Aikman Ratings... the Pats are #1..

[DarrylS]

From NFL.COM, Aikman has an interesting ratings system and the Pats are #1 combined. A different way of looking at a ratings system that objectively combines the effectiveness on both sides of the ball.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9851329

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 13
Aikman NFL
Rank Record Team Combined Off Def Off Def Combined
1 9-3 New England 169.4 82.4 87.0 6 9 15
2 10-2 San Diego 169.0 95.0 74.0 5 8 13
3 8-4 Dallas 168.5 88.2 80.3 4 7 11
4 7-5 Jacksonville 168.0 80.3 87.7 15 4 19
5 10-2 Chicago 166.2 73.0 93.2 20 2 22
6 9-3 Baltimore 166.0 72.3 93.7 23 1 24
7 10-2 Indianapolis 161.7 93.1 68.6 3 16 19
8 7-5 Denver 159.0 77.7 81.3 22 13 35
9 7-5 Cincinnati 155.6 82.7 72.9 8 31 39
10 7-5 Kansas City 155.2 82.7 72.5 13 14 27

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Formula
The Aikman Efficiency Ratings measure offensive and defensive performance using a combination of seven key statistics identified by Troy, and then measured against league norms (and extremes) established over the last 10 years. An offense or defense performing exactly at league norms in all categories will achieve a score of 75. The better the offense or defense, the higher the score on either scale.

It will take a truly exceptional unit to score more than 90 during an entire season on either the offensive or defensive scale. Higher scores are possible in individual games.

In 2005, AER scores ranged on offense from 92.6 (Seattle) to 60.9 (San Francisco) and on defense from 89.3 (Chicago) to 61.1 (Houston). The seven categories measured are:

Adjusted Points (20%) -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties
Turnovers (20%)
Red-Zone Efficiency (20%) -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points (see below)
Yards Per Play -- divided into Yards Per Rush (10% of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10% of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First-Down Achievement -- divided into Total First Downs (10% of total) and Third-Down Conversion Percentage (10% of total)
Percentage of Possible Points in the Red Zone is figured by taking the number of Red-Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).

 

[mgcolby]

His system is among the best. The NFL way of rating a defense and offense is dumb. Total yards doesn't mean a whole lot as a whole. When you break it down to in terms of Rush defense or Rushing offense it becomes a significant factor in determining which team is better defending/rushing the ball, but that is as far as I would go. Aikman does a good job of mixing in several stats and determing which teams are performing well and the Pats have been there all season.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Legends in their own mind (only) here will still criticize our offense as inept.

I'm not saying that our O is operating at peak efficience or even as well as it should be. There's room and need for improvement, but it's far from the ineptitude that's portrayed here post after post after post...

 

[psychoPat]

Aikman's system seems to suggest that our game at JAX
could become one for the ages.

 

[cstjohn17]

Legends in their own mind (only) here will still criticize our offense as inept.

I'm not saying that our O is operating at peak efficience or even as well as it should be. There's room and need for improvement, but it's far from the ineptitude that's portrayed here post after post after post...

Any rating system never realy shows you what your eyes tell you. It is refreshing to see that the Pats are rated so highly because I don't even think they are close to hitting their stride.

 

[PonyExpress]

Legends in their own mind (only) here will still criticize our offense as inept.

I'm not saying that our O is operating at peak efficience or even as well as it should be. There's room and need for improvement, but it's far from the ineptitude that's portrayed here post after post after post...

Agreed. Speaking for myself, my anxiety about the offense comes from the possibility the Pats will have to play both SD and Indy, maybe on the road, to reach the SB. In those games the offense will probably need to mount consistent drives, put up 24+ points and avoid turnovers. Four of the last 5 games haven't inspired alot of confidence (Indy/NYJ/Chi/Det), and GB isn't a solid measuring stick right now. It's reasonable to be anxious at this point, despite the encouraging Aikman offensive rating.

 

[arrellbee]

Did anyone happen to notice that only 2 of the top 10 rated teams are from the NFC ?? Maybe there is something to his metrics

I would say that he comes up with the teams that would be a majority of all the votes of folks as to top teams. And I think that not many folks would rate NFC teams other than Dallas and Chicago as top 10.

The one rather fascinating thing is how the Patriots sneak up to the top of the list. How about that.

San Diego isn't much of a surprise. I'm not too surprised that the Cowboys edge out Chicago. It was not a surprise that Indy is down the list. But it was a surprise to me that Jacksonville crept up so high.

 

[edgecy]

I would say that he comes up with the teams that would be a majority of all the votes of folks as to top teams. And I think that not many folks would rate NFC teams other than Dallas and Chicago as top 10.

Just watch ESPN.

 

[FSUPatsFan]

Is there an archive somewhere that shows his rankings from previous years and how the teams really ended up finishing?

