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An observation re: low draft picks

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by ctpatsfan77, Jan 3, 2011.

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  1. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In 2010, the Patriots entered the draft with seven picks in the last three rounds, four of them untradable comp picks.

    This year, the Pats have been trading away a lot of low-round picks (7 for Ojinnaka, 6 as part of the Maroney trade, undisclosed pick for Page, etc.).

    Coincidence, or plan?
  2. HobokenPatsFan

    HobokenPatsFan Rookie

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    excellent observation. in support of it being part of a plan, heading into FA, it doesn't appear that there are a lot of positions open on this roster for 2011.

    On the contrarian side of the argument, we know that BB views picks as commodities and that he likes to have as many at his disposal as possible to move up and down the board. Flexibility is critical to draft day success.

    I personally do not think it was part of any master plan to trade late round picks away knowing that the roster was pretty full for 2011 and that the decisions were based on team needs at the given time that these trades were consummated.
  3. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I think that the Pats are sick of seeing thier promising late round draft picks getting coached up during training camp and then scooped up off their practice squad to other teams active rosters.
  4. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Umm.. Which player did the Pats lose off their Practice squad??

    Welch and Larsen were both cut by the Pats and claimed off waivers. Beyond that, I don't recall the Pats losing anyone...
  5. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In a way, the Patriots lost Larsen from their practice squad before he was ever there.
  6. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Belichick doesn't take a dump, son, without a plan.

    This draft is setting up to be very top-heavy if a majority of the top juniors declare (the CBA may or may not be favorable in 2011 but it certainly won't be better in 2012). However the talent drop-off for day 3 is considerable. We are talking 2007 bad. Having 6 picks when the getting is good and hardly any when the pickin's are slim...sounds like a plan to me.

    If Light and Mankins get retained for 2011 (a distinct possibility) then this team will return essentially intact. This means that the top guys selected in April are displacing guys that helped get the best record in the league. I just don't think there will be much room at the inn for 3rd day guys and UDFAs.

    QB - Nope, can't see them dedicating a roster spot for 3 at this point
    RB - Yep, a likely target for a later round guy
    WR - Can't even get Price on the field now
    TE - No way
    OT - No need for a developmental guy. Go big or don't bother.
    OG - Ditto
    OC - Possible since the eventual Koppen replacement may not be on the roster now
    DE - No
    DT - No
    OLB - Possible but only if TBC and/or Ninkovich are moved out
    ILB - No
    CB - Possible if Wilhite is released, but would need to be a top ST guy
    S - Best candidates are already on the roster
    ST - No

    That looks to me like RB, OC, OLB and CB are the only 3rd-day/UDFA possibilities...and I would expect OLB and CB to be addressed before day 3. So a complementary RB (either a big guy or a track guy) and a Koppen protege are in order...and the Pats will have 2 or 3 picks to use, depending on the Page trade.
  7. borg

    borg Rookie

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    I like and agree with the "go big or don't bother" sentiment. I believe Kazcur and Neal won't be back, $6 mill that rarely saw the field in '10. So either they sign or franchise Mankins, or the Patriots need to do some guard shopping. Light should stay, so the Pats need to view the T position with eyes on '12. I would bet BB tries to move #32 or #33 into '12 with T in mind.
    On the QB front, Hoyer is only signed through '11, so BB may buy some QB insurance
  8. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    I'll have to respectfully disagree.
    Getting a true stud DE is a need.
    Getting another legit OLB is a possible need. And keeping Ninkovich doesn't exclude getting an upgrade.
    A RB to develop behind BJGE is a need. I'm not sure if Taylor or Morris are coming back and they are both old and injury prone.
    WR is not really a need however Branch and Edelman have shown themselves to be fragile so it might not be a bad idea to develop talent there if a good player drops to the mid rounds.

    Offensive line is a definite need. Light and Mankins coming back is not a lock by any means.
    Safety can be improved upon. I'm not buying the theory that Meriweather 'gets it' yet when he still takes bad angles that takes out his own man from the play.
    At cornerback you can never have enough talent. The NFL has become a pass first league. CBs can be fragile, and Butler is far from a certainty. Neither is Bodden guaranteed to come back 100% from his injury.

    There are still plenty of positions on the roster that can be either upgraded or a future player developed for depth. If the Pats have a monster 2011 draft similar to 2010 than the NFL better watch out, because we could be talking about a second Dynasty for the Pats then.
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    But, barring some bizarre change in thought process from the owners, Hoyer will be an RFA, not a UFA.
  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Metaphors is talking about where it would make sense to use Day 3 picks (hence "Go big or don't bother").
  11. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Note that all comments are based on a 53 man roster. A larger roster changes things.

    Wasn't talking about the whole draft. Just drafting for positions on day 3 or UDFA.

    For example, the Pats should get a stud DE on day 1, but that type of guy isn't going to be there in the later rounds. Why draft a guy late when you already have Deaderick, Pryor, Love, Richard and Weston on the roster.

    Again, a top OLB should be a day 1 priority. Add in Cunningham, Ninkovich and TBC and they have all they need. Fletcher can play outside and Moore has also proved competent. Don't think the roster can hold a developmental guy unless someone leaves.

    Agree. Should have a complementary skill set though. Getting a 5'10", 210, between-the-tackles guy seems like overkill.

    We go through this every year. People think you have have 8 or 9 WR on a 53 man roster. On this team, 3 WRs will get almost all the snaps in practice and games (Welker, Branch, Tate). #4 is a package guy (Edelperson) and #5 is a ST ace (Slater). #6 is a gameday-inactive developmental insurance policy (Price). There isn't a #7 role except roster filler. If you want a developmental backup, someone will need to go.

    I'm not sure you get a Light/Mankins replacement in the later rounds in this draft.

    Nice one play evaluation. If you are looking for bad angles, Sanders would have been cut last year.

    Which is why you address CB early. Anyone you draft day 3 will be farther from a certainty than Butler is.

    Anyone the Pats draft early will likely be upgrading someone at the top of the depth chart, not filling in at the bottom. The Pats are already loaded with developmental talent at a number of positions and it makes little sense to cut a known developmental project to add an unknown one.
  12. MaineMan

    MaineMan Rookie

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    @metaphors

    Between-the-tackles RBs like BGE take a lot of punishment. Always good to have duplicates/spares.

    A durable, true FB to replace Morris might be another late-round option.
  13. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    This is how I feel about so many positions on the roster.

    With the great progress made across the board on this team (McCourty at CB, Spikes at ILB, Cunnigham/Ninko at OLB, etc.), things that were glaring needs last year actually appear filled.

    Our goal in this draft is seeking upgrades, not filling holes.

    An enviable position in which to enter the draft.

    OLB & OL are the main spots I would target in terms of areas that could be upgraded.

    I suppose there are a couple long terms needs. Depending on what they think of Kaczur, OT is an eventual need, and Koppen's days are numbered.

    But other than that, we are looking good for the future in most positions. Even DL, which we thought would be a huge need, is shaping up. Brace looked better this year. G Warren proved to be a great vet signing we can hopefully retain. Most importantly - Ty Warren returns.
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2011
  14. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I specifically mentioned a "5'10", 210 between-the-tackles" guy. Lots of players take punishment but you can't have "duplicates" for everyone. Get a complementary skill set (like the FB you mentioned or a speed guy) and pick up your "duplicate" off waivers if needed. You can keep a Thomas Clayton type on the practice squad also. RBs are a fungible asset so it seems like a poor use of a draft pick or roster spot just to get the "next guy in".
  15. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I'm with you. The Pats spend a lot of assets filling the roster from the (relative) bottom and coaching them up. This is a great philosophy...but not for this year.
    Top-heavy draft + Multiple high value picks = Upgrade the top of the roster

    Move out GWarren with a top pick and keep Wright/Brace/Pryor in sub roles
    Move out TBC with a top pick and let Ninkovich/Fletcher thrive in sub roles
    Move out Wilhite with a top pick and let Butler/Arrington focus on sub/ST roles

    Still leaves 3 top 100 picks for the OL, RB or wherever...but those 1st 3 picks should be difference-makers that immediately boost the quality of the team. If they are just solid guys that fit the scheme and need some development to be effective (they already have plenty of those), the Pats will blow an amazing opportunity.
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