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Anyone want to rethink Branch's trade value?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jeffd, Aug 29, 2006.

  1. jeffd

    jeffd Rookie

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    After seeing Dante Stallworth get traded for an decent starting LB and a probable 3rd round pick (NFL network reported the only condition to the pick was playing time, no stats). I'm not the biggest Branch fan but I feel he is head and shoulders above Stallworth. I'm beginning to think he can possibly bring in a 1st round pick, which the Pats should take for him.
  2. Johnny Z

    Johnny Z Rookie

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    Representing the Green Bay packers, I offer:

    Nick Barnett
    Robert Ferguson
    Rod Gardner
    Chaz Woodson
    a 4th-round conditional draft pick.

    3 1st-rounders and a player projected to be a 1st-rounder if he had stayed in school.

    Oh, and your team will be significantly worse off.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  3. PatsRI

    PatsRI PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Felger disagrees saying that the trade for Stallworth lowers the asking price. He also thinks Stallworth may be better than Branch:

    Based on that return, it’s nearly impossible to conceive a scenario in which the Pats would receive a first- or second-round pick for Branch.

    A case even could be made that Stallworth is worth more than Branch.

    Stallworth, 25 and a 2002 first-round draft pick, caught 70 passes for 945 yards and seven touchdowns last year. He is 6-feet, 195 pounds.

    Branch, 27 and a second rounder in ’02, had 78 catches for 998 yards and five touchdowns last year. He is 5-9, 190 pounds.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  4. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    Stallworth is better than Branch in a vacuum. What kept the price down is that he seems to miss 3-6 games a year hurt, and he's supposedly developed an ego problem over the last year.

    Branch seems to miss 3-6 games a year hurt (last year being the exception), and he's developed an ego problem over the last few months.

    Seems like a pretty good comparison.
  5. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Teams routinely use a 1st round pick to draft a colleg WR that they believe may develop into a #1 NFL WR.

    IF The Twig is a Top 10 #1 WR, like the money he is requesting for his services, then why wouldn't a team give a 1st round pick for a young, NFL proven WR?

    That conundrum is what this is all about.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  6. smg93

    smg93 Rookie

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    It makes a trade for him that much tougher. I don't think the Pats will accept anything less than a 2nd rounder if that. Stallworth's deal not only takes away one suitor, but lowers his marketability to other suitors in my opinion.
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Felger's arguement was stupid as the Saints wanted to get rid of him - he should look to Lelie who got a #3 and #4 or Javon Walker who got a #2, Walker is very good but was coming off ACL surgery.
  8. deeds

    deeds Rookie

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    Just my opinion but, I think it helps set his value... You can forget about a 1st round pick maybe a 2nd and conditional compensation (maybe a later round pick based on performance)

    The Eagles basically gave up a mid-to-late 3rd or 4th and the equivilent of Monty Beisel for Stallworth. Nowhere near the two 1st round picks rumored!
  9. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It doesn't, the Patriots don't have to trade him and don't have to next year either if they Franchise him. They Patriots will set his value, not the Saints.
  10. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    Amen. Just look at Clayton's article on ESPN.com. Stallworth's buddy Joe Horn talks about how Stallworth's professionalism isn't anywhere near what it should be and how the Saints' staff wanted to get rid of him. Doesn't sound like an apples to apples comparison at all. You really have to wonder how much Felger follows the NFL.
  11. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    How can Felger make that argument when he criticizes the Patriots for not paying him enough?

    How much does Stallworth make?
  12. Johnny Z

    Johnny Z Rookie

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    Anybody who thinks Stallworth is better than Branch is a blithering idiot.

    I doubt the Patriots can get a 1st-round draft choice because the NFL severely discounts short WRs. It's a prejudice that exists.
  13. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    Stallworth is absolutely better by any objective measure out there. Swap them for each other in their offenses. Stallworth has put up better numbers as a #2 receiver from the most inaccurate QB in the league than Branch has as the main target of the most accurate QB in the league. It's really not even that close a call. IMO, Branch could be best described as a poor man's Stallworth.
  14. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    It's much easier to make a living as a #2 than a #1. That's the problem right there. #1s get doubled.
  15. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    Understood. But that's why a WR is considered a #1. He can deal with the double team. The #1 WR should still put up better numbers than the #2 WR. Being double-teamed is not an excuse.
  16. Johnny Z

    Johnny Z Rookie

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    Stallworth is not even close to Deion Branch.

    That's just laughable.
  17. zippo59

    zippo59 Rookie

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    What gave Branch the edge was his perceived selflessness, devotion to the sport and team, and status as a huge team player. He has disproven all of this through his recent actions so I think it's pretty much a toss up.

    Branch does have the great postseason performances but Stallworth has never gotten to the postseason so we don't know what he would do once he gets there. The difference between them is not as big as you think.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  18. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    I totally agree. It seems that Stalworth's size and the fact that he was picked in the first round are the largest reasons for choice. If that is the case, than Charles Rogers must be better too!
  19. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    And the fact that Branch plays for the Patriots is the largest reason for the other opinion. If that's the case, Bam Childress must be better too!
  20. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    It's not laughable to anybody except a Pats homer.