 

[Lansdowne]

Aikman Ratings now have the Pats at #3, which is still very good.

 

[Digger44]

Legends in their own mind

Hey did you steal that from me? I used it this week.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Look at the date of my post, grasshopper.

 

[VJCPatriot]

BTW I applaud Aikman for coming up with an objective composite stat for measuring offensive and defensive performance. I've long felt that yards per game hardly tell the whole story.

I don't think the Aikman rating is perfect because who is to say what the exact percentage weighting should be to reflect performance? The percentages picked seem somewhat arbitrary.

The last flaw in the system is that it doesn't account for strength of opponents. A team can rack up impressive performance stats by beating a cellar dweller and those stats are inflated versus bad performances against the few good teams faced. But I suppose strength of opponent would be impossible to measure until the end of the season and is really a tough stat to quantify anyway.

The Aikman rating is a good start. But I'd like to see more descriptive stats for the game of football. It is beginning point to approach the complexity of baseball analytical stats, but we're not there yet.

PS Baseball is probably the ultimate stathead sports imo. I like football the best. But baseball right now is just unmatched in terms of sheer stats you can look at and play around with. Try out Baseball Mogul if you like playing with stats too.

 

[Kasmir]

BTW I applaud Aikman for coming up with an objective composite stat for measuring offensive and defensive performance. I've long felt that yards per game hardly tell the whole story.

I don't think the Aikman rating is perfect because who is to say what the exact percentage weighting should be to reflect performance? The percentages picked seem somewhat arbitrary.

The last flaw in the system is that it doesn't account for strength of opponents. A team can rack up impressive performance stats by beating a cellar dweller and those stats are inflated versus bad performances against the few good teams faced. But I suppose strength of opponent would be impossible to measure until the end of the season and is really a tough stat to quantify anyway.

The Aikman rating is a good start. But I'd like to see more descriptive stats for the game of football. It is beginning point to approach the complexity of baseball analytical stats, but we're not there yet.

PS Baseball is probably the ultimate stathead sports imo. I like football the best. But baseball right now is just unmatched in terms of sheer stats you can look at and play around with. Try out Baseball Mogul if you like playing with stats too.

Why don't you check out the Football Outsider's stuff? Aikman's stuff is drive based, FO's is per play granularity, and the whole endeavor was directly inspired by Bill James revolutionary statistical approach to baseball.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

 

[Triumph]

http://learnflash.virtualave.net/DVOA_16/

 

[DarrylS]

http://learnflash.virtualave.net/DVOA_16/

When I look at those charts my late onset ADHD sets in...

 

[BTTA]

Interesting, with obvious flaws. We are number one a week ago, then beat the #4 team in their stadium, and drop to #3. And that game is rated as our third worst defensive performance.

 

[mgteich]

USA Today Ratings use a much better base to compare: wins a losses.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I've always liked Aikman's rating system, even though I haven't always liked the results.

For the fun of it, I looked at how his top ten teams have done against other top ten teams through week 16. Here are the results (ranked, for no particular reason, by W/L Percentage). IMHO, while these are all great teams this year, those teams (Colts, Chargers, Pats and Ravens) with winning records against this competition (plus the Broncos who played eight games against top ten teams and remained at .500) are without a doubt the elite of the league as we head into the Playoffs.

Colts: .800 (4--1)
Chargers: .667 (4--2)
Patriots: .600 (3--2)
Ravens: .600 (3--2)
Broncos: .500 (4--4)
Cowboys: .500 (1--1)
Jaguars: .500 (2--2)
Chiefs: .333 (2--6)
Bengals: .286 (2--5)
Bears: .000 (0--1)

 

[PatsFanSince74]

BTW I applaud Aikman for coming up with an objective composite stat for measuring offensive and defensive performance. I've long felt that yards per game hardly tell the whole story.

I don't think the Aikman rating is perfect because who is to say what the exact percentage weighting should be to reflect performance? The percentages picked seem somewhat arbitrary.

The last flaw in the system is that it doesn't account for strength of opponents. A team can rack up impressive performance stats by beating a cellar dweller and those stats are inflated versus bad performances against the few good teams faced. But I suppose strength of opponent would be impossible to measure until the end of the season and is really a tough stat to quantify anyway.

The Aikman rating is a good start. But I'd like to see more descriptive stats for the game of football. It is beginning point to approach the complexity of baseball analytical stats, but we're not there yet.

PS Baseball is probably the ultimate stathead sports imo. I like football the best. But baseball right now is just unmatched in terms of sheer stats you can look at and play around with. Try out Baseball Mogul if you like playing with stats too.

Assume you're familiar with and have worked your way through Bob Carrolls "The Hidden Game of Football" and that you subscribe to KC Joyner's stats? If not, I think you'll enjoy both.