An Alternative Explanation for the AEI Report conclusions

[SlowGettingUp]

The fundamental conclusion of the new AEI Report is that the mysterious balls are those of the Colts - they were too high when measured.

See graphic here:

https://www.aei.org/multimedia/deflategate/

The report assumes this was because they were measured later than the Patriot's balls, and so had a chance to warm up some.

However, there is an alternative and complementary explanation, namely that the Colts' balls were colder than room temperature when first filled and measured. Unlike the Patriot balls, presumably the Colt's balls arrived by bus, likely in an unheated compartment, and might even have spent the previous night on the bus. Thus they could well have been colder than room temperature when measured and filled. That (in addition to the later measurement) could easily explain why they measured high at half time.

I sent an email to the report's author making just this point as soon as the report was published, but haven't heard back.

 

[RunAmok]

Except, I am sure that the balls were inside the stadium fro enough time to warm up. It's not like they were rushed from the bus to the officials room and immediately tested. It's an interesting notion and only adds to what a fustercluck this whole saga is.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Except, I am sure that the balls were inside the stadium fro enough time to warm up. It's not like they were rushed from the bus to the officials room and immediately tested. It's an interesting notion and only adds to what a fustercluck this whole saga is.

I recall some experiments suggesting that the balls are actually pretty slow to warm up - the leather acts as a very good insulator when dry. That's why a lot of experiments dunked them in cold water to speed up the process.

Note that a cold wet ball in a warm dry room will behave differently than a dry ball - it would end up colder because of evaporative cooling.

 

[Danger Zone]

I recall some experiments suggesting that the balls are actually pretty slow to warm up - the leather acts as a very good insulator when dry. That's why a lot of experiments dunked them in cold water to speed up the process.

The Patriot footballs were left out exposed to the rain.

The Colt's footballs were kept in garbage bags.

The Patriots dominated time of play in the 2nd quarter right up to the very end, roughly 5 minutes to 17 seconds.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

The Patriot footballs were left out exposed to the rain.

The Colt's footballs were kept in garbage bags.

The Patriots dominated time of play in the 2nd quarter right up to the very end, roughly 5 minutes to 17 seconds.

Ok so now we have three complementary plausible explanations for the differential:

1) Colts's ball was colder when first filled (this is the only one explaining why they would eventually test high)

2) Pats balls were wetter at half-time - that would tend to cool them relative to the Colts' balls once they were in a dry place

3) Pats balls were measured earlier than the Colt's balls at half-time (the AEI explanation).

(Thanks to Danger Zone for pointing out an earlier error of mine)

 

[convertedpatsfan]

WAKE UP YOU SHEEPLES! BEN VOLIN ALREADY PROVED THE KRAFTS ARE SPONSORING AEI!!!!!!111one

Wait, there's more than one Kraft in America.

Geez, you're kidding me. You're sure?

Hold on a sec guys...

Ben Volin @BenVolin
Unclear if Kraft Foundation is related to Robert Kraft and family. Trying to find out

 

[Jercules]

No one ever mentions the fact that all the Wells report conclusions (with it's multi-million dollar scientific analyses) are nonetheless based on Walt Anderson's hazy recollection of what 25 ball psis were to start the game.

The Pats said they like their balls at 12.5 psi, the Colts said 13, and Anderson says the initial pressures generally corresponded to those numbers (with which gauge? He says one, but Wells overrules him... yet beyond that, Anderson's recollection is taken as gospel).

Who knows if the Patriots were using a gauge that was 0.4 psi out (just like Anderson was), and were giving him balls that were already under-inflated to begin with?

Even so, saying balls were "roughly" 12.5 could mean anything from 12.2 to 12.8... yet based on a few ticks here or there, the Pats have been absolutely crucified.

 

[RunAmok]

There were at least 4 (6 if you count the gauge on the Colts sideline and the gauge they used after the game) that were used to measure balls for the game. And they were all of the cheap, crappy quality that I used for town soccer games. And this is what a multi-billion dollar business is willing to hang it's flagship franchise on.

