After the Saints Game

[mayoclinic]

This brings to mind something I've been musing over lately. The Patriots O-line has been built on fairly light, agile guys to get outside on screen passes and move quickly to the second level. And that's good.

However, since aquiring Moss, we've obviously becoming more of a medium-to-deep-throwing team, requiring Brady to hold the ball longer, which has exposed our offensive lines weaknesses. Vollmer is hands down our best pass blocker, which is kind of sad being a raw rookie.

In essence, what Belichick has done is change the identity of the offense with the addition of guys like Moss, Stallworth, Galloway, etc, but kept the same offensive line...which is good for continuity's sake, but doesn't allow them to play to their strengths -- which seems very un-Belichick.

I don't have any answers here. But unless the Patriots offense goes run/screen/quick slant heavy, 4-3 defenses with good pass rushers on the line are going to give us serious problems.

I've been thinking for a long time that our line doesn't fit our style any more. I love what Vollmer and Mankins bring to the left side of the line - 2 very powerful and physically dominant guys with a mean streak and plenty of athletic ability. They are our best linemen by far. Vollmer is a rookie, but he's kind of a special case. (Mankins was our best lineman as a rookie, too.) Those guys are pro bowl caliber linemen.

The rest of the line is weak, IMHO. Neal is fine when healthy and on, but more often than not he's injured. He'll be 34 next season, his contract is up, and he's not worth his $3.5M cap hit given his age and injury history. Koppen and Kaczur just don't cut it. Koppen's a great field general, but he gets pushed around way too much. And Kaczur is a major liability on the right side. Light would be a big upgrade at RT, but at age 32 I don't see him as a long term solution.

I agree that we've got to use this draft to rebuild the trenches - the DL/pass rush and the OL. Find another Vollmer and another Mankins for the right side, or a center, and we'd be in business.

 

[Jimke]

Some, but by no means all. The ones I would like to see re-signed are Wilfork, Mankins, Bodden, Watson and Gostkowski.

Neal will be 34 next fall, is injury prone, and has a cap hit of almost $3.5M. Faulk is a stud but is a 3rd done back most of the time, will be 34 in June, and has a cap hit of over $4M. Jarvis Green will be 31, is a part-time player, and has a salary alone of over $2.5M. Woods is making over $1.5M and can barely get on the field. Derrick Burgess has done next to nothing for us, will be 32 in August, and gets $2M. Adalius Thomas was a healthy scratch, has questioned BB, has done very little this season, will be 33 in August, and has a salary alone of almost $5M. That's at least $18.5M (not counting bonus and incentives) tied up in 6 guys, who are definitely replaceable. Faulk is by far the most valuable right now, but at 34 it's not clear how long he can keep going on, and his contract is significant.

My fear is that the Patriots have written off all the players you mentioned

as too expensive to re-sign.

 

[mayoclinic]

My fear is that the Patriots have written off all the players you mentioned as too expensive to re-sign.

We've got to re-sign someone. The salary cap for 2009 was $127 million. 2010 will likely be uncapped, and certainly more will be spent. The players I mentioned above would save about $20M. That should be enough to sign Wilfork, Mankins, Gostkowski and possibly even Watson if we wanted to.

 

[sg14]

This an interesting thought, kinda like a corollary to the thought alot of other posters have posted, in that we long for the early years of Brady with a running game, play action, short passes. Myself I'd just as soon dump the shotgun, and go back to the standard setup.

I hope they make a change for the rest of the year.

This brings to mind something I've been musing over lately. The Patriots O-line has been built on fairly light, agile guys to get outside on screen passes and move quickly to the second level. And that's good.

However, since aquiring Moss, we've obviously becoming more of a medium-to-deep-throwing team, requiring Brady to hold the ball longer, which has exposed our offensive lines weaknesses. Vollmer is hands down our best pass blocker, which is kind of sad being a raw rookie.

