Welcome to PatsFans.com

Are we TOO INVESTED in the Draft?: 7 Points to Consider

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by VJCPatriot, Apr 30, 2011.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2006
    Messages:
    12,347
    Likes Received:
    28
    Ratings:
    +46 / 1 / -4

    I see all this moaning and complaining not just through Day 1, but now Day 2 of the draft. And I have no doubt it will continue into Day 3 and beyond.

    I think that nobody will EVER be satisfied with a BB draft. Everyone has an opinion of what would make good picks for the Patriots. But those rarely jibe with Mr. Belichick's evaluation of the draft nor his picks.

    So what have we learned over the years? I think there's a few things that people haven't learned yet. Let's review.

    1. It's unhealthy to pin your hopes on any PARTICULAR player being taken by the Patriots. The odds of that happening are astronomically bad. Like a 1/9 chance if you're lucky. A 2/10 chance if you're really lucky. And a 3/10 chance if you're the blood relative of Nostradamus.

    2. BB TRADES DOWN when he can acquire value. Why is this hard to understand? It's an economic principal. BB is an economics major. That is why BB has harvested so many MORE picks than any other team over the past decade and why the Pats tend to have more 'lateral' talent than any other team in the NFL. BB's team philosophy is to beat you with his best '53' not with his best '10' players or so.

    3. Our ATTACHMENT to specific players through the draft process, draft research, mock drafts, draft parties etc. UNREALISTICALLY builds up hype and expectations that the Pats will draft particular players or even positions that we have concluded are 'team needs'. No doubt by reading Lindsay's, by listening to the Kipers and the McShays, by tuning into PFW, etc.

    4. When BB doesn't address what we have 'worked ourselves up' to believing are the NEEDS over the months leading up to the draft. When our above built-up EXPECTATIONS are NOT MET -- inevitably this leads to rage-like, angry, bitter reactions. Like spurned lovers we who are denied our 'binkies' of choice, we turn immediately on the object of our IRE, that BB, he's trying to OUTSMART us! He's making us look DUMB! How dare he REFUSE to address OUR NEEDS?

    Well the grim facts are that neither us, nor the talking heads, nor the 'draft experts' really know what BB considers the team's actual NEEDS except through the results of his actions. Therefore OUR NEEDS are not necessarily what BB considers the team's primary needs.

    And perhaps even if he considers those NEEDS as important, he might choose to address them in a different order, for example how he usually turns to Linebackers via Free Agent Veterans rather than through the draft.

    OR, perhaps he may wait a year longer than we expected to address the need. Such as in 2006, the Pats had to rely on receivers so awful that Reche 'Bugeyes' Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney were our #1 and #2 options respectively. The situation wasn't addressed until a terrible 2006 playoff loss where Caldwell dropped a wide open, possibly game-clinching reception. We obtained Randy Moss and Wes Welker the next year in 2007 and the rest is history.

    OR, consider that after the failure of the Maroney Experiment became clear, and our RBs became old, brittle, and injury prone. Many including yours truly, believed RB was a need. Yet the Pats did not draft any RBs in 2010 but relied on a pair of UDFAs in Ben Jarvis Green Ellis and Danny Woodhead instead. And those players did rather well in the regular season but were shut down by the Jets in the Pats latest playoff loss. Meanwhile Matt Light became a free agent, Neal retired, and Kaczur's retention was put in doubt. Enter the draft and we get - a franchise LT drafted in round 1. TWO RBs drafted in rounds 2 and 3 respectively.

    5. Are the people SHOCKED? Yes. But was there a Need there. Absolutely. In the END the reason why we didn't foresee all these moves coming? NOT because we're Dumb. Far from it. In fact the Patsfans forum is full of some of the most intelligent football posters you will find across the country. And certainly well above the level of many of the other team forums I've frequented by chance. NO what HAPPENED HERE is that we became VICTIMS of GROUPTHINK. By establishing a CONSENSUS of NEEDS, and a POOL of draftable PLAYERS we convinced OURSELVES what the Pats Needs and moves should be in this year's draft.

    6. And we so INVESTED ourselves in this process that when the reality of BB's actual plan became apparent, that so CLASHED with the one that we had carefully built up over the months leading to the draft. The INEVITABLE FALLOUT occurs. And this has been a RECURRING EVENT over the past 11 years that BB has held a DRAFT.

