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America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Elections

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Real World, Aug 19, 2012.

  1. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Real candidates, with an informed populace, would actually be discussing stuff like this during an election season.



    America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Presidential Elections


    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2012 15:30 -0400


    In four months the debate over America's Fiscal cliff will come to a crescendo, and if Goldman is correct (and in this case it likely is), it will probably be resolved in some sort of compromise, but not before the market swoons in a replica of the August 2011 pre- and post-debt ceiling fiasco: after all politicians only act when they (and their more influential, read richer, voters and lobbyists) see one or two 0's in their 401(k)s get chopped off. But while the Fiscal cliff is unlikely to be a key point of contention far past December, another cliff is only starting to be appreciated, let alone priced in: America's Demographic cliff, which in a decade or two will put Japan's ongoing demographic crunch to shame, and with barely 2 US workers for every retired person in 2035, we can see why both presidential candidates are doing their darnedest to skirt around the key issue that is at stake not only now, be every day hence.

    Sadly, the market which due to central-planner meddling, has long lost its discounting capabilities, and is now merely a reactive mechanism, will ignore this biggest threat to the US financial system until it is far too late. After all it is the unsustainability of America's $100+ trillion in underfunded welfare liabilities that is the biggest danger to preserving the American way of life, and will be the sticking point in the presidential election in 80 days. However, don't expect either candidate to have a resolution to the demographic catastrophe into which America is headed for one simple reason. There is none.




    America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Presidential Elections | ZeroHedge


    Some statistics:

    - 13% of the entire US population – are 65 years or older and eligible to receive government entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security. At current levels, spending on these entitlements make up about 8.7% of GDP – about $1.3 trillion


    - In 1900, 4.1% of the US population was 65+. By 1950, this number had almost doubled to 8.1%. As the chart following the text shows, the Baby Boomers (now ages 48-66) represent the most significant population wave in US history. According to the CBO, the population aged 65 and over will increase by 87% over the next 25 years as Baby Boomers enter retirement, compared to an increase of only 12% in those aged 20-64.

    - This year, 13% of the US population is 65+ and entitlement spending accounts for 8.7% of GDP. And that number only includes SSI and Medicare, not Medicaid and future Obamacare subsidies which add to these outlays.

    - In 10 years (2022): 16.1% of the population will be 65+, entitlement spending estimated at 9.6% ($1.5 trillion, based on 2011 US GDP)

    - 2037 (25 years on): 20 % of the US population will be 65+, entitlement spending estimated at 12.2% of GDP ($2.0 trillion)
  2. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Illegal immigrants are the answer!

    Seriously though, the demographic cliff is not just here, and no matter what happens here, it will be difficult to put Japan to shame in this category. The thing is that population growth has slowed or reversed in almost every country in the world. The economic reality is one thing, but the social reality is yet another.

    We're just going to have to adjust how we think about the future. Most economic plans of the last 150 year presuppose continuous population growth, and that's just not the case. What does that mean? I'm not sure there's a good answer, but you're right on one thing. This is the kind of stuff I'd like to hear more about; instead we get tax returns, "niggerization", and birth certificates. Nothing like learning the fiddle.

    The other side is the social impact. Without a "youth bulge" in the demographic arc, it's been historically true that popular government change is rare. The USSR collapsed without a high percentage of youth, but that was mostly a top-down phenomenon. So, when the youth percentage drops, we're more or less stuck with what we have. Whether or not that's a good thing depends on how many more of our freedoms we're willing to piss away in the meantime.
  3. PatsFanInVa

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    A-yep. Although I'll mention to you (Nik) that we in the U.S. have a significant "youth bulge", and that the usual stats we cite are measuring the baby boom vs. Gen. X, to an extent (i.e., until the millennials are in their peak earning years their effect is diluted, whatever we say their effect is or will be,)

    However:

    1. 10,000 boomers are retiring a day and will for about 20 years (i.e., the "demographic cliff," and

    2. Unless recent blips continue in the data trend, we're living to 85 instead of 70.

    It will cost more, not less, for the elderly to live decent lives. Because they're elderly, they can't pay it all themselves.

    Medicare, Social Security, and traditional pensions, for many years, kept old age from being a predictor of poverty. Prior to those institutions, it was the best predictor of poverty you could find.

    We're looking at a couple of options: Admit that it costs a lot to get old, and consider it a legit phase of life to address... or go back to the days when old age meant poverty.

    There's no question about "unplugging grandma." What there is a question about is pricing her out of life.

    I don't think to be old should mean to be poor.

    PFnV
  4. PatriotsReign

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    I believe it is far more important to make sure we fund social security than our programs for the poor. That is mainly because old people have earned it and have paid into it!
  5. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    The simple, undisputed fact of the matter is that age 65 don't mean what it used to. We are living longer lives and staying healthy and active far past that age.

    The common sense solution is to raise the age for all those benefits. But whenever a strong, decisive leader like Paul Ryan comes along and proposes such a common sense solution, he gets nothing but hatred and venom from the other side - not to mention a deliberate distortion of what his plan will actually do in order to terrify today's seniors into voting a straight line democrat ticket.

    So, in essence, we're screwed.
  6. PatsFanInVa

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Fortunately it's not a Hobson's choice.

    Protect the middle class, and you prevent poverty (rather than attempt to mitigate its effects.)

    You still need to have programs for the poor, but the way I think about it is that you maintain the line in terms of poverty relief, and bolster the ways to prevent large chunks of the middle class from slipping into poverty, and you've dealt with the poverty rate.

    Mitigating the effects of the poverty -- and doing it in ways that encourage work etc. -- is important too.

    But it's nice to know that preventing poverty by preserving the middle class programs such as Medicare and Social Security also prevents big hits to programs for the poor like Medicaid.

    Ryan's not a bold leader. He's a ganef, as my Dad would have said it (a thief.) He's not even concerned that these programs get "fixed." He's concerned about transferring the tax burden of the rich and super rich to the poor and middle class. Feh.

    PFnV
  7. DarrylS

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    If you believe the premise of this article, you might think that the poor are our most valuable resource as their birth rates tend to be higher than those in the upper classes.

    The demographic is necessary...

    Interesting thought, for all you religious folks out there, the Bible has over 2,000 references of taking care of the poor and 0 references of taking care of the rich.. just saying.

    "If anyone has material possessions and sees his brother in need but has no pity on him, how can the love of God be in him? Dear children, let us not love with words or tongue but with actions and in truth - 1 John 3:17-18."
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2012
  8. PatsFanInVa

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Yeah, but the bible's only important insofar as it can define other religions as proper objects for holy war. Okay, it works for excoriating gays too, and sometimes pornography, sort of.

    But whatever it is, it's not some long-haired hippie peace freak crap where you put down the job creators and give free stuff to lazy poor people

    I'm sorry to go so light on these quotes... there are literally hundreds more, and I am simply tired ("ye of little faith...") If you fancy yourself a Jew or a Christian, but aren't concerned about the poor, I recommend you read these books we collectively call the TANAKH or the bible (if you keep the v.2.0 upgrade.)

    But before I leave you, here's the sum total of what the bible says about abortion:

    PFnV
  9. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    How many passages are there which say we should give obscene amounts of money to a corrupt, inefficient bureaucracy which serves only to enrichen the lives of the bloated government employees who are either unable or unwilling to find real jobs, while the people who these programs pretend to help actually, in fact, get a ridiculously small percentage of the money take in to the system? :confused:
  10. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #11 Jersey

    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Yeah, that's why traditional (run by the government) Medicare has an overhead of approximately 2 percent and the privately run Medicare plans (such as the Medicare Advantage plans) have an 11% overhead.

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...a-boxer-says-medicare-overhead-far-lower-pri/
  11. PatsFanInVa

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Profit-raking "job creators" aren't overhead by definition!!!! :rolleyes:

    Even if they cost twice as much as the comparable gubmit program, they're more efficient at making rich people richer, which is the whole point!

    Jeez, what are you Mao and Castro and Stalin and Pol Pot all rolled into one????

    (Not to mention Teddy Roosevelt...) ;)

    PFnV
  12. patsfan13

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Well RW, Ryan is attempting to address the Demographic problem with our Ponzi scheme social welfare programs.

    However even these baby steps freak out the welfare state drones as we see in the MSM and even on this thread.

    People think if the 'care' it will somehow change the numbers. Of course maintaining our present course will destroy the economy and middle class and create far more poverty than the acolytes of the welfare state ever imagined.
  13. DarrylS

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Zero, but that is not the point of my commentary.. the bible is very clear on what its followers should do.
  14. The Brandon Five

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    There are people living in real poverty in this world, it's true. They aren't in the United States of America.
  15. RI Patriots fan

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    That would be....none.

    Within the early church and very much within the tradition of the church, help to the poor was encouraged on a personal level or at the local church level.
  16. patsfan13

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio


    That is on a personal level not at the level of the state compelling compassion.

    Funny how libs who hate religion and tout the separation of church and state try to cite the bible incorrectly to support their policy positions.

    :singing:
  17. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    Then please tell us what precisely is the point of your commentary? Are you saying people should give to the poor? Or are you saying people should support confiscatory tax policies that purport to solve the problem of poverty when, in truth, those government policies do nothing but exacerbate that problem?
  18. Wolfpack

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    OK cool. So we agree that giving to charity is a completely personal choice that we all must make on our own. So you must certainly agree with me that the people using the "give to the poor" verses in the Bible to garner support for their liberal agenda are being pretty silly.
  19. RI Patriots fan

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    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio


    I just think they equate "giving to the poor" with socialism. I personally don't agree with using government in aiding the poor but it is well within christian teaching to do so.
  20. IcyPatriot

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    #87 Jersey

    Re: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Electio

    I need to buy more Mass Lottery $5 and $10 scratch tickets looking for the million. :bricks:

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