Anyone want to rethink Branch's trade value?

[zippo59]

I totally agree. It seems that Stalworth's size and the fact that he was picked in the first round are the largest reasons for choice. If that is the case, than Charles Rogers must be better too!

No, it's the fact that he has put up comparable numbers to Branch.

 

[Oswlek]

No, it's the fact that he has put up comparable numbers to Branch.

I don't know if you are familiar with a site called Footballoutsiders.com, but their game charting says there is a large gap between Branch and Stalworth.

Here are the WR rankings for

2005
2004
2003

I will point out a few highlights if some of this doesn't make sense.

* In the three years listed Stalworth never caught more than 55% of catchable passes, with his worst year at 45%. Branch by comparison was at 55% at his worst year and 69% and 63% in the other two. Over 60% is the mark of a good receiver.

* The rankings are in DPAR, which is their way of saying how effective was this receiver per play times the number of plays. A great receiver who missed most of the year would grade out below a good receiver who played the whole season by this metric. The have another column called DVOA, this is just the per play metric, so it says how valuable someone was while they were on the field. According to DVOA, if you grade out at 0, it means that you are an average receiver. Due to the fact that both receivers have mssed games, I will just look at DVOA.

Stalworth
2003 1.4
2004 (-)1
2005 3.7

Branch
2003 23.3
2004 36.2
2005 19.5

So, Stalworth has been essentially a league average receiver over the past three years. Branch has been near the top 15 in DVOA for starting WRs. You will see a 65 on DVOA for guys that only get into 25-30 plays over the course of the season, but typically the top starter will be around 40.

Branch is much, much better than Stalworth. The comparison is silly, really.

BTW, I don't always agree with the opinions of footballoutsiders. For instance, they just had an article listing NEs coaching staff as the 8th best in the league, falling behind such powerhouse staffs of Cincy and Indy. That said, their stats are usually quite accurate.

 

[dryheat44]

I'm a big fan of footballoutsiders. And a believer.

However, what their statistics mean is that Deion Branch, with Tom Brady throwing to him, with the New England offensive line and the New England Defense, is much better than Donte Stallworth, with Aaron Brooks throwing to him, with the New Orleans offensive line and New Orleans defense.

I don't think anybody would disagree with that.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Stallworth is making $1.9M in the 5th year of his rookie contract. He was not holding out but rather butting heads with a new HC looking to change an existing culture - same reason we were able to swap Bethel for Sullivan.

This trade actually underscores the reality that Deion isn't worth a 1st but he is also not worth a Reggie Wayne contract. Which is exactly the point the Patriots are hoping to drive home. The Eagles pulled the trigger on Stallworth because they need a # 1 WR but they too are not willing to over pay for one. Getting a new deal to play is apparently not a condition for Stallworth. So if the Eagles like what they see from him they can plan to negotiate an extension down the road. And it likely won't be for Reggie Wayne money from the fiscally conservative Eagles unless he and Donovan are hooking up for a 1200+ yard double digit TD season.

Stallworth may not be as good as Deion, but size does matter in the NFL, as does durability and price/value and as does putting up stats - particularly on a bad team with JAG QB's. The perception exists that while Deion is talented he also actually benefits from as opposed to being hindered by playing in this system that spreads the ball around because he is not the prototypical #1 and he struggles against double teams. And Brady's ability to find others when he is unable to get open actually helps get him open for a QB who will then find him when he is. Not many NFL teams have a QB they believe can make his WR's, and if they did they would be foolish to overpay for the WR position.

And while the alternate prototype small #1 guys like Smith and Moss appear at times to buck that trend, they also have out performed Deion while dealing with their own durability issues and have either signed incremental contracts along the road (Smith in '04) or been involved in trades which led to extensions. Moss was due to be paid $540K on his rookie deal when he was traded to Washington last spring and held out briefly on Rosenhaus' advice before signing an extension that will pay him $26M between 2005-2009.

The Patriots tried to reward Deion incrementally in 2005 and he wanted no part of it. They offered him Moss money this season and he didn't even bother to counter it. If he's worth Wayne money because he's really one of the top 5 WR in the league, then he is certainly worth a 1st round draft choice in a exchange for the prviledge of paying it to him. The Pat's think he's not, and that is what they did this to prove to him.

If a team does come along who believes we are mistaken, it won't be the first time. That one believes that that is. Buffalo (twice), Tennessee, NO, Detroit, Washington have all paid a premium for talent they believed this franchise undervalued. Jonathan Kraft will point out that thus far it hasn't helped any of them and may in fact have hurt them in the long run. That is what this team will not do, hurt itself in the long run for fear of the impact in the short run.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm a big fan of footballoutsiders. And a believer.

However, what their statistics mean is that Deion Branch, with Tom Brady throwing to him, with the New England offensive line and the New England Defense, is much better than Donte Stallworth, with Aaron Brooks throwing to him, with the New Orleans offensive line and New Orleans defense.

I don't think anybody would disagree with that.

Yes, there are some other factors than just the "pure worth" of the receiver. But, if Stalworth's situation was that inhibitive, than how come Joe Horn was so good in 2003/2004?

Much of the blame for Stalworth's three mediocre seasons is his, IMHO.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

This trade actually underscores the reality that Deion isn't worth a 1st but he is also not worth a Reggie Wayne contract. Which is exactly the point the Patriots are hoping to drive home.

If he's worth Wayne money because he's really one of the top 5 WR in the league, then he is certainly worth a 1st round draft choice in a exchange for the prviledge of paying it to him. The Pat's think he's not, and that is what they did this to prove to him.

If a team does come along who believes we are mistaken, it won't be the first time.

Precisely the points I attempted to make but said better above. The Pats called Deion & his agen'ts bluff. "You say you're a Top 5, then other teams will pay a Top 5 price for you." My bet here is that the foolish GMs may sit this one out, partially for reasons you cited about Branch's missed games & the Pats system. Is The Twig a TOP FIVE WR in anyone's system? Hell no.