    So why, I wonder, when there are evidently so many intelligent and PASSIONATE fans here do we repeatedly become victims of this process? Perhaps the Passion and the Investment and the 'Groupthink' process will inevitably lead to this result. Because we aren't actually in BB's Inner Circle, we are not part of his 'Groupthink' and therefore that will lead to Invariably Different Results which will thus result in Disappointment, Anger, Bitterness, and even Rage.

    7. My thoughts on the best Approach to a Patriots Draft?
    Don't Invest yourself too heavily on any Particular Outcome or any Particular Player. And by goodness, above all else DON'T fall into the TRAP of listening to the Mediots, Pundits, or Draft Experts.

    Expect the Unexpected, and learn to Roll with the Blows.
    "It is what it Is." It's a BB draft. So have a brew, Chill Out, and go to bed. There's always tomorrow. And of course there's always free agency. That is IF the entire season doesn't end up getting locked out that is! I hope reading through some of this will help Soothe the Savage Beast that has been awakened in Some by this year's 2011 Patriots Draft. :)
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2011
  2. Hercules Rockefeller

    Hercules Rockefeller Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2009
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

  3. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    6,009
    Likes Received:
    69
    Ratings:
    +138 / 10 / -8

    Aaah. Rationality for a change. Isn't it wonderful.:D:D:D
  4. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,808
    Likes Received:
    180
    Ratings:
    +352 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    Great post.

    I wonder how many people that are upset with the draft picks are people that make mock drafts and salivate over various players throughout the process. For me, I think that kind of stuff is a colossal waste of time, given that it's pretty rare to find a blue chip player in the draft. Those go within the first five picks, and everything after is even more of a guess.

    You never know what you're going to get, so I see the wisdom in stockpiling a lot of picks. It provides margin for error. Take 2009; what's looking like a bit of a whiff on Butler is offset by a nice pickup with Chung. Not every pick will turn out, and it's never easy to get a reasonable estimate on who will succeed, so improve your odds by stockpiling picks.

    I know, I know. If BB would only listen to the draft experts, the Pats could have had Kindle last year and our pass rushing woes would be over.
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2011
  5. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,222
    Likes Received:
    88
    Ratings:
    +203 / 1 / -0

    Rule 1: Bill is smarter than you are. Don't freak out until you see these guys on the field.

    Rule 2: If he's undersized and plays like his hair is on fire, don't get your hopes up (like a certain ESPN Boston reporter...)
  6. hellolin

    hellolin Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2011
    Messages:
    298
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    If bill picks a draft with players no one have heard of, he wins, didn't we learn this from last year folks?
  7. Calciumee

    Calciumee PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2008
    Messages:
    4,600
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    #3 Jersey

    Yayyy sanity :)
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,002
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +186 / 6 / -23

    Well said, this team is being rebuilt... last year we drafted two quality Tight Ends, this year we are moving on from Taylor, Morris and Kevin Faulk.. drafted what many consider as a very good Tackle..

    Drafted a qb that could be Brady's heir apparent, or could be used as trade bait in the future..

    Our DBackfield has been upgraded, no longer do we have to rely on the Hank Poteats to come in and play that position...

    Heard an interview with Wilfork the other day and he was talking about the infusion of youth on the D side of the ball, if you read between the lines he was saying we have enough youth and quality there...

    In reality you can only bring in so many youngsters on Defense, you need depth and experience..

    And we have not even hit free agency yet.. the draft is a crapshoot and so far like what BB has done.
  9. PittPatriot

    PittPatriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2007
    Messages:
    2,657
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0


    I think hoping for pass rushers in FA is a bit risky. When we go high profile (AD Thomas) it seems to bite us in the backside. When we go with JAGs, they end up being just that.
    I am overall "ok" with our draft...but just don't get the 2 RB's and "no pass rusher/OLB/DL worth drafting" thinking.
  10. RhodyPatriot

    RhodyPatriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2007
    Messages:
    2,411
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +12 / 12 / -5

    Now pick up kool-aid and sip......sip......sip.....

    (Bill Belichick's draft record is spotty (I'm being nice) at best. Belichick not only did not address/improve the biggest weakness on his team but he passed on much higher rated players who were available to him at the positions he did draft, OL, CB and RB)

    ....sip......sip......sip...... ;)
  11. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,002
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +186 / 6 / -23

    Not sure I fully comprehend all of the reasoning behind that, but overall we have retooled many aspects of this team..

