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AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Fogbuster, Oct 22, 2008.

  1. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    [size=+3]AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch[/size]

    Oct 22 01:23 PM US/Eastern
    By LIZ SIDOTI
    Associated Press Writer

    WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

    The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

    Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

    The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

    AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


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  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Another fogical comment, find a favorable poll and post it, if you find another one tommorrow post that one and then say the original poll was biased.. here is your beloved Zogby.. guess it was hacked today..

    BTW polls do not mean all that much, just a statistical guess based on a scientific method.

    Zogby International

    Obama 51.6%
    McCain 42%
     
  3. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    For those who might have missed it the first time, from AP, the Associated Press, NOT some "right-wing" nutter place:


     
  4. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    so does this one count?
     
  5. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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  6. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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  7. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    Fogic:

    If a poll says what you want it to, it means the results are valid. If it doesn't, then the polls are inaccurate.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2008
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Unfortunately I don't buy the close polls - that said, I have no clue how the country can actually want this guy, between his lack of experience and his "connections".
     
  9. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Meanwhile, the stock market is tanking 500+ pts....:eek:

    Do any of you actually believe that either of these men will "improve" the economy? If you do, it would be the first time in history an American president has accomplished that feat.

    Here we have the #1 issue with all Americans...our faltering economy, and we're going to vote for the guy we believe will "handle" it the best.

    Guess what people? Neither of them can do a damn thing. The economy is going to go whichever way it needs to go and there's nothing anyone can about it.

    Y'all do know this, don'cha?
     
  10. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The problem is that BO Reid & Pelosi will make things worse with their policies.
     
  11. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Any policy that's purpose is to fix the economy will make it worse...that's what free market economics is all about
     
  12. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This means a landslide for Mccain/Palin and Joe The Plumber.
    Jesus And Virgin Mary Are Watching Over Us, Praise The Christ Savior, GOD BLEESS AMERICA
     
  13. baba booey

    baba booey Practice Squad Player

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    Did Palin scare you when she said he "pals around with terrorists"?
     
  14. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here is a bunch of polls..

    Note the Fox One says Obama is up by 9 points..

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

    Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
    RCP Average 10/15 - 10/21 -- -- 49.8 43.0 Obama +6.8
    FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
    Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/21 3000 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
    Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/19 - 10/21 1208 LV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
    Gallup (Traditional)* 10/19 - 10/21 2384 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
    Gallup (Expanded)* 10/19 - 10/21 2299 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
    Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
    IBD/TIPP 10/17 - 10/21 1088 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
    ABC News/Wash Post 10/17 - 10/20 1324 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
    GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/21 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2
    Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
    Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
    CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
    Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

    See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
     
  15. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    Who cares what THOSE polls say. AP is the only one that's accurate.


    :D

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  16. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    No, but it made me look at Obama differently. Nobody knows who this guy is. He's never even produced his birth certificate, although he was asked for it two months ago. Why not? Some people say he was actually born in Kenya, not Hawaii. Where's his birth certificate, so we can clear up this mess?? Why doesn't he show it?? What's he hiding??

    Bill Ayers.

    "Rev" Jeremiah Wright ("God DAMN America")

    Saul Alinsky

    Rezko

    Bernadine Dorhn

    Etc, etc., etc......

    "Redistribute the wealth" (????)

    "Tax the 'rich'" (???)

    ... and give to.... ??

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    Last edited: Oct 22, 2008
  17. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    Before that you were an ardent Obama supporter:rolleyes:
     
  18. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    I said 10 months ago I was seriously considering Obama. Never an "ardent supporter", or a supporter of any kind for that matter, but did give him very careful consideration.

    What turned it for me, however, is his repeatedly stated pledge NOT to sign the "Defense of the Family Act". That is a deal-killer for me. Anybody who is not willing to state unequivocally that a family is one man, one woman, and their children is not fit to be president (or any lesser public office, for that matter). His stand on any kind of abortion is allowable, even late-term/partial birth/post birth "euthanasia" is too extreme for me, too.


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  19. jack

    jack 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    There are eight current national polls that list separate sets of results for likely and registered voters. (In this case, for reasons that will be apparent momentarily, I am deliberately double-counting the two Gallup likely voter models). On average, Barack Obama leads by 9.8 points in the registered voter versions of these polls, but by 7.0 points in the likely voter versions -- nearly a 3-point difference:

    Note, however, that the likely voter models appear to segregate themselves into two clusters. In one cluster, there is a rather large, 4-6 point difference between registered and likely voter results. In the other cluster, there is essentially no difference.

    The first cluster coincides with Gallup's so-called "traditional" likely voter model, which considers both a voter's stated intention and his past voting behavior. The second cluster coincides with their "expanded" likely voter model, which considers solely the voter's stated intentions. Note the philosophical difference between the two: in the "traditional" model, a voter can tell you that he's registered, tell you that he's certain to vote, tell you that he's very engaged by the election, tell you that he knows where his polling place is, etc., and still be excluded from the model if he hasn't voted in the past. The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the "expanded" model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself.

    Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous. Why?

    1. Among people who have already voted, Democrats lead overwhelmingly. Zogby pegs Barack Obama's advantage at 27 points among people who have already voted. The New York Times details how Democrats are overperforming, sometimes dramatically, in states where early voting is underway. (By the way, the New York Times' data on Florida is wrong, as it includes absentee ballot requests as well as early voters. According to an Open Left diarist, Democrats have a 24-point advantage among those who have actually voted early in Florida).

    Pollsters ought to make certain that they're asking people whether they've already voted. Moreover, they ought to be putting these early voters through their likely voter models as a sanity check. That is, they should be testing to see whether a substantial number of people who have actually voted would in fact have been excluded by their likely voter screens. If the answer to this question is yes, they ought to be asking themselves whether their likely voter models have any basis in reality.

    2. Enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans. The latest Diageo/Hotline numbers show that 72 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting for their candidate, as opposed to 55 percent of Republicans.

    3. Most likely voter models are unlikely to distinguish newly registered voters from what I would call lapsed registered voters. If someone is registered, and has been registered for a long while, but has not cast a ballot since they pulled the lever for Ross Perot in 1992, there is good reason to be skeptical about their intentions. On the other hand, voters who are newly registered have quite literally demonstrated their interest in the 2008 campaign; they are in fact quite likely to vote. Barack Obama's advantages are principally from among the newly-registered voter group.

    4. There is an enormous discrepancy in the strength of the Republican and Democratic turnout operations. In past elections, such as 2004, this advantage favored the Republicans; in this one, it favors the Democrats. Barack Obama has somewhere between a 2:1 and a 4:1 advantage in field offices in most battleground states. He is relying almost exclusively on volunteers (the exception are a couple of cities like Philadelphia and Detroit, where Obama will most likely pay 'street money' to canvassers on Election Day). McCain, meanwhile, has already had to hire paid canvassers in Florida, and perhaps he will also in several other states.

    5. Turnout among 'unlikely' voter blocks was substantially up during the Democratic primaries. Youth voters (18-29 year olds) increased their share of the Democratic electorate by 52 percent. Latino voters increased their share by 42 percent. Black voters increased their share by 8 percent.

    I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me -- my contact information is at the top of the page -- and tell me why you think what you're doing is good science."

    -- Nate Silver at 1:52 PM

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/som...re-suspect.html

    If you click on the link you see that the average national poll has Obama up 8-10 points. And the Electoral College is worse for McCain.
     
  20. elway7

    elway7 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Who is Nate silver?
     

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