Aldon Smith - OLB - Missouri (HT: 6-5 - WT: 260)

[Sciz]

There were tons of reasons that Bill passed on Matthews that Smith doesn't have:
Lack of pass-rush moves
Lack of size (an inch shorter, 20 pounds lighter when drafted)
Known for free-lancing
Ever-present "how did he gain that much muscle that fast" concerns

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

What game(s) are you basing that on Box?

I watched him when he first came back from the injury and had that nice interception - I don't recall who they played. I caught part of another game and then there was the bowl game against Iowa. He just looks too raw, even allowing for being rusty coming off the injury. :confused2:

EDIT: FWIW, I liked the other rSo they had playing behind him more than I did Smith.

 

[reflexblue]

I've watched Smith three times last season i didn't see him do anything. i wasn't impressed at all.

 

[NePatriots]

I watched him when he first came back from the injury and had that nice interception - I don't recall who they played. I caught part of another game and then there was the bowl game against Iowa. He just looks too raw, even allowing for being rusty coming off the injury. :confused2:

I'll give you the Iowa game, but Iowa did that against a lot guys this year. Reiff (the LT) will be a 1st rounder next year or the year after.

The OU game he was noticeably hobbled from the broken leg.

Here a couple of videos of Smith in action.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'll give you the Iowa game, but Iowa did that against a lot guys this year. Reiff (the LT) will be a 1st rounder next year or the year after.

The OU game he was noticeably hobbled from the broken leg.

Here a couple of videos of Smith in action.

I try to watch a player in more than one game for that reason, and for that reason I prefer to not rely on YouTube. The kid has been talked up a lot over at Planet, yet when I turn on the TV I see a kid who should - IMO - have stayed another season. Now, let's put on our hoodies and try to get into the head of BB, if he's going to spend a first round pick on the kid, what is he looking for?

For starters:
production
work ethic
football IQ
athleticism
maturity

NFL Draft Scout's overview is where I start after watching the games:

In only two years on the field, Smith earned enough respect from Big 12 coaches to be named first-team all-conference despite playing only nine games because of a broken fibula. He gained that respect with production (48 tackles, 10 for loss, 5.5 sacks), but also his ability to come back from a slightly fractured right leg in only three weeks.

A consensus freshman All-American and the conference's Defensive Newcomer and Freshman of the Year (along with honorable mention All-Big 12 honors) in 2009, he had 64 tackles -- 19 for loss and 11.5 sacks, both of which ranked in the top 15 nationally. The year before, he proved to scouts he would eventually be a force, dominating the scout team and putting on muscle as a redshirt.

In addition to his exceptional athletic ability, Smith's toughness has impressed scouts. While still obviously less than 100 percent, he returned an interception 58 yards in a big win against Oklahoma and managed six tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in his final six games. He's still raw, but evaluators look at Smith as a potential John Abraham or Julian Peterson type of pass rusher with very good length to play in a 4-3 or 3-4 base scheme as he matures physically.

Production √
Work Ethic - seems like it's there.
Football IQ - "He's still raw ..."
Ahtleticism √
Maturity - "He's still raw ..."

Wearing my hoodie doesn't encourage me to think the kid's going to be a first round grade for NE. He may be better then a UDFA based on production numbers and potential, but I just don't see BB scoring this kid that high and if I was doing it off what I saw on TV ... :confused2:

 

[Off The Grid]

Well, if the entire purpose of these threads was to try to emulate What Bill Would Do...there would BE no purpose, would there?

 

[NePatriots]

Wearing my hoodie doesn't encourage me to think the kid's going to be a first round grade for NE. He may be better then a UDFA based on production numbers and potential, but I just don't see BB scoring this kid that high and if I was doing it off what I saw on TV ... :confused2:

Always love to read you analysis Box, but I have to disagree with you here.

I see a OLB prospect that fits Belichick's height/weight/length/speed requirements. Those guys just don't come around very often, especially ones that can actually play well in pads like Smith.

He sticks to assignments, has a great motor, and can flat out makes plays all over the field.

He might not end up being the guy in NE, but some team will be very happy with him within the next year or two.

 

[ZoisKing]

The IQ and maturity are big issues to BB. Therefore, I agree with Box on the assessment that Aldon isn't Pats material right now.

BB is going to look for team captains who are able to do well in an interview diagnosing plays and knowing not only their assignments, but others as well.

