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Americans Prefer Democratic Policies

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Patters, Dec 26, 2009.

  1. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - CNN Poll: More Americans think Democratic policies better than Republican - Blogs from CNN.com

    A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that a bare majority of Americans, 51 percent, believe that the Democrats' policies are good for the country, with 46 percent saying that those policies would take the country in the wrong direction.

    By contrast, 53 percent of people questioned in the poll say that the GOP's polices would move the nation in the wrong direction, with 42 percent saying Republican policies are good for the country.

    "The numbers for both parties are virtually unchanged since late August, just before President Barack Obama's health care speech to Congress opened the latest round of debate on this divisive issue," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
  2. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    IOW they oversampled dems. Not suprising from CNN.
  3. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Interviews with 1,160 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans,

    ............Right Direction...............Wrong Direction................... NoOpinion

    ...............51% ..............................46% ................................3%

    Blacks........ 82%............................ 16% .................................3%

    Whites ........42%............................ 53%................................ 4%

    Why not a poll with sample equal to the racial diversity of the country?

    African-Americans make up 14% of our population.

    In this poll they represented 22.3% of the poll.
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2009
  4. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Your point shows you don't understand the fundamentals of polling. Oversampling doesn't mean they count up the responses and determine percentages. When tabulating results, pollsters apply some sort of weighting to adjust for oversampling. Oversampling is very common in poll taking, and is used to get a more accurate reading on a specific group, such as blacks.

    Despite my criticism of your point, patsfans13's point is even worse, since I see nothing to support his claim that the poll oversamples Democrats. Perhaps he'll show me a link.
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2009
  5. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    But your thread said "Americans Prefer Democratic Policies" ... it didn't say "blacks tip poll to democrats"

    It should say a slanted group of Americans prefer democratic policies.

    The majority of America is moderate right ... it's what it's.
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2009
  6. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Icy, you're not getting it. You don't understand what oversampling is and seem to believe that pollsters use childhood arithmetic to calculate their results. Let's try this:

    Pollster.com: Even Polls About Baseball...

    "Pollsters sometimes 'oversample' a survey sub-population in order to increase the reliability of the results for that group. More interviews means less potential random sampling error. Before tabulating the data for the full sample, however, they 'weight' back the oversample its correct proportion with the larger sample."
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  7. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I minored in math in college ... went as high as differential equations ... I get the math. Also took every probability and stats courses the college had to offer ... the poll is misleading and the thread is right up there with it.

    Many Americans are upset with the health care stuff.
    Many Americans are upset with the economy.

    But more Americans prefer democratic policies.

    I think even a 5th grader could sniff this one out.

    I think tomorrow I'll poll Arab-Americans and ask them if they prefer we attack Israel or Iran.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  8. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Sampling is something my company & I do all the time. Your explanation is a tad BS Patters....why didn't they "over-sample" republicans and then go back and adjust their numbers....Hmmm?:rolleyes:
  9. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Even the OPINIONS of black Americans is skewed due to their tendancy to blindly support this particular president. Blacks actually should have represented a smaller % of the sample than their % of the population.

    It should have been republicans and independents that were over-sampled.
  10. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The poll is not misleading. You chose to go to the source that used a technical word you don't understand. You obviously do not understand what oversampling is, but for some reason want to continue to argue the point. You have a better knowledge of math and maybe even statistics than I do, but that does not mean you know what oversampling is.

    I know what oversampling is because it's used in the social sciences a lot where ethnicity, race, etc. are important issues. If you do a poll of 1000 people and want info about Native Americans, your poll sample might include only 15 Native Americans. That is not enough of a sample size to get any real insight into Native Americans, so you oversample them in order to get more insight and accuracy of their views, but when you compile the poll you don't include the oversample. Why didn't they oversample Republicans (or Democrats). Probably because the sample size already included a statistically significant number of both groups.

    And why in the world would you reduce the number of blacks in the poll? What do you think, blacks should count as 3/5ths of person? Your point makes no sense. The fact that blacks support Obama in larger numbers (actually numbers similar to their support for Clinton) is irrelevant, and I'm rather shocked that you would actually state that poll numbers should be skewed to underrepresent the views of black Americans. Poll results should represent the actual percent of blacks, and there is nothing in the poll to indicate that's not the case. (All the oversampling ensures is that the poll results for black Americans are more accurate than the poll results for, e.g., Native Americans.)
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  11. PatsFanInVa

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    So what you're saying is they overrepresented African Americans, in a nutshell?

    :p

    Couldn't resist, Patters.... I get it.

    Icy, stop not getting it to be obtuse and read what he wrote. Jeez.

    No wonder someone one-starred all your responses, guys :rolleyes:
  12. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You try to get the 'sample' to reflect the demographics of the group being modeled. Many polls can push to get the desired results by skewing the sample, not rocket science. This is why polls differ when anticipating elections results, you have to make ASSUMPTIONS concerning the number of dems, pubbies, indies, racial groups and so on.


    One of the criticisms of the MSM is that they try to create news with their polls. Polls that ask the same question everyday for years and which have correct sampling methods tend to give better information..
  13. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Once again the blinders are on and tunnel vision ensues.. it is hard for you to believe but check out the Daily Drudge, who will link you to the gloom and doom poll du jour or take part in the latest poll by Joe Farah on Worldnet... then cruise on over to Townhall or Hotair who revel in any negative poll they can find.. there is quite a bit of hysteria and hyperbole on the right..

    The poll of the day in Worldnet, is...I love my country but fear my government Are Americans' right of free association in jeopardy?

    It is truly a very sad day when someone can say anything is the exclusive venue of the OP, all the while their own party is as guilty as the other.. in the world of someone, Coke or Pepsi????
  14. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Rookie

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    If you oversample everyone, you've in fact, oversampled no one.
  15. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Obviously pollsters can cheat, and recently someone here fell for a blatant example of push polling where Zogby tried to push its sample into specific beliefs about the length of Congressional bills:

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ongressional-bills-problem-all-americans.html

    Meanwhiile, pollsters do adhere to a set of professional rules and have an organization that mandates a degree of transparency (AAPOR). I learned this thanks to fivethirtyeight.com that thoroughly discredited the conservative polling firm Strategic Vision. There is a substantial body of evidence that SV simply made up numbers.

    FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: strategic vision

    If you have evidence that the poll in question is dishonest, by all means present it; otherwise it appears that you're points are just sour grapes.
  16. PatsFanInVa

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    This tracks pretty well w/the public's general preference for Democratic policies. It's the result of asking people to rank their impressions of the last 5 decades. Think of who had control of the government the last 10 years and the preceding decades. The Republicans have orchestrated a catastrophic decline in US fortunes; it's unlikely this only reflects "good old days" thinking.

    Current Decade Rates as Worst in 50 Years: Overview - Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

    Oh by the way, most (59%) say the 2010s will be better. The 32% who say otherwise look suspiciously similar in size to the batch who actually believe the republican talking points.

    PFnV
  17. JackBauer

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    For what it's worth, Patters is 100 percent correct in explaining why CNN oversampled black voters.
  18. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    :eat3: ....................... best line in the thread.

    BTW ... how about the polls in the Patriots forum in this site ... oversampled? :eat1:
  19. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    So if you explain something then it makes it valid?

    Sheesh ... no wonder why we keep getting all the TOTUS speeches on network TV.
  20. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    That is the eact kind of "formulating" that led to results that indicates the world is heating beyond anything we've ever seen and is going to explode in 10 years. :rolleyes:

    There is no need to oversample a 1000+ person poll.

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