An odd non-correlation

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

There are some fans who pre-season were quite optimistic pre-season about the NEP upcoming season and others more pessimistic. This is, of course, normal that folks would disagree.

Likewise at this point of the season there are some fans quite happy with the Patriots 6-2 record, the performance of most of the players, and the personnel moves of Bill Belichick. There are of course other disappointed with various aspects. This too is quite normal and to be expected.

But here is the odd part.

A significant portion, actually the majority of folks, disappointed with out 6-2 start, had a pre-season expectation that we would be 5-3 or worse at the halfway point. Logic would suggest otherwise. If you expected us to be at best case 5-3, you ought be thrilled with 6-2.

Likewise, those who expected us to have a 14-2 or better season, seem pretty content with the 6-2 record.

While there are exceptions to this. Some posters expected the team to go 15-1 and are disappointed and even more who thought this was a 10-6 team who are happy with the results so far. It seems to be they are in the minority. With the majority either expecting good results and are happy with the results or where expecting the team to miss the playoffs, yet gripe about us having two losses.

This leads me to believe that ones opinion of the team the trade of Moss, the cutting of Ingram, the lose to the Browns says absolutely nothing about the team but everything about the poster. There are some posters who are happy people. And there are others who enjoy waling in misery.

 

[emoney_33]

That's a really long way of saying "this board has homers and chicken littles".

 

[Synovia]

There are some fans who pre-season were quite optimistic pre-season about the NEP upcoming season and others more pessimistic. This is, of course, normal that folks would disagree.

Likewise at this point of the season there are some fans quite happy with the Patriots 6-2 record, the performance of most of the players, and the personnel moves of Bill Belichick. There are of course other disappointed with various aspects. This too is quite normal and to be expected.

But here is the odd part.

A significant portion, actually the majority of folks, disappointed with out 6-2 start, had a pre-season expectation that we would be 5-3 or worse at the halfway point. Logic would suggest otherwise. If you expected us to be at best case 5-3, you ought be thrilled with 6-2.

Likewise, those who expected us to have a 14-2 or better season, seem pretty content with the 6-2 record.

While there are exceptions to this. Some posters expected the team to go 15-1 and are disappointed and even more who thought this was a 10-6 team who are happy with the results so far. It seems to be they are in the minority. With the majority either expecting good results and are happy with the results or where expecting the team to miss the playoffs, yet gripe about us having two losses.

This leads me to believe that ones opinion of the team the trade of Moss, the cutting of Ingram, the lose to the Browns says absolutely nothing about the team but everything about the poster. There are some posters who are happy people. And there are others who enjoy waling in misery.

Could you point out how you came to the conclusion that these are the same folks?

Or are you just making stuff up?

 

[jmt57]

I think much of it has to do with short memories. The most recent event is most vivid, and all memories prior to that are just blended together.

One example would be the games against the Chargers and the Ravens. The Patriots won both games by identical 23-20 scores. With the Chargers game being played away and the Ravens game at home, you could make a case for that the SD game was less likely to be won by the Pats.

But fans were for the most part upset with the win at San Diego but happy with the win over Baltimore. To me a big reason was the finish of both games - the 4th quarter and OT - as being the most recent memory at that point in time for fans. The Pats were outscored 17-0 at the end of the Chargers game and that's what they remembered the most; the Pats outscored Baltimore 13-0 down the stretch and that's what people remembered most about that game.

To put it another way, what would the level of optimism be right now if the Pats lost their first two games but then won their last six? What would the level of pessimism be if they started out 6-0 but now just lost back to back games? In both cases the team's record would be the same as it is now, but the mood of the fans would be dramatically different in each scenario.

Many, if not most people overreact. The chicken littles will overreact to a loss. The homers will overreact to a couple of thee-point wins. It is what it is; I don't see it changing anytime soon.

 

[rojo8401]

Pretty good discussion here.

Can I throw in what a person does as a profession to the mix?