    If Stallworth had been here catching passes from Brady the past three seasons, he'd be our favorite receiver in the NFL. And probably a pro-bowler.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  21. zippo59

    zippo59 Rookie

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    No, it's the fact that he has put up comparable numbers to Branch.
  22. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    I don't know if you are familiar with a site called Footballoutsiders.com, but their game charting says there is a large gap between Branch and Stalworth.

    Here are the WR rankings for

    2005
    2004
    2003

    I will point out a few highlights if some of this doesn't make sense.

    * In the three years listed Stalworth never caught more than 55% of catchable passes, with his worst year at 45%. Branch by comparison was at 55% at his worst year and 69% and 63% in the other two. Over 60% is the mark of a good receiver.

    * The rankings are in DPAR, which is their way of saying how effective was this receiver per play times the number of plays. A great receiver who missed most of the year would grade out below a good receiver who played the whole season by this metric. The have another column called DVOA, this is just the per play metric, so it says how valuable someone was while they were on the field. According to DVOA, if you grade out at 0, it means that you are an average receiver. Due to the fact that both receivers have mssed games, I will just look at DVOA.

    Stalworth
    2003 1.4
    2004 (-)1
    2005 3.7

    Branch
    2003 23.3
    2004 36.2
    2005 19.5

    So, Stalworth has been essentially a league average receiver over the past three years. Branch has been near the top 15 in DVOA for starting WRs. You will see a 65 on DVOA for guys that only get into 25-30 plays over the course of the season, but typically the top starter will be around 40.

    Branch is much, much better than Stalworth. The comparison is silly, really.

    BTW, I don't always agree with the opinions of footballoutsiders. For instance, they just had an article listing NEs coaching staff as the 8th best in the league, falling behind such powerhouse staffs of Cincy and Indy. That said, their stats are usually quite accurate.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  23. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    I'm a big fan of footballoutsiders. And a believer.

    However, what their statistics mean is that Deion Branch, with Tom Brady throwing to him, with the New England offensive line and the New England Defense, is much better than Donte Stallworth, with Aaron Brooks throwing to him, with the New Orleans offensive line and New Orleans defense.

    I don't think anybody would disagree with that.
  24. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Stallworth is making $1.9M in the 5th year of his rookie contract. He was not holding out but rather butting heads with a new HC looking to change an existing culture - same reason we were able to swap Bethel for Sullivan.

    This trade actually underscores the reality that Deion isn't worth a 1st but he is also not worth a Reggie Wayne contract. Which is exactly the point the Patriots are hoping to drive home. The Eagles pulled the trigger on Stallworth because they need a # 1 WR but they too are not willing to over pay for one. Getting a new deal to play is apparently not a condition for Stallworth. So if the Eagles like what they see from him they can plan to negotiate an extension down the road. And it likely won't be for Reggie Wayne money from the fiscally conservative Eagles unless he and Donovan are hooking up for a 1200+ yard double digit TD season.

    Stallworth may not be as good as Deion, but size does matter in the NFL, as does durability and price/value and as does putting up stats - particularly on a bad team with JAG QB's. The perception exists that while Deion is talented he also actually benefits from as opposed to being hindered by playing in this system that spreads the ball around because he is not the prototypical #1 and he struggles against double teams. And Brady's ability to find others when he is unable to get open actually helps get him open for a QB who will then find him when he is. Not many NFL teams have a QB they believe can make his WR's, and if they did they would be foolish to overpay for the WR position.

    And while the alternate prototype small #1 guys like Smith and Moss appear at times to buck that trend, they also have out performed Deion while dealing with their own durability issues and have either signed incremental contracts along the road (Smith in '04) or been involved in trades which led to extensions. Moss was due to be paid $540K on his rookie deal when he was traded to Washington last spring and held out briefly on Rosenhaus' advice before signing an extension that will pay him $26M between 2005-2009.

    The Patriots tried to reward Deion incrementally in 2005 and he wanted no part of it. They offered him Moss money this season and he didn't even bother to counter it. If he's worth Wayne money because he's really one of the top 5 WR in the league, then he is certainly worth a 1st round draft choice in a exchange for the prviledge of paying it to him. The Pat's think he's not, and that is what they did this to prove to him.

    If a team does come along who believes we are mistaken, it won't be the first time. That one believes that that is. Buffalo (twice), Tennessee, NO, Detroit, Washington have all paid a premium for talent they believed this franchise undervalued. Jonathan Kraft will point out that thus far it hasn't helped any of them and may in fact have hurt them in the long run. That is what this team will not do, hurt itself in the long run for fear of the impact in the short run.
  25. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    Yes, there are some other factors than just the "pure worth" of the receiver. But, if Stalworth's situation was that inhibitive, than how come Joe Horn was so good in 2003/2004?

    Much of the blame for Stalworth's three mediocre seasons is his, IMHO.
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2006
  26. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Precisely the points I attempted to make but said better above. The Pats called Deion & his agen'ts bluff. "You say you're a Top 5, then other teams will pay a Top 5 price for you." My bet here is that the foolish GMs may sit this one out, partially for reasons you cited about Branch's missed games & the Pats system. Is The Twig a TOP FIVE WR in anyone's system? Hell no.

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