Amusing thought for the Herald

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't know if this is true, but it should be.

That’s the real NFL history the Pats will make: Winning every game by a 38-14 score. It’s now two straight and counting.

. . .

But think what the odds of winning all 16 games, 38-14, would be. Vegas already has, and they put up the number - 3,814-1, of course. Put a C-note on that!

 

[sieglo]

Those odds are horrible.

 

[BelichickFan]

Those odds are horrible.

About 3,814,000 - 1 would be more realistic. What kind of moron would make the bet mentioned here ?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

About 3,814,000 - 1 would be more realistic. What kind of moron would make the bet mentioned here ?

Someone who has 10 (50, 100, etc.) bucks to throw away.

 

[Fencer]

Oh, come on. It was a joke, made by somebody mathematically ignorant. The odds are MUCH lower than that.

Let's say the chance of the Pats scoring exactly 38 points in a given game is 10%. (That seems a little high). Let's say the chance of the opposition scoring exactly 14 points is also 10% (that seems about right, or a little low). Let's assume the two events are uncorrelated. Then the chance of an exact score of 38-14 would be 1%.

Let's arbitrarily boost things, and assume that the chance is approximately 2%.

Then the odds against 14 straight occurences are approximately 50^14:1, which is somewhat less than 9 * 25 * (10^20) : 1, which is less than 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000:1

EDIT: By "less" I meant "less likely", as in "smaller probability".

 

[RayClay]

Oh, come on. It was a joke, made by somebody mathematically ignorant. The odds are MUCH lower than that.

Let's say the chance of the Pats scoring exactly 38 points in a given game is 10%. (That seems a little high). Let's say the chance of the opposition scoring exactly 14 points is also 10% (that seems about right, or a little low). Let's assume the two events are uncorrelated. Then the chance of an exact score of 38-14 would be 1%.

Let's arbitrarily boost things, and assume that the chance is approximately 2%.

Then the odds against 14 straight occurences are approximately 50^14:1, which is somewhat less than 9 * 25 * (10^20) : 1, which is less than 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000:1

That's more like it, Fencer.

I'll put a buck on that.

 

[RayClay]

I don't know if this is true, but it should be. (3,814-1)

I think you copied the wrong number. Those are the odds of a Herald football story actually being about football.

*spygate, ambulance chasing,playing agent to contract seekers, sensationalgossip etc.*