For me, I am a perfectionist both by nature and professionally since I am a designer working in the corporate world. There is no room for flaws or imperfections. One little minute detail is off and my boss lets me know and I fix it. There is no such thing as "good enough".

So when I watched the San Diego game, even though we won, I felt we were very lucky to do so and it wasn't a very good piece of work. It was more due to San Diego's extremely bone-headed mistakes that we won in my mind. So I came away dissatisfied when I should have been simply happy at the win.

Others are just happy that we won and don't think about the stupid little details. That's the right way to go I think.

I wish I could just be happy and not worry about stupid stuff that doesn't matter long term.

Or as my old sergeant used to say "don't sweat the petty things, pet the sweaty things". Sage advice indeed.

 

[aluminum seats]

ehhhh....I think a lot of the charges of "chicken littles" is overstated, with the exception of those abysmal game threads. Considering the thousands of threads & posts here, I'd say the vast majority are realistic/positive.

As to having a preseason thought of 5-3 and being disappointed now, that's easy. The Cleveland game was a disappointment (although not devastating.) Expectations evolve. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[ATippett56]

There are some posters who are happy people. And there are others who enjoy waling in misery.

Looking more at the big picture, some of the posters on the PatsFans message board hope to see the New England Patriots defense improve and the New England Patriots offense gel (since the departure of Randy Moss) as the season progresses.

 

[spacecrime]

This leads me to believe that ones opinion of the team the trade of Moss, the cutting of Ingram, the lose to the Browns says absolutely nothing about the team but everything about the poster. There are some posters who are happy people. And there are others who enjoy waling in misery.

I hadn't thought about it that way, but now that you say it, it's pretty obvious.

I think Abe Linclon said pretty much the same thing ("People are just as happy as they make up their minds to be."), so you are in good company!

 

[Wolfpack]

While there are exceptions to this. Some posters expected the team to go 15-1 and are disappointed and even more who thought this was a 10-6 team who are happy with the results so far. It seems to be they are in the minority. With the majority either expecting good results and are happy with the results or where expecting the team to miss the playoffs, yet gripe about us having two losses.

For some people, you are only as good as your last game. People obsess over the latest ESPN/CBS/NBC/whatever power rankings, but I think power rankings are a joke because they put way too much emphasis on your most recent game.

At the beginning of the year, I predicted 11-12 wins. Call me crazy, but I am happy where we are right now and am not revising that prediction.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The problem is really have is that I really thought Moss was not even close to the same type of player he was in his glory years and has been reduced to nothing more than a decoy and a rare occasional long pass catch

Now I see Welker and Hernandez struggling since Moss has left and wonder if it was the right thing to do.

We will be better without Moss in 2011 without a doubt,I just wonder if losing the decoy is going to doom the offense to beyond predicability and if Welker's role as the best slot receiver in football is going to be severely damaged as it looks in the past 3 games.

Regarding the team's record,I am and am still thinking 10-6 at best for this season so a 6-2 start should be strong enough to have us go 4-4 the rest of the way and hit that expectation,I am satisfied with a 4-4 or better yet a 5-3mark the rest of the way which would put us on the fringe of the playoff picture.

The division IMO is for the Jets to lose,they have a much easier schedule the next month to secure the division by mid december and I think they sweep the Pats for the first time since 2002 (I think they swept in 02).

 

[mgteich]

I don't expect us to lose to the jets at home. We haven't lost to anyone at home yet and we haven't been swept by the jets since the 2000 season. Now is NOT the time to change this trend.

I agree with regard to the jets having an easier road to the playoffs.

.The division IMO is for the Jets to lose,they have a much easier schedule the next month to secure the division by mid december and I think they sweep the Pats for the first time since 2002 (I think they swept in 02).

 

[jmt57]

The division IMO is for the Jets to lose,they have a much easier schedule the next month to secure the division by mid december and I think they sweep the Pats for the first time since 2002 (I think they swept in 02).