In essence, what Belichick has done is change the identity of the offense with the addition of guys like Moss, Stallworth, Galloway, etc, but kept the same offensive line...which is good for continuity's sake, but doesn't allow them to play to their strengths -- which seems very un-Belichick.

I don't have any answers here. But unless the Patriots offense goes run/screen/quick slant heavy, 4-3 defenses with good pass rushers on the line are going to give us serious problems.

 

[DocE]

Doc,

I always look forward to your posts, and generally find them insightful. But you've got to lay off of the sauce.

The Pats need a defensive playmaker (more than one), I agree. But why not through the draft? And why go spend a fortune on guys who may not fit?

There's going to be a lot of defensive talent in the draft, and plenty of pass rushers. Maybe BB needs to be a bit less conservative about playing rookies than he's been in the past, because they are able to come in and make an impact for many other teams. Merriman, Ware and Suggs all had an impact as rookies. Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and rookie Brian Orapko is 2nd on the team in sacks with 7. Do you think Andre Carter would have 9 sacks if he didn't have Orapko opposite him as a pass rushing threat?

There's no guarantee that a high-priced FA is going to make a big impact for us any more than a rookie. Adalius Thomas was brought in to be just that kind of playmaker, and he hasn't exactly wowed. Mario Williams? He would destroy the salary structure of the team, we could never get him, and it's not clear that he would be a good fit. Ray Edwards? Do you really think he's the playmaker we need? Maybe Peppers, but again, not sure how we get him or afford him. Shawne Merriman is the best pass rushing FA out there, but he's been showing signs of his old form and will likely be extremely costly, plus he has personal and health issues. I think it's fine to suggest a veteran, but I'm not sure how to do it. We'll likely be limited by who we can go after in FA, unless we lose key guys of our own.

I'd rather get a young Jared Allen (Greg Hardy), Julius Peppers (Carlos Dunlap), Shawne Merriman (Derrick Morgan), Jevon Kearse (Jason Pierre-Paul), Adalius Thomas (Jeremy Beal), Jason Taylor (Austen Lane), Terrell Suggs (Everson Griffen) or Willie McGinest (Greg Romeus). Ideally 2 of them, or one plus someone like Sergio Kindle or Jerry Hughes. They're all young, talented, physical, and much more cost-effective.

I am not sure if you can say with certainty that any player does or does not fit in the Patriots defense firght now. They have a heavy 4-3 look (or 4-2-5), but also put the 3-4 on the field against certain teams.

I don't see anyone on the defense that a team has to gameplan against right now. Vince Wilfork is a great NT, but he usually plays less than 50% of the snaps and the NFL is a passing league...I'd much rather have a great pass rusher than a great NT against the elite teams in the league. I don't want to wait another year hoping for someone to show up and be a cornerstone of this defense. In the (admittedly unlikely) event that the Patriots are able to acquire Julius Peppers (as an example), you change the defense to fit his strengths, not vice versa. Play a primarily 4-3 scheme with Wilfork and Warren inside backed up by Wright and Pryor.

I haven't been impressed with Merriman this year, and don't think he would be a wise player to invest in long term given injury, steroid, and off the field issues in recent seasons.

All of the pass rushers you list are guys I am interested in to varying degrees, but for every one who actually has a big impact as a rookie, 4 or 5 will start out like Joey Porter, Lamarr Woodley, or Jason Taylor. For every guy who reaches his potential their will be a number of Jason Babin's, Erasmus James', etc.

Look at the 08 draft: Glenn Dorsey, Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Sedrick Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, and Kentwan Balmer all went in round 1. None of them had a huge impact as a rookie.

I don't want to go in to 2010 with a question mark about whether the Patriots have enough talent on defense again. In a hypothetical scenario, I'd feel more comfortable with trading for Julius Peppers (giving up a 1 and a 2) and still having 2 second rounders than taking 4 guys in the first two rounds.

Ideally, it's not an "either or" situation.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am not sure if you can say with certainty that any player does or does not fit in the Patriots defense firght now. They have a heavy 4-3 look (or 4-2-5), but also put the 3-4 on the field against certain teams.