After listening to Aldon's interviews, I don't believe he's close to being that guy at this point in time.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Always love to read you analysis Box, but I have to disagree with you here.

I see a OLB prospect that fits Belichick's height/weight/length/speed requirements. Those guys just don't come around very often, especially ones that can actually play well in pads like Smith.

He sticks to assignments, has a great motor, and can flat out makes plays all over the field.

He might not end up being the guy in NE, but some team will be very happy with him within the next year or two.

Thankee kindly, your site and commentary is required reading too - I hope it goes well for the kid, wherever he winds up.

 

[NEPats1]

When you think of players on the Pats, one thing most of them have in common is versatility.

Check out these videos:

YouTube - Aldon Smith vs. Colorado ('09)

YouTube - Aldon Smith vs. Illinois


Aldon Smith is a very versatile player. They are lining him as a DT rushing the passer and DE. He's also got his hands on a few batted down passes.

IMO when you look at his total package and the Pats requirements in a OLB: he fits the frame, he can play the run, and the only left unanswered is can he drop back in coverage? But honestly that's an uncertainty with a lot of these guys when you're making projections. But I think he's athletic enough to stand up and rush in a 3-4.

I'm a big fan of him.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Reminds me of JPP from last year. He really started to come along for the Giants toward mid season and I see the same happening with Smith. It may take him a little longer but he has the tools and the work effort to make it happen.

 

[Water Boy]

Reminds me of JPP from last year. He really started to come along for the Giants toward mid season and I see the same happening with Smith. It may take him a little longer but he has the tools and the work effort to make it happen.

IIRC, JPP was more raw than Smith. IMO Smith already is displaying some pretty good technique.

 

[Off The Grid]

I see a OLB prospect that fits Belichick's height/weight/length/speed requirements. Those guys just don't come around very often, especially ones that can actually play well in pads like Smith.

He sticks to assignments, has a great motor, and can flat out makes plays all over the field.

He might not end up being the guy in NE, but some team will be very happy with him within the next year or two.

There it is.

If it's up to me, we draft THREE guys ~ in addition to the one we already have ~ of the 6.4/250-275 Pound And Athletic As Hell caliber, to rotate at both Flanker positions, bringing in all FOUR on Passing Downs, if we see fit...

But having put all possible candidates through the ringer a few times, I gotta say that, at this point, Aldon Smith is the ONLY guy who projects in the first 5 Rounds that I would like to see us actually pull the trigger on, with the possible but unlikely exception of Robert Quinn, he of the many asterisks and conditionals.

***

For my money, the Impact ~ the Return on Investment ~ of Grizzlies DECISIVELY outweighs that of Flankers...But with Aldon Smith being the one and only Top Shelf Flanker who is likely to justify his cost, in my view, and with Cameron Heyward, JJ Watt, Phil Taylor, and Kenrick Ellis all strong candidates to drop far later than Smith and still EXCEED their cost...my thinking is that it behooves us to jump all over Smithy at 17, or thereabouts...and then scoop up those other guys, later on: That's the Law of Supply + Demand.

***

One possible wrinkle on this ~ as first proposed by Nolan Nawrocki at PFW, and since championed by The Immortal Brother Mayo ~ is the possible conversion of none other than Cameron Jordan to HeffaLump: Jordan is currently listed at 6.4/285, so a reduction to 275 Pounds ~ the playing weight of none other than Willie Mac, if my information is correct ~ would seem to be a viable consideration. Whether or not he's athletic enough to take on the myriad responsibilities of the famous HeffaLump position of Belichickian Lore is a matter for FootBall minds far more astute than my own to decide.

***

And this actually pigpiles on the earlier proposal by the visionary and rather insane Drew BoilHeart of The Huddle, who earlier proposed a similar conversion for Adrian Clayborn.

 

[NEPats1]

Hey Off The Grid, what do you mean when you say "Grizzlies" and "Flankers"?

Thanks

 

[Off The Grid]

Hey Off The Grid, what do you mean when you say "Grizzlies" and "Flankers"?

Thanks

I have my particular vernacular for the Game...