 

[Gumby]

There were at least 4 (6 if you count the gauge on the Colts sideline and the gauge they used after the game) that were used to measure balls for the game. And they were all of the cheap, crappy quality that I used for town soccer games. And this is what a multi-billion dollar business is willing to hang it's flagship franchise on.

Slight tweak to help here:
"And this is what a multibillion dollar business is willing to hang its hat on to protect three idjut former jester/dolphag employees"

The important part of the report is that it distracts anyone from looking at NFL operations, not that it obeys the laws of physics, rules of ethics, or basic tenets of justice and fair play.

 

[Wax Frog]

Ben Volin @BenVolin
Unclear if Kraft Foundation is related to Robert Kraft and family. Trying to find out

C'mon, Benny, put your shoulder in it! You can do this!!!!

 

[BTTA]

C'mon, Benny, put your shoulder in it! You can do this!!!!

Really. He could have found out in the time it takes to tweet that. Attention whore.

 

[SacPete1]

What I was dumbfounded by more than anything was in Wells' post report conference call, when asked about the 2 gauges, his colleague responded that "which gauge was used is irrelevant" and that they used the drop in pressure of the Colts 4 balls as a basis for comparison and effectively made these measurements the baseline.
I'm certainly no scientist or statistician but upon reading about ideal gas law and the variables affecting pressure, Wells' conclusions about pressure drop are based on what appears to be a very questionable premise at best and more likely a flawed one (using the Colts pressure drop as the baseline). Given this, how could the group used by Wells not account for timing difference at halftime between the ball measurements? Wouldn't someone qualified in this area consider this variable?

The AEI report is very technical and I found myself having to go over sections multiple times which makes me curious how the appeal strategy will unfold. If something similar to the AEI report is used and presented to Goodell, surely Goodell would need to have this qualified by another "independent" group which would leave me skeptical since Goodell is leading the appeal hearing.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

While possible, this explanation of cold air inflation does not fit the methods used.

Namely,

At 2 hours and 15 minutes prior to kickoff, each team is required to deliver the prepared game balls to the referee.

There is no indication that he immediately tests them. It only takes 20-25 minutes for a football to mostly equilibrate to room temperature, so that is likey where they are during his pregame checks.

 

[Ring 6]

Except, I am sure that the balls were inside the stadium fro enough time to warm up. It's not like they were rushed from the bus to the officials room and immediately tested. It's an interesting notion and only adds to what a fustercluck this whole saga is.

While possible, this explanation of cold air inflation does not fit the methods used.

Namely,

At 2 hours and 15 minutes prior to kickoff, each team is required to deliver the prepared game balls to the referee.

There is no indication that he immediately tests them. It only takes 20-25 minutes for a football to mostly equilibrate to room temperature, so that is likey where they are during his pregame checks.

There is also no indication that he DIDNT immediately test them.
It would seem that since they are brought to him for the specific purpose of testing them, he would do so when they arrived, at least in some cases.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

There is also no indication that he DIDNT immediately test them.

yes, there is, assuming that the Patriots & Colts footballs were both delivered at about the same time, or even close to it. The Patriots footballs sat unchecked for 55 minutes, per the Wells report, on page 50:

Jastremski packed the game balls in one bag and the back-up balls in another, leaving them in the equipment room for McNally to bring to the Officials Locker Room, which he did around 2:50 p.m., as can be seen on security footage from the corridor outside the Officials Locker Room. After completion of his League-mandated drug test—the first thing he did upon arrival in the Officials Locker Room—Walt Anderson recalls noticing that the game and back-up balls for both the Patriots and the Colts had been delivered. Shortly thereafter, at approximately 3:45 p.m., Anderson, with the assistance of Greg Yette, began preparing the footballs for inspection.

Is it possible that the Colts balls were delivered while he was taking the drug test? It's possible, I guess.

edit:
"We were unable to locate clear footage of the Colts game balls being delivered to the Officials Locker Room, but understand that McNally may have brought them when he escorted Sean Sullivan to the locker room to prepare the Colts kicking balls shortly after the officials arrived at 3:20 p.m." - Wells report footnote 27, page 50

So that would have given them maybe 20 minutes to warm up, if "shortly after" means just a few minutes after.

 

[Ring 6]

yes, there is, assuming that the Patriots & Colts footballs were both delivered at about the same time, or even close to it. The Patriots footballs sat unchecked for 55 minutes, per the Wells report, on page 50:

Jastremski packed the game balls in one bag and the back-up balls in another, leaving them in the equipment room for McNally to bring to the Officials Locker Room, which he did around 2:50 p.m., as can be seen on security footage from the corridor outside the Officials Locker Room. After completion of his League-mandated drug test—the first thing he did upon arrival in the Officials Locker Room—Walt Anderson recalls noticing that the game and back-up balls for both the Patriots and the Colts had been delivered. Shortly thereafter, at approximately 3:45 p.m., Anderson, with the assistance of Greg Yette, began preparing the footballs for inspection.

Is it possible that the Colts balls were delivered while he was taking the drug test? It's possible, I guess.

edit:
"We were unable to locate clear footage of the Colts game balls being delivered to the Officials Locker Room, but understand that McNally may have brought them when he escorted Sean Sullivan to the locker room to prepare the Colts kicking balls shortly after the officials arrived at 3:20 p.m." - Wells report footnote 27, page 50

So that would have given them maybe 20 minutes to warm up, if "shortly after" means just a few minutes after.

Again, we don't know. There is an awful lot of emphasis and consequence from that assumption, on top of many other assumptions.
If there is a camera, how could they not know when the balls arrived. It seems like another case of the Wells report playing loose with facts that get in the way of the conclusion they were working to prove.

 

[BTTA]

There is also no indication that he DIDNT immediately test them.
It would seem that since they are brought to him for the specific purpose of testing them, he would do so when they arrived, at least in some cases.

And that probability of randomness becomes another salient point.

 

[DarrylS]

The whole thing is a f..ing scam, they made a conclusion and then made the science fit the conclusion.. no one from the league office has never answered why they did not test all of the Colts balls... if McNally could "fix" the 16 Pats balls in 1:40 minutes, how long would it take to check the rest of the Colts balls??

If this was so important to the "integrity" of the game and the NFL, why did they not finish the task??

Then there is the quite salient point that the psi of the balls were not recorded after they were checked by Anderson, but the Wells report went out of its way to praise Walt?? Give me a f..ing break. The whole thing looks and smells like the amateur hour.

 

[PatriotsReign]

The fundamental conclusion of the new AEI Report is that the mysterious balls are those of the Colts - they were too high when measured.

See graphic here:

https://www.aei.org/multimedia/deflategate/

The report assumes this was because they were measured later than the Patriot's balls, and so had a chance to warm up some.

However, there is an alternative and complementary explanation, namely that the Colts' balls were colder than room temperature when first filled and measured. Unlike the Patriot balls, presumably the Colt's balls arrived by bus, likely in an unheated compartment, and might even have spent the previous night on the bus. Thus they could well have been colder than room temperature when measured and filled. That (in addition to the later measurement) could easily explain why they measured high at half time.

I sent an email to the report's author making just this point as soon as the report was published, but haven't heard back.

I highly doubt any NFL would leave their balls on the bus over night. I think that would be cause for someone getting fired....they're just too important.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

So that would have given them maybe 20 minutes to warm up, if "shortly after" means just a few minutes after.

The way anything "warms up" is an exponential process - the speed of temperature change is proportional to the temperature differential. So after 20 minutes they would indeed have significantly warmed up (assuming they weren't all in a big bag), but they would absolutely not yet be at room temperature.