Am I Too Confident?

[frankiesfly]

I pride myself on being (I think) a pretty objective fan. In this game, I do wish Rodney was playing--even though Sanders has improved, a healthy Harrison would be huge. The Colts obviously have 2 great wideouts, a very good tight end, and a super QB. Also, while our kicker has looked good, you'd have to choose the guy's who's been there so many times before.

But. I feel ENORMOUSLY confident the Patriots will win. I think playing on the road isn't really a negative at all, and the Pats offense has finally found a groove. I think the Pats will be able to run, and throw on the Colts' D. I love the fact that the Patriots are underdogs, with the vast majority of "experts" picking the Colts. When I look at the various possible outcomes here, I'm really hardpressed to find one where the Patriots lose. We'll score around thirty, and I think we'll throttle their running game again. I don't think Harrison & Wayne will get 250 yards receiving again, and I don't think we'll turn it over 5 times. I'm nervous the way you ALWAYS feel nervous before a big game, and special teams plays, deflected passes, fluke stuff, etc. can always come along. But I'm just confident here.........I know this is a Pats' message board, so it's a positive place, but honestly--am I being overconfident?

Im never to overconfident, im not what you would call a homer fan. I look at both teams, and not afraid to expose the Pats weaknessess. I think the Colts are going to be too concerned about the pats running, which is going to open up a huge passing game from the Pats. Gaffeney will be huge, along as Caldwell, I expect Tommy to throw over 40 times again this week, and have our defense step up with a huge TD as well. Think about it, the colts D really hasnt gotten better, they just have been playing weeker offenses in the last oppenents. What i am over confident about is that the Pats D will be huge, with 3 INTS.

 

[Ring 6]

And why is that you don't think that Harrison,Wayne,Moorehead,Clark, Utrect won't get 250 receiving? Did we pick up a corner this week?

I think we can and will win. I also think we will need more than 30.

Put that in the wayback machine and you echo what many people were saying before the 03 and 04 playoff games, when we need to score 4 and 15 to win.

 

[aluminum seats]

It's interesting to look at the play-by-play of the pats/colts game earlier this year. Look at the just the drive recap, with a couple of notes:

Pats INT (on a first down from Indy's 34, on the 10th play of the drive)

Indy TD (7-0)

Pats TD (7-7)

Indy TD (14-7)

Pats TD (14-14)

Indy FG (after a kickoff return to Pats 29) (17-14)

Pats INT (after driving to Indy 40)

HALFTIME (17-14)

Indy missed FG

Dillon Fumble on Pats 31

Indy Punt

Pats Punt (passed on 3 of 4 plays)

Indy TD (24-14)

Pats FG (after 3 straight incompletions, out of the shotgun, from the Indy 31) (24-17)

Indy fumble on kickoff (at Indy 43)

Pats missed FG (after Dillon for 9, Maroney for 4, and 3/4 passes)

Indy INT

Pats INT

Indy FG (27-17)

Pats FG (27-20)

Indy missed FG

Pats INT

Bottom line, the Pats D struggled against the pass, after Harrison went down in the first drive. Offensively, the Patriots clearly went away from the run when the game was still well within reach. Conversely, after the Colts scored the first 3 times they had the ball, only scored 10 points the rest of the way (granted, helped by missed FGs). But down 7 in the second half, both times after the Colts turned the ball over the Pats got pass happy, and that was ballgame.

Look at this again just focusing on the Pats' offense. Got the ball 11 times......result was 5 turnovers, 2 touchdowns, 2 field goals, one missed field goal, and a punt. Just one punt, and this was a team that hadn't begun to find any identity in the passing game, and really had no offensive flow. One punt.

 

[Ring 6]

When the Colts got the 2nd half KO, I said if they do not score a TD on this dirve, the Pats will win.
Before AV missed for the 2nd time, I said if he misses the Pats win.

I have been about 97% on these in game IF_____ THEN ________ predictions (mostly because the rely on the Pats being good in the clutch)

I expect a couple more of these to come up tomorrow, and I have enormous confidence the Pats will not let me down.

It was very unusual for them not to capitalize on those.

I also think that if we get to the point of having the lead and the ball (in the 2nd half) the game is over. I think if this game comes down to the Colt d stopping us, we win. I KNOW that if it comes down to there D stopping us TWO MORE TIMES in the second half than we stop them, we win.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I'm confident. I see these Colts as slightly better than the Jets.

Sure the receivers will get their yards but I think Addai and Rhodes will combine for under 100 yards rushing.