Grizzlies ~ Front Line Men, either O Line or D Line
Flankers ~ A term I prefer 1,000,000,000 more than "Out Side Line Backer"
MidFielder ~ I like this only 1,000,000 more than "Middle Line Backer"

Tight End ~ "Tight End" has become a complex position: I only use that term, now, for the Alge Crumpler type: Mostly Blocking.
Wing Back ~ Rob Gronkowski type: Only spends part of his time as an actual Wing Back ~ off the line ~ but best describes his Hybrid role as Receiver, Blocker, and Motion Blocker.
Wing End ~ Aaron Hernandez type: Mostly Receiving.

Full Back ~ like "Tight End", this old term has narrowed, dramatically: Mostly blocking.

Swing Back ~ Basically, the traditional Full Back: a Full Service Full Back, like Cleveland's Peyton Hills.

I'm also toying with other terms, as the Game evolves...

***

Thanks for asking, Bro: Yes, I AM a mad man.

I object to weak terms like "Line Backer", "OutSide LineBacker", and, above all, "H Back", and I humbly seek to improve them, if only in my own correspondence.

 

[jays52]

Off The Grid rules.

 

[jays52]

I think that we need to have an assessment of the linebackers as they are presently constituted before we start wanting prospects. As it stands right now they are all set inside with the will and mike in addition to two good sub guys. At um, flanker, they have the sam in Cunningham and two decent enough sub guys in Nink and TBC. Moore is a nice hand in the dirt/Sam hybrid. What they are missing is the jack/joker/whatever you care to call it which is the weakside or right OLB. This is typically the best athlete on the defense in the 34, and is less about weight and stoutness and more about length and explosion. That being identified, it reduces the need for and probability of taking a Kerrigan or converting a more classic 43 end.

So in looking at that we're basically left with three high level choices that are fits. Smith, Quinn, and Houston all fit the mold that is required for the Jack. Length to take on tackles in slide protections and to clog passing lanes (a HIGHLY underrated attribute, btw, and one I feel more valuable than explosion and counter moves), the explosion to force deep steps from linemen, the agility to drive laterally against bubble screens and quick tosses, and the hips to settle and drive from zones. Obviously, higher level skills such as countermoves, pass coverages nuances such as hand pulls and invisible jersey pulls, awareness, and snap cadence identification matter as well but it's really hard to ID those accurately.

While all three players mentioned have holes in their game and relative fit, it basically comes down to Smith and Quinn on the explosion front, and Houston in the linebacker one. Smith and Quinn have highly limited tape, Houston's work ethic concerns frighten me but I generally like his game. I'll hold off judgement until I see some linebacker drills to evaluate hips and footwork, but right now it's a total crapshoot.

 

[TriplecHamp]

IIRC, JPP was more raw than Smith. IMO Smith already is displaying some pretty good technique.

I think JPP had only played a year or two at USF and yes he was raw but he was an athletic physical specimen like Aldon.

 

[Off The Grid]

Off The Grid rules.

Right back AT you, Brother Jay!!

 

[Off The Grid]

I think that we need to have an assessment of the linebackers as they are presently constituted before we start wanting prospects. As it stands right now they are all set inside with the will and mike in addition to two good sub guys. At um, flanker, they have the sam in Cunningham and two decent enough sub guys in Nink and TBC. Moore is a nice hand in the dirt/Sam hybrid. What they are missing is the jack/joker/whatever you care to call it which is the weakside or right OLB. This is typically the best athlete on the defense in the 34, and is less about weight and stoutness and more about length and explosion. That being identified, it reduces the need for and probability of taking a Kerrigan or converting a more classic 43 end.

So in looking at that we're basically left with three high level choices that are fits. Smith, Quinn, and Houston all fit the mold that is required for the Jack. Length to take on tackles in slide protections and to clog passing lanes (a HIGHLY underrated attribute, btw, and one I feel more valuable than explosion and counter moves), the explosion to force deep steps from linemen, the agility to drive laterally against bubble screens and quick tosses, and the hips to settle and drive from zones. Obviously, higher level skills such as countermoves, pass coverages nuances such as hand pulls and invisible jersey pulls, awareness, and snap cadence identification matter as well but it's really hard to ID those accurately.

While all three players mentioned have holes in their game and relative fit, it basically comes down to Smith and Quinn on the explosion front, and Houston in the linebacker one. Smith and Quinn have highly limited tape, Houston's work ethic concerns frighten me but I generally like his game. I'll hold off judgement until I see some linebacker drills to evaluate hips and footwork, but right now it's a total crapshoot.

Terrific analysis, sir.