It seems like I can't go more than a week or two without seeing somebody say that 'the Jets have an easy schedule' in comparison to the Pats; I didn't follow that reasoning earlier and I'm still not following it now.

Both teams have games at Pittsburgh, at Chicago, and home versus Miami; both teams also face Buffalo but the fact the Pats play there rather than at home should be of no consequence. In addition the two play each other - in Foxboro, a game where home field could make a big difference.

Both also play an AFCS team at home: the Jets versus Houston and the Pats versus Indianapolis. In past years I would say playing the Colts would be far more difficult, but in my opinion this year those two are about even.

That leaves the Jets at Cleveland and home versus Cincinnati while the Pats are at Detroit and home versus Green Bay. We just saw what the Browns are capable of doing and that game being in Cleveland makes it that much harder for the Jets. Detroit is now without their starting quarterback and playing the Packers at home rather than on the road improves the Pats chances a great deal. So to me, the two schedules are basically even.

As for limiting it to the next five games the Jets schedule does look somewhat favorable, but still not that big a difference in my opinion. The Jets do have three home games to two for the Pats and don't play Pittsburgh till after that stretch in week 15, on December 19th. But to believe the Jets will have the division wrapped up by mid December, what are you predicting - that they'll go 5-0 while the Pats go 2-3 over the next five weeks? The Pats have the same record as they do, and the Jets have had their own struggles the past several weeks. If you think the Jets are that good and the Pats are that bad then the schedule is irrelevant.

Way, way too early to throw in the towel and concede the division to them.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

It seems like I can't go more than a week or two without seeing somebody say that 'the Jets have an easy schedule' in comparison to the Pats; I didn't follow that reasoning earlier and I'm still not following it now.

Both teams have games at Pittsburgh, at Chicago, and home versus Miami; both teams also face Buffalo but the fact the Pats play there rather than at home should be of no consequence. In addition the two play each other - in Foxboro, a game where home field could make a big difference.

Both also play an AFCS team at home: the Jets versus Houston and the Pats versus Indianapolis. In past years I would say playing the Colts would be far more difficult, but in my opinion this year those two are about even.

That leaves the Jets at Cleveland and home versus Cincinnati while the Pats are at Detroit and home versus Green Bay. We just saw what the Browns are capable of doing and that game being in Cleveland makes it that much harder






for the Jets. Detroit is now without their starting quarterback and playing the Packers at home rather than on the road improves the Pats chances a great deal. So to me, the two schedules are basically even.

As for limiting it to the next five games the Jets schedule does look somewhat favorable, but still not that big a difference in my opinion. The Jets do have three home games to two for the Pats and don't play Pittsburgh till after that stretch in week 15, on December 19th. But to believe the Jets will have the division wrapped up by mid December, what are you predicting - that they'll go 5-0 while the Pats go 2-3 over the next five weeks? The Pats have the same record as they do, and the Jets have had their own struggles the past several weeks. If you think the Jets are that good and the Pats are that bad then the schedule is irrelevant.

Way, way too early to throw in the towel and concede the division to them.

I see the Jets winning their next 5 games then losing in Pittsburgh and the next week in Chicago IF the bears are alive for a playoff spot then they will be tough at home in the cold.

The Jets may sweep the Pats.....I predict a 12-4 finish for the Jets if they lose to Chicago or 13-3 if they don't lose there.

Good Defenses start rising to the top as the weather gets bad,I am not convinced the Pats defense will improve suddenly in a few weeks,it will take some time and I expect another 10-6 season here

Anything can happen in the playoffs but if the Pats are not a road team in the wild card round,(IF they make the playoffs), then I will be surprised

 

[jmt57]

I see the Jets winning their next 5 games then losing in Pittsburgh and the next week in Chicago IF the bears are alive for a playoff spot then they will be tough at home in the cold.

The Jets may sweep the Pats.....I predict a 12-4 finish for the Jets if they lose to Chicago or 13-3 if they don't lose there.