The Pats will exploit the Indy defense and I just see on both side of the ball the Pats are the more physical team and are gonna push Indy off the ball.

There has been alot of hype spin on this, but you have to figure the Pats are not going to commit 5 turnovers. They are gonna run the ball consistently and not just in the first half. The receivers are in tune with Brady. Special teams is not going to allow huge returns.

We might actually get breaks in this game.

And lastly Manning is psychologically scarred from BB and Brady.

 

[aluminum seats]

Good point on the 2nd half lead, Andy. It's funny, watching the nfl network right now with the 2004 championship game against the colts--started on with a long colts' drive and a pats pick in the end zone, then Brady throw a sure interception on the next drive that the colts' dropped.

If Brady doesn't repeat last week's game, or the earlier colts' game this year, Pats win.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

When the Colts got the 2nd half KO, I said if they do not score a TD on this dirve, the Pats will win.
Before AV missed for the 2nd time, I said if he misses the Pats win.

I have been about 97% on these in game IF_____ THEN ________ predictions (mostly because the rely on the Pats being good in the clutch)

I expect a couple more of these to come up tomorrow, and I have enormous confidence the Pats will not let me down.

It was very unusual for them not to capitalize on those.

I also think that if we get to the point of having the lead and the ball (in the 2nd half) the game is over. I think if this game comes down to the Colt d stopping us, we win. I KNOW that if it comes down to there D stopping us TWO MORE TIMES in the second half than we stop them, we win.

The Pats offense just couldn't do much in the second half. Too many unseized opportunities.

 

[aluminum seats]

Exactly--3 turnovers and a missed field goal in one half, pretty tough to mount a comeback.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm with you and AJ seats. This club and in particular the 2006 TEAM has provided many reasons to be confident, at least 14 of them, most often under trying circumstances.

 

[mgteich]

I see the colts as a little better than Baltimore.

I'm confident. I see these Colts as slightly better than the Jets.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I see the colts as a little better than Baltimore.



It would have been interesting to see the Jets face Baltimore head to head in the regular season. I think the Jets would have hung with them.

 

[onegameatatime]

I am not at all confident. I love this team, but I am very worried.

We have lost the last 2 games against them at home. We were blown out last year, and outplayed this year. Again, at home.

Indy will be cranking up the sound, giving the end rushers an extra fraction of a second. Indy D has looked good in this year's playoffs, but has not been that bad against the Pats overall. Even in the playoffs, the Pats have not had an easy time. In 2003, Manning had 4 ints (IIRC) and we scored 24 (2 points on a safety and only 1 TD) and in 2004, 20 points after having only a 6-3 lead at the half.

Pats run game has not looked great recently.

I will not be surprised if Pats win, but this will be touhg.

(And yes, I was pessimistic for the AFC playoff games in 2004 also.)

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I am not at all confident. I love this team, but I am very worried.

We have lost the last 2 games against them at home. We were blown out last year, and outplayed this year. Again, at home.

Indy will be cranking up the sound, giving the end rushers an extra fraction of a second. Indy D has looked good in this year's playoffs, but has not been that bad against the Pats overall. Even in the playoffs, the Pats have not had an easy time. In 2003, Manning had 4 ints (IIRC) and we scored 24 (2 points on a safety and only 1 TD) and in 2004, 20 points after having only a 6-3 lead at the half.

Pats run game has not looked great recently.

I will not be surprised if Pats win, but this will be touhg.

(And yes, I was pessimistic for the AFC playoff games in 2004 also.)

One, they went against SD, a top run defense in the league.

Two, throw last years game out. They had Duane Starkes, Chad Brown, and Monty Beisel(I think Brushi had just returned that game), plus they had no Seymour.

Last year's game can't be viewed as a true sampling.

Three, the pats played awful, the d-line was all over manning even when they were banged up, and sanders just became a starter full time. they lost only by 7 points. the pats will be in control of tomorrow's game

 

[onegameatatime]

Only 7 points, but the Pats seemed to be laboring the whole time, and TB was out of sync badly.

What gives me hope is that the secondary has had to get used to no-Rodney for much of the season, rather than just losing him now; TB getting used to the WRs; D-line is dominant; Manning getting some really big breaks on catches previously; BB is a god; TB is a god; and LoMo is well-rested.

 

[aluminum seats]

I really think it comes down to this--it's cliched, but true. If the Pats don't turn it over, and play at least their B+/A- game, they should win. By way of comparison, I would NOT have said that against San Diego, which is why it's still shocking they won that game.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I'm not confident for the same reasons as everyone else.