    There are alternatives to the AD Thomas's of this world... one thing for sure that BB will always put this team in a position to win. We may not agree on his methods...
  12. RhodyPatriot

    RhodyPatriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2007
    Messages:
    2,411
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +12 / 12 / -5


    Retooled??? They drafted depth not impact.
    BB always puts his team in a position to win what Darryl?
    That is the question.
    Are the Patriots striving to win a championship every year?? Or are the Patriots striving to win 11 or 12 regular seasons games and be competitive every year as the clock ticks down on HOF QB Tom Brady's career??
    When looking at the players they passed on in this draft it's clearly the latter.
  13. betterthanthealternative

    betterthanthealternative Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2006
    Messages:
    2,215
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +70 / 3 / -0

    Your statement is based on assumptions about college player impact rooted in the draft industry hype. BB and his staff are more clear eyed that that.
  14. mcsully

    mcsully Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    2,042
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +4 / 3 / -0

    Overall people should be happy with the draft.. We have our LT, moved on from Taylor and Morris, and added some picks for next year

    I know people are curious on some of the actual players selected but this happened two years ago with Volmer. The talk was Beatty (giants) and the tackle in Balt. We got the better in the end

    My huge issue is bb didn't address our biggest flaw. And drafted a corner who has had injury issues with a high pick. Did we put ourselves over the hump today? I don't think so. We might have made ourselves deeper and increased our chances at another division title, I don't see us being a odds on favorite to win the SB
  15. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2008
    Messages:
    8,273
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +152 / 7 / -0

    #87 Jersey

    *The potential for Mallett is amazing if BB and co. can turn his attitude around. Watching his highlights is unbelievable:

    YouTube - Mallett For Heisman 2010 - Sweet Dreams

    *Atleast we are going with a young RB core. Two rookies and two 26 year olds.

    * A point not brought up is BB must have expectations for the kids at WR. Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Julian Edelman need to step up. One of them will be WR3 and I won't be surprised to see them starting when Branch breaks down.
  16. Simkin

    Simkin Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2009
    Messages:
    1,103
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    we are the worst team ever drafting. except for 2010
  17. A.C Vegas

    A.C Vegas Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2006
    Messages:
    2,156
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    If that were true why do the Pats keep winning and winning
  18. Sfpat

    Sfpat Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,579
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +16 / 2 / -0

    #80 Jersey

    I second your comment. A few points
    1. Pats have had the best winning record the past 10 years. Even won with a 7th round QB
    2. Winning Super Bowls takes talent and luck. Sometimes injuries and the bounce of the ball can derail a SB run (like the Pats last year with the rash of DL injuries, Crumpler's drop and the boneheaded fake punt). Despite the recent results and Rexy's talk, the Pats are still the better team - witness the 2nd game last year when the Pats were healthier and less stupid.
    2. NE works within a budget that is spread amongst the complete roster. NE is far and away the deepest team talent wise. With the budget means lots of good players and fewer great players but better results overall.
    3. Without a doubt, the number one factor in winning in the NFL is a franchise QB - witness our success with TB and Bledsoe before him, the Colts with PM, Chargers, well just about every team that has a franchise type QB. Mallet obviously has the potential to be the next in line (our Steve Young). This could be the most brilliant move BB has made since 2000 and could position the Pats to continue to win for a long time, assuming he develops as projected. Good QB's make good coaches.
    4. The need for DL is overstated. Yes there was no pressure in the Jets playoff game but IIRC we only had 2 healthy linemen for the game. Arrington was lining up as a rush DL. With the return of our injured linemen, we'll be fine.
    5. Yes, as an amateur talent evaluator, I would like to upgrade the linebackers, but as stated above, there is only so much money to go around. For now I can only hope the current talent improves or maybe they can get a value LB in FA. But what do I know.
    6. Another point is you can never have enough DB's. Can't complain too much about the Dowling pick.

    Overall, while the Pats didn't make any splash picks, they made the right moves to insure the team will continue to be highly competitive for a long time. The team is young and talented on both sides of the ball (and specialist) and has a ton of quality depth. And they went 14-2 last year.

    There are a lot of teams worse off than the Pats.
  19. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,222
    Likes Received:
    67
    Ratings:
    +113 / 2 / -1

    #75 Jersey

    I've been "invested" in the Patriots drafts since the late 1980's. Just because I put in months of work on the draft, spend money on draft guides and time on draft sites, I don't fool myself in thinking that I know as much as the team scouts or GM's.

    It's a winter hobby.

    Many a year with one or 2 exceptions, my months of work have evaporated when BB makes his picks. That doesn't mean that I get all upset about it. Things have worked out quite well with BB drafting over the years.

    Sure I get frustrated during the selection process, and disagree with the picks made (like this year). But I don't go off on them and start shooting from the hip. I prefer to wait and see how they actually work out in the big picture.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>