Good Defenses start rising to the top as the weather gets bad,I am not convinced the Pats defense will improve suddenly in a few weeks,it will take some time and I expect another 10-6 season here

Anything can happen in the playoffs but if the Pats are not a road team in the wild card round,(IF they make the playoffs), then I will be surprised

Then in that case the schedule is really immaterial; it's a moot point. You see the Jets as being far superior than the Pats and that is why you think they will finish first; it really has nothing to do with their having a 'much easier schedule'.

 

[apple strudel]

If you are not stoked about a 6-2 record you are completely and incurably insane.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Then in that case the schedule is really immaterial; it's a moot point. You see the Jets as far superior to the Pats and that is why you think they will finish first; it really has nothing to do with their having a 'much easier schedule'.

The pats record has impressed me but there were mistakes by opposing STs that the pats took advantage of and like good teams they used those mistakes to help in some of their wins.

If teams play near errorless ball against NE like Cleveland did they will more often than not stay in the games with the pats or win decisively like Cleveland did.

This team is very young on defense and with giving up a horrid 386.5 yards on average to opposing teams clearly means they need help by both the offense and STs to carry the load at many times in the games to keep the pats alive in the 4th quarters and it won't get easier as the playoffs near and the good teams lessen their mistakes from the early going and play better as December arrives.

I think the jets have the overall better equipment to win the division unless Rex messes things up or the jets defense encounters a sudden onslaught of injuries or Sanchez starts throwing picks all over the place.

I do feel the jets will only lose the division if they self destruct by doing stupid things.

The pats should be ready to take charge in the division again next year as these rookies get better but this year is a true learning experience for a good portion of this defense.

The one thing that really separates the jets from the pats is leadership on defense,the jets have guys like Revis,Taylor and Scott who are key leaders and motivators
...we have close to no one unless you consider Wilfork a leader.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Pleased with the 6-2 record? Of course.

Absoutley disgusted with that performance against Mangina? Yes.

 

[jmt57]

This leads me to believe that ones opinion of the team the trade of Moss, the cutting of Ingram, the lose to the Browns says absolutely nothing about the team but everything about the poster. There are some posters who are happy people. And there are others who enjoy waling in misery.

Armchair Quarterback started two threads at the same time; one asking for opinions on what player(s) have exceeded expectations and one on who was the biggest disappointment thus far.

The disappointment thread is going strong with 106 comments and 2,277 views at the moment.

The exceeded expectations thread is on the verge of falling off the first page any moment, with 14 comments and 323 views right now.


Perhaps that discrepancy is somewhat skewed because the most recent game was a loss, but it appears to me that far more people who comment here view their glass as half empty than there are those that see it as being half full.

 

[borg]

Pretty good discussion here.

Can I throw in what a person does as a profession to the mix?

For me, I am a perfectionist both by nature and professionally since I am a designer working in the corporate world. There is no room for flaws or imperfections. One little minute detail is off and my boss lets me know and I fix it. There is no such thing as "good enough".

So when I watched the San Diego game, even though we won, I felt we were very lucky to do so and it wasn't a very good piece of work. It was more due to San Diego's extremely bone-headed mistakes that we won in my mind. So I came away dissatisfied when I should have been simply happy at the win.

Others are just happy that we won and don't think about the stupid little details. That's the right way to go I think.

I wish I could just be happy and not worry about stupid stuff that doesn't matter long term.

Or as my old sergeant used to say "don't sweat the petty things, pet the sweaty things". Sage advice indeed.

I, on the other hand, am a slacker. The sun rises, the suns falls....and I don't care why. I am currently eating chocolate cake for breakfast and I wish someone would bring me something to drink because I am thirsty. On Sundays, I hope the TV is on the right channel or I won't be able to see the Pats. I really like the way the players run around. It is so different then other forms of entertainment. If I never had won Powerball, I would be screwed.