After the Colts Game ...

[mayoclinic]

Looking at my priorities for the offseason and draft after the Colts game, I feel more strongly than ever about focusing on the following areas:

1. The pass rush. The pass rush. The pass rush. We need at least one bona fide rushing threat. Preferably 2. Indy showed how hard it is to stop both Freeney and Mathis. We shut down Freeney and Mathis killed us. I'd like to see us use 2 of our day 1 picks on pass rushers. Michael Johnson was huge for Cincinnati yesterday against Pittsburgh. It would have been nice to have someone like that. Derrick Morgan (an unstoppable force), Greg Hardy, Everson Griffen, Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul are all day 1 prospects who could play DE and the elephant, and provide a power rush. Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Beal, Ricky Sapp and Eric Norwood could all provide a speed rush off the edge as 3-4 OLBs.

2. The power run game and the right side of the OL. I put these together. Vollmer is going to be a stud at LT, and if we can re-sign or franchise Mankins then the left side of our OL will be studly. But the right side is a weakness, with Neal aging and injury prone and Kaczur serviceable but no better. We found a franchise LT picking at #58 in the draft last year. I'd like to see us use two of our other picks on a stud RT, RG or running back. Jonathan Dwyer and Ryan Mathews continue to look good. Toby Gerhart is intriguing. As for the OL, it should be a lot easier to find an RT and/or RG in the second round than a franchise LT. Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, and Gabe Carmini are all attractive. I think LSU junior Joseph Barksdale could be another Vollmer on the right side. Jason Fox and Jeff Linkenbach would probably both be upgrades over Kaczur at RT. Bruce Campbell from Maryland is probably wasted on the right side, and Vollmer currently looks too good to consider moving to the right side long term.

3. The run defense. We need more depth on our DL. Obviously, having Green and Warren injured hurt a lot, and Pryor and Brace should only get better. But I'd like to see us pick up another bona fide 3-4 DE. Cameron Heyward, Leonard Marsh, Arthur Jones, Jared Odrick, Adrian Clayborn, Corey Wootton, Vince Oghobasse, and Brandon Deaderick are all options. Someone good will slip to the early 3rd round, and we should look to trade up. If we use a day 1 pick on DL then we should look at picking up an OL, RB or pass rusher in the early 3rd round. With the depth likely to be available in this draft, there will be day 1 talent (even late 1st round talent) slipping to the 3rd round.

Our weaknesses burned us against the Colts. Mathis hurt us on the right side. We couldn't power run in the 4th quarter. Our DL wore down and couldn't stop the run in the 4th quarter. And above all we couldn't get enough pressure on Manning.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

1. The pass rush. The pass rush. The pass rush.

I've given up trying to figure BB out on this one. I just don't understand what it is he sees or doesn't see.

2. But the right side is a weakness, with Neal aging and injury prone and Kaczur serviceable but no better. We found a franchise LT picking at #58 in the draft last year. I'd like to see us use two of our other picks on a stud RT, RG or running back. Jonathan Dwyer and Ryan Mathews continue to look good. Toby Gerhart is intriguing. As for the OL, it should be a lot easier to find an RT and/or RG in the second round than a franchise LT. Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, and Gabe Carmini are all attractive.

I'm much more concerned about Neal (who's going to be a FA anyways) than Kaczur. I agree that the Pats will likely take a RB, although that could be at any point in the draft.

 

[JoeShmoe]

In order I think we need

1a. Stud OLB (day 1 pick)
1b. Stud DE (day 1 pick)
3. RG/RT (RT we have LeVoir who I think is another Vollmer given a run with his size, Neal is nearly done)
4. FB/Downhill RB (need thunder to Maroneys lightning)
5. Punter (yes, I would draft one who could have put the Colts in their own 20 yesterday)

I think the first 2 are the most important and i'd be happy if we get a big guard but im not sure how they rate Ohrnberger or will move Kazcur inside

I also think we need a FB, one who can run and catch a few, much like Heath Evans did for us

 

[everlong]

1. The pass rush.

Considering they rushed 4 most of the night and 5 sparingly and I cannot remember them bringing more than that more than twice they actually had good pressure most of the night and Manning was forced to bring in Clark close to the tackle to make him change his angle. Overall I agree with you I'm just not sure last night was the best example. Also I think they need to change their philosophy against high powered offenses and be a lot more aggressive and a lot less bend but don't break. Until that happens I'm not sure it matter any way.

2. The power run game and the right side of the OL. I put these together. Vollmer is going to be a stud at LT, and if we can re-sign or franchise Mankins then the left side of our OL will be studly.

I have to re-watch the game but either Koppen or Mankins was getting killed in the run game time and time again. People will want to blame it on Maroney but he was getting hit 3-5 yards behind the line time and time again and did well to get back to the LOS most times. This team simply isn't a good run blocking team any longer and they really haven't been for a long time. Upside is I think Bill needs to move Light to RT when he comes back and keep Vollmer at LT. That makes for a big improvement off the top.

3. The run defense.

They went with 4-3ish type look for most of the night with two OLBs at DE so I'm not sure where this applies from this game. Addai and Brown did squat. It was simpson on the draws that hurt us late in the game. That was more of a case of pick your poison. The run defense has been very good when the objective of the game plan is to stop a high powered run game this year.

Our weaknesses burned us against the Colts. Mathis hurt us on the right side. We couldn't power run in the 4th quarter. Our DL wore down and couldn't stop the run in the 4th quarter. And above all we couldn't get enough pressure on Manning.

I thought the pressure on Manning was better than I thought it would be. On Mathis I couldn't understand why given Vollmer's success on the other side they didn't start chucking Mathis more.

Any way they won't be drafting in a position to draft a stud OLB who fits all their criteria. I'm sure come draft time the forum will be all a buzz about these guys but my prediction is they won't draft any of them. I think guys who fit their mold will be gone in the teens like Ware and Merriman were.

 

[mayoclinic]

Any way they won't be drafting in a position to draