p8ryts, I have to agree with you. I know I sound like a homer saying it but...
1) There's an outside chance Grammatica is his old self, which would take some pressure off Gostkowski. But the rook has a strong enough leg to instantly improve the defense, by lengthening the field (longer kickoffs = fewer scores.) In terms of accuracy, we know Adam can't be "iced." Maybe Ghost can, maybe not. But mechanically speaking, he can punch in the 50 yarders routinely - could Adam? Sure, we don't know as much about clutch, bad weather kicks, but I don't see much of a dropoff otherwise. (And let's be real... Adam was dropping off too last year. The result of losing his religion after the franchise tags? Maybe. The result of age? Also maybe.) So, we're in a world where if you called Adam's performance of 2005 a B, we could go anywhere from B- to A. There's upside as well as risk.
2) Willie Mac - sad to see him go. A definite loss, a definite dropoff somewhere in the LB corps (minimize it by moving Vrabes back outside with Colvin? Still have the ILB issue.) Somewhere in there, a new guy has to work into a pretty complex scheme, or an almost-new guy if its Beisel or TBC.
3) Givens - loved him, especially at playoff time. We've got a second rounder who any other year is a first rounder coming in, along with Reche Caldwell, who should be turning the corner to Givens-level production this year. I don't honestly think we drop off from last year.
4) Who do we get back/add?
a) sometime in the season, maybe game 8 or so, we get back Rodney ("and Hell is coming with him," as I've seen it said.)
b) about a full starting secondary, in addition to Rodney.
c) we get the playing time bump all along the secondary and the O-line (not to mention in the linebacking corps.) Everybody who got experience last season in the "off" year should be better this year.
d) Geno - what to make of his Rodneyless confusion at times last year? I would say a maturing process. I think he's a great young talent that ends up in some pro bowls.
e) Matt Light, either right away or a few games into the season (probably the former.)
f) A healthy Dillon, a healthy Faulk, and - as a backup plan and to spell the usual suspects - one Laurence Moroney. Gee, I wonder how last season would have looked with a running game teams needed to respect? Combine these factors with a "gelled" offensive line, with the exception of Light's return at LT, which can only be a bonus, and I think you're looking at a mo' betta squad, stem to stern.
5) What has to happen for the Pats to drop? The Bills, Phins, or Jets have to make a quantum leap forward. It's all very nice that the Jets now have some guys along the trenches, but please. They are not a playoff team. The Phins are the darlings of the offseason media, but they're looking at possibly starting Joey Harrington - unless of course Daunte Culpepper is ready to go in week one (in which case we get to see him reprise his role in The Young and the Mossless.) Phins fans thinking that adding Daunte immediately makes Chris Chambers into Randy Moss, need to consider the alternative, that removing the Moss hookup makes Culpepper into Jay Fiedler or AJ Feeley. The best weapon they have is headed to Toronto. (But I have to say I need to catch some Argonauts games this summer. As I understand it, former deadheads will be following the Argonauts to away games, trading "play lists" in the parking lot after the game, and camping out in smoke filled microbuses. Rumors that the Argos have replaced their marching band with a drum circle are thus far unsubstantiated...)
Back to the point - the Pats head into 06 stronger than they were in 05. This is often (though not always) the case for the Pats, since they tend to amass injuries each season. Whether they are super bowl bound again depends on their health.
But the odd man out in the playoffs? Rumors of the Pats' demise have been somewhat exaggerated.
PFnV
