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Amusing thought for the Herald

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ctpatsfan77, Sep 21, 2007.

  1. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know if this is true, but it should be.

     
  2. sieglo

    sieglo In the Starting Line-Up

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    Those odds are horrible.
     
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    About 3,814,000 - 1 would be more realistic. What kind of moron would make the bet mentioned here ?
     
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Someone who has 10 (50, 100, etc.) bucks to throw away. :p
     
  5. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    Oh, come on. It was a joke, made by somebody mathematically ignorant. The odds are MUCH lower than that.

    Let's say the chance of the Pats scoring exactly 38 points in a given game is 10%. (That seems a little high). Let's say the chance of the opposition scoring exactly 14 points is also 10% (that seems about right, or a little low). Let's assume the two events are uncorrelated. Then the chance of an exact score of 38-14 would be 1%.

    Let's arbitrarily boost things, and assume that the chance is approximately 2%.

    Then the odds against 14 straight occurences are approximately 50^14:1, which is somewhat less than 9 * 25 * (10^20) : 1, which is less than 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000:1

    EDIT: By "less" I meant "less likely", as in "smaller probability".
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2007
  6. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    That's more like it, Fencer.

    I'll put a buck on that.:D
     
  7. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    I think you copied the wrong number. Those are the odds of a Herald football story actually being about football.

    *spygate, ambulance chasing,playing agent to contract seekers, sensationalgossip etc.*
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2007

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