After this weekend, I now know why defense wins championships

[pdangle]

As games become more and more important, referees are less and less inclined to blow the whistle. Obviously this helps the D, no need to explain there.

I thought it was a NHL thing. NBA obviously too.

Guess it's fundamental across pro sports, just a bit harder to spot in the NFL where playoff games are fewer. Obviously some refs are exceptions, but as a group pattern they pretty much fall in line. I would imagine, they don't want to be known as THAT guy who called the ticky tack and took it out of the players hands.

 

[Bella*chick]

The minute I read your post title that is exactly what I thought.

 

[PatriotSeven]

It's a myth. They don't. Offenses just play more careful and conservative in the playoffs and Super Bowl. They still win the game though. Not too many Super Bowls where the defense scores the final points.

 

[PrairiePat]

Even though some blatant calls against us may get missed, I prefer fewer penalties. I think most fans do. But it doesn't just favor the defense - offensive line holding has been rampant in the playoffs this year.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yeah, teams that win championships do not even have an offensive unit. I heard the Giants are going to concede Brady the ball on every series and hope they can get enough pick sixes and fumble returns to win it.

 

[PatriotSeven]

It just kills me to see so many people miss the biggest most obvious fact. The teams that put up the biggest blowouts consistently have to have the best defenses.

You can't have a score of 40-10 without a great defense. Somebody's gotta stop the other team.

:bricks:

You need both: great defense and great offense to have a blowout. Although sometimes the other offense totally screws itself which helps. I kind of expect some of this. I say lets let Eli and the Giants be the favorites for a change and see how they handle it

It's easier to win when no one expects you to. No pressure.

 

[mosi]

What I find odd is that the refs are not consistent. There were tons of play this weekend that in the regular season would have been called but for these games, were not. Do they tell the players before hand how they are going to call the game?

 

[Satchboogie3]

Here's what I've see so far this playoffs:
Giants over Falcons - Two bottom-of-the pack defenses playing with the Falcon's actually being better during the season. The hot team won though.

Broncos over Steelers - Defensive scheming is just as important as defensive talent....

Saint's over Lions - No defense, better offense won. Moving on

Texans over Bengals - Average bengals team with a poor offense and rookie QB on the road against a stout defense.

Giants over Packers - Packers had the better defense and offense during the season, Giants were hot and the Packers weren't. Simple as that.

Ravens over Texans - Difference was Ravens offense. While not great or even good they were facing a team with practically no offense.

Pats over Broncos - Defense knew how to kill tebow, but really they just couldn't handle the offense.

49ers over Saints - It took the game of Alex Smith's life for the 49ers to scratch out a win against the high powered Saint's offense. Giving up 32 points isn't what I'd call a good defensive performance. The game is 60 minutes, not 45 or 50.

Giants over 49ers - The 9ers shot themselves in the foot but it really came down to the inability of Alex Smith and their offense to put points on the board. 17 points in Overtime? More often than not it's not going to be good enough no matter how good your defense is.

Pats over Ravens - Flacco and the Ravens offense couldn't make the plays to win the game and put up enough points despite Brady playing poorly and the Pats only scoring 23 points.

I'm not sure what playoffs you've been watching, but the teams I've seen win have been either the hot team or the team that could play complimentary sides of the ball, not the defensive juggernauts. Just because 2 of the highest scoring offenses get knocked out doesn't mean that "O LOOK, DEFENSE STILL WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!". It means A. their defense is that bad and/or B. They played a bad game.

----------------

Why do people have a hard time with this. One unit in and of itself means nothing. Your greatest strength is only as good as your biggest weakness. Balance is the only thing that is important. I'm not talking about balance in terms of making each unit as good as the other. I'm talking about maximizing potential in terms of point differential. A team that gives up 50 points a game but scores 80 is a better team with more balance than one that gives up only 10 points but can only manage to score 25.

The Browns and Dolphins gave up the 5th and 6th least points this season. Must have been good, right? Combined 10 wins....

Look at the Baltimore Ravens. They only won one superbowl with their often league leading defense since 2000. Why? The offense. Guess which year the team had the highest point differential (and was 2nd in the league)? 2000.......

The difference between the 2005 and 2008 Superbowl Championship Steelers teams were the offense. Ranked 8th in '05 and 20th in '08. Guess what was the same? You bet, their 5th ranked point differential. Much better defense in '08 compensated for the worse offense.

Of course there's a lot more beyond point differential and you can't completely avoid the luck factor (see '07 )

 

[brdmaverick]

I think we all pretty much know that there are less flags in the playoffs as refs are hesitant to make game changing calls.

 

[ahmed]

The other reason is it takes only one player on offence to suck to ruin them (QB) while on D, one bad performance is no where near as critical.

At the end of the game though, to win you need to score more than the other team.

 

[pdangle]

Yes not an earth shattering revalation for sure, just was pretty obvious this game. Not to our advantage either. When you have high octane offense you want more PI calls. Just opens the game and increases your advantage. And when they let em it helps the D cover. Look at this game and SB vs Rams.

Yes of course everything matters and points are all that count in the end.

But its indisputable that if penalties are called more or less consiststly in any manner (or any other such type new influence), what you have is a FUNDAMENTAL change in the game and the effects should shift in a understandable way. Often easier defined in hindsight as interactions are complex in any sport. First rule of forecasting, ask, are the models or in this case, our expectations still valid under the new conditions.