First is the Colts offense, and particularly 3d down conversions, where they were over 56 percent this year. (Nobody else was over 50 percent.) Inside the red zone, they are a league second best in conversions, at 60 percent. (I understand that the Chargers were first, but for the record, they scored 3 for 3, I believe in the last game. We can't count on 4 turnovers this game.)

You couple all that with the fact that we're horrible on kick off coverage (worst in the league on yardage allowed by a very wide margin), and I think you're creating a big pile of trouble.

We play bend-but-don't-break defense, and I think the Colts are the one team that can make that kind of defense break.

We simply cannot give up long returns and must cover kicks. And we have to stop this annoying trend where we let our opponent get to midfield on one or two plays and then decide to buck up on defense, because they will make us pay.

We're going to need a lot of points and we're going to need some points on defense to win this one, is my analysis.

Edit: Add to all that two factors that I think everyone is downplaying -- we're coming off a cross country trip and a bruising game and we have to adjust to a completely different style in just one week. Call me a bad fan or whatever, and keep this post so that I can have my nose rubbed in it if I'm wrong, but I think today is our come-uppance. 17-41 if I had to guess. For the record, though, I've never gone into a single patriots game in my life thinking we would win.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I'm not confident for the same reasons as everyone else.

First is the Colts offense, and particularly 3d down conversions, where they were over 56 percent this year. (Nobody else was over 50 percent.) Inside the red zone, they are a league second best in conversions, at 60 percent. (I understand that the Chargers were first, but for the record, they scored 3 for 3, I believe in the last game. We can't count on 4 turnovers this game.)

You couple all that with the fact that we're horrible on kick off coverage (worst in the league on yardage allowed by a very wide margin), and I think you're creating a big pile of trouble.

We play bend-but-don't-break defense, and I think the Colts are the one team that can make that kind of defense break.

We simply cannot give up long returns and must cover kicks. And we have to stop this annoying trend where we let our opponent get to midfield on one or two plays and then decide to buck up on defense, because they will make us pay.

We're going to need a lot of points and we're going to need some points on defense to win this one, is my analysis.

Remember with a banged up D-line the pats were all over manning back in november. Now they're healthy and like Jaworski said I don't think the cotls will be able to run the ball effectively and will become one dimensional. Asante is playing out of his mind and the secondary has gelled. Sanders has so much more experience.

Manning will fumble the ball at least once becuase of pressure form the defense.

Expect lots of Nickle coverage from the pats and jarvis could be huge once again.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Remember with a banged up D-line the pats were all over manning back in november. Now they're healthy and like Jaworski said I don't think the cotls will be able to run the ball effectively and will become one dimensional. Asante is playing out of his mind and the secondary has gelled. Sanders has so much more experience.

I hadn't heard Jaworski. He's the one guy I actually listen to of all the talking heads.

I still hate this game. Actually, I hate every game, though.

 

[NEPatriot]

I really think it comes down to this--it's cliched, but true. If the Pats don't turn it over, and play at least their B+/A- game, they should win. By way of comparison, I would NOT have said that against San Diego, which is why it's still shocking they won that game.

I agree with you. I would add one more thing. We can't give up the big plays. Don't turn the ball over and don't give up the big play. I'm not confident about a win, but I also feel better then I did last week.

 

[aluminum seats]

I'm not confident for the same reasons as everyone else.

First is the Colts offense, and particularly 3d down conversions, where they were over 56 percent this year. (Nobody else was over 50 percent.) Inside the red zone, they are a league second best in conversions, at 60 percent. (I understand that the Chargers were first, but for the record, they scored 3 for 3, I believe in the last game. We can't count on 4 turnovers this game.)

You couple all that with the fact that we're horrible on kick off coverage (worst in the league on yardage allowed by a very wide margin), and I think you're creating a big pile of trouble.

We play bend-but-don't-break defense, and I think the Colts are the one team that can make that kind of defense break.

We simply cannot give up long returns and must cover kicks. And we have to stop this annoying trend where we let our opponent get to midfield on one or two plays and then decide to buck up on defense, because they will make us pay.

We're going to need a lot of points and we're going to need some points on defense to win this one, is my analysis.

Edit: Add to all that two factors that I think everyone is downplaying -- we're coming off a cross country trip and a bruising game and we have to adjust to a completely different style in just one week. Call me a bad fan or whatever, and keep this post so that I can have my nose rubbed in it if I'm wrong, but I think today is our come-uppance. 17-41 if I had to guess. For the record, though, I've never gone into a single patriots game in my life thinking we would win.

Is that a typo or do you really think the Pats lose 41-17?