move along, except that if someone else attempts even a tenth of the conjecture that he loaded into that post, even with some actual logical basis behind it, he'll hit you back within 3 minutes with a post about how you're offering nothing but conjecture. But it's been pointed out to him a hundred different times by a hundred different posters; if he's still blind to it then there isn't much left that you or anyone else can say.

Just accept that MLR and MLR alone has the ability to magically see what happens behind closed doors in Foxboro. That's the core premise of most of his arguments. If someone like Tedy Bruschi disagrees, then they simply have some ulterior motive for lying.

 

[Kontradiction]

Half time in the NFL is 12 minutes. That includes the time getting in and out of the locker room, doing ones business and getting out on the field for kickoff.

In College and HS the half times are 20 mins and maybe longer. So how much time is there to make these overrated halftime adjustments? Adjustments are made from the first series on.

I can't explain the Patriots 2nd half swoons lately, and to deny them is denying facts. But I'm tired of hearing about "halftime adjustments". There just isn't enough time during break to make meaningful adjustments.

Exactly. Those who are harping constantly on the "big time halftime adjustments" have probably never played competitive football at any level in their lives. Halftime adjustments, in this case, are extremely overrated.

 

[Kontradiction]

Sorry, but you are wrong. The Jets players, themselves, after the game said that the reason they controlled thesecond half is that they made adjustments and the Patriots did nothing to counter them.

There is plenty of time to make adjustments. These guys are pros, they understand the terminology and blackboards like the back of their hands. It only takes mintes to say "we are gonna do this instead of this" They know what has to be done. ALL TEAMS DO IT, apparently except the Patriots judging from the stats in the last 18 games or so.

Actually, it's been proven that the Patriots did plenty to try to counter them. Switching to zone blocking against a less aggressive defensive scheme is a fundamentally good idea, for example. The execution just wasn't there.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

It's the kind of thing where I'd take it for what it was and move along, except that if someone else attempts even a tenth of the conjecture that he loaded into that post, even with some actual logical basis behind it, he'll hit you back within 3 minutes with a post about how you're offering nothing but conjecture. But it's been pointed out to him a hundred different times by a hundred different posters; if he's still blind to it then there isn't much left that you or anyone else can say.

Just accept that MLR and MLR alone has the ability to magically see what happens behind closed doors in Foxboro. That's the core premise of most of his arguments. If someone like Tedy Bruschi disagrees, then they simply have some ulterior motive for lying.

It is bizarre how entrenched his viewpoint is.

In response to the recent comments about "half time adjustments", it isn't just the 12 minutes during halftime. Basically, once the game starts, both teams are in a constant basis of analyzing what the opponent is doing, and what is working and isn't working. The game of adjustments takes place during the entire 3 hours of football, and the data that we have to analyze is usually given to us in terms of quarters and halves of games.

The talent and execution excuse is a far lazier excuse than calling out play calling, simply because in a capped league like the NFL, every team has flaws to some extent in terms of its roster and personnel.

 

[mgteich]

What do the players who played the game know anyway? Surely posters here are correct when they say that we made fine corrections during the game and at halftime. It is only rubes like us who think that we were outcoached.

Sorry, but you are wrong. The Jets players, themselves, after the game said that the reason they controlled thesecond half is that they made adjustments and the Patriots did nothing to counter them.

There is plenty of time to make adjustments. These guys are pros, they understand the terminology and blackboards like the back of their hands. It only takes mintes to say "we are gonna do this instead of this" They know what has to be done. ALL TEAMS DO IT, apparently except the Patriots judging from the stats in the last 18 games or so.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Sorry, but you are wrong. The Jets players, themselves, after the game said that the reason they controlled thesecond half is that they made adjustments and the Patriots did nothing to counter them.

There is plenty of time to make adjustments. These guys are pros, they understand the terminology and blackboards like the back of their hands. It only takes mintes to say "we are gonna do this instead of this" They know what has to be done. ALL TEAMS DO IT, apparently except the Patriots judging from the stats in the last 18 games or so.

You just keep digging that hole don't you ...

never before in the history of forums has one member posted so much who knew so little.

 

[jczxohn1]

Traditonally, if you are winning, you keep doing what you did 'til they stop you. Carrying this plan over into the 2nd 1/2 is fine, but teams are changing their defense and the Pats counter-punch isn't working. While I haven't researched it, my impression is that teams have, in general, done the reverse of "stop the run, make them beat you with the pass". Too often, in the 2nd 1/2, teams are able to apply pressure and stop the run with 3 or 4 man rushes, putting 7 or 8 men in coverage. One would think that BB,et al, would be able to predict what adjustments teams would make and a counter devised. IMO, they have done, and the execution has been poor. sadly, with Maroney gone and Faulk out, it won't get better with the present stable. IMO, Hernandez better spend the rest of his practice time learning to pick up blitzers. As an H back, he's the only guy on the team with the talent to cover 75% of Faulk's job.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Traditonally, if you are winning, you keep doing what you did 'til they stop you. Carrying this plan over into the 2nd 1/2 is fine, but teams are changing their defense and the Pats counter-punch isn't working. While I haven't researched it, my impression is that teams have, in general, done the reverse of "stop the run, make them beat you with the pass". Too often, in the 2nd 1/2, teams are able to apply pressure and stop the run with 3 or 4 man rushes, putting 7 or 8 men in coverage. One would think that BB,et al, would be able to predict what adjustments teams would make and a counter devised. IMO, they have done, and the execution has been poor. sadly, with Maroney gone and Faulk out, it won't get better with the present stable. IMO, Hernandez better spend the rest of his practice time learning to pick up blitzers. As an H back, he's the only guy on the team with the talent to cover 75% of Faulk's job.

I can't dig it up at the moment but I believe there are articles out there showing the Patriots have a very consistent tendency to run on 1st down, to have a more balanced run/pass ratio in the 1st half, and to significantly run less in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Last year, it was all the rage here to attribute the Pats problems to a mythical "Fourth Quarter Meltdown," when the real problem, as I said at the time, was the entire second half (except for the Miami game after the blowout in New Orleans).

Here's a little more fuel for the fire.

I went back and looked at Pats scoring, first half vs. second half, from 2001 to 2008.

Over those eight years, the Pats scored 50.7% of their points in the first half and 49.3% in the second half; effectively, a 50--50 split.

Of course, every season is different and I also looked at each season. Between 2001 and 2008, the percent of points scored in the first half ranged from 43% to 57% (the latter in the great season of 2007).

So, the 66% of points scored in the first half in 2009 was an anomaly; for the statisticians among you, 2009's performance was two standard deviations off of the mean for the nine years between 2001 and 2009, so this was a statistically significant event.

Over those same years (2001--2008), the Defense gave up 48.2% of points scored in the first half and 51.8% in the second half. In 2009, the D's numbers were nearly right on the average at 49.0% in the first half and 51.0% in the second half.

So, as has been observed, the Pats won the first half 282--136 and lost the second half 146--145 in 2009, with the responsibility clearly residing with the Offense.

I also looked at the number of games in which the Pats scored seven or fewer points in the second half. Between 2001 and 2008, the average is 4.8. But, in 2009, they scored seven or fewer points in the second half in seven games.

So, this is not an "imaginary" problem. Like most of you, I am grappling to understand it, but it is, no doubt, very real. Is it due to predictability, lack of motivation, bad play calling or something else?

 

[Patjew]

Could it be something as simple as training and fatigue?