I don't see anyone on the defense that a team has to gameplan against right now. Vince Wilfork is a great NT, but he usually plays less than 50% of the snaps and the NFL is a passing league...I'd much rather have a great pass rusher than a great NT against the elite teams in the league. I don't want to wait another year hoping for someone to show up and be a cornerstone of this defense. In the (admittedly unlikely) event that the Patriots are able to acquire Julius Peppers (as an example), you change the defense to fit his strengths, not vice versa. Play a primarily 4-3 scheme with Wilfork and Warren inside backed up by Wright and Pryor.

I haven't been impressed with Merriman this year, and don't think he would be a wise player to invest in long term given injury, steroid, and off the field issues in recent seasons.

All of the pass rushers you list are guys I am interested in to varying degrees, but for every one who actually has a big impact as a rookie, 4 or 5 will start out like Joey Porter, Lamarr Woodley, or Jason Taylor. For every guy who reaches his potential their will be a number of Jason Babin's, Erasmus James', etc.

Look at the 08 draft: Glenn Dorsey, Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Sedrick Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, and Kentwan Balmer all went in round 1. None of them had a huge impact as a rookie.

I don't want to go in to 2010 with a question mark about whether the Patriots have enough talent on defense again. In a hypothetical scenario, I'd feel more comfortable with trading for Julius Peppers (giving up a 1 and a 2) and still having 2 second rounders than taking 4 guys in the first two rounds.

Ideally, it's not an "either or" situation.

I don't think there's any guarantee that either a veteran or a rookie will fit in and produce immediately. Both have struggled with BB's complex schemes. A vet FA bust is much more expensive than a rookie bust.

I like Ray Edwards, and if we can pick him up I'd be all for it. Julius Peppers would be a fine addition, but the salary cost would be prohibitive. Under "normal" FA rules (I don't know how this changes in an uncapped year) a FA can be signed to an offer sheet at the cost of two 1st round picks, which usually would be in consecutive years. Trading a 1st and a 2nd would be essentially the same as signing Peppers to an offer sheet. That seems way too high for a 30 year old. The Vikings traded a 1st and a 3rd for Jared Allen, but he was 26 at the time. Peppers salary is an increasing burden on Carolina, and with John Fox and Delhomme probably gone after this season they should be in rebuilding mode, and willing to listen to offers. The Jets traded John Abraham to Atlanta for the 29th pick in the draft. Abraham was around 27 at the time and in his prime, and a 2 time pro bowler. That seems like a reasonable starting point for discussions.

In my first mock I suggested that trading a 1st or a high 2nd for Peppers was an option, but I didn't know how the Pats could work the money. I still think that's where I stand.

I'd be happy to see some mixture of veterans and rookie pass rushers. There's benefits to both. Jared Allen was a developmental pick once, and a productive draft pick is much more cost-effective than a high priced vet. There's also tremendous value to having pass rushers from each side, making it much harder for the opposing team to take both out of the game (witness Freeney and Mathis).

 

[DocE]

The Jared Allen trade was for a first and two 3rd's. I don't know what the value on Peppers would be at 30 years old compared to Allen at 26, but with two strikes in the leagues substance abuse policy. The Vikings did pick 17th that year so (hopefully) their first rounder had much more value than the Patriots will.

I wouldn't be opposed to drafting a pass rusher and trading for/signing a veteran as well.

I think it's extremely unlikely that my wish comes true especially since my list of players I'd be willing to trade for is limited. I'd have much bigger concerns trading for a guy who was merely good and not great. We've seen what guys like Hugh Douglas, Justin Smith, and Derrick Burgess do when they change uniforms. Some guys who I'd classify as good not great, such as John Abraham, work out, but I only feel truly comfortable with elite players switching systems/teams and maintaining their prior level of play.

Giving up picks AND the cap space that comes with a big contract means you have to be really sure you know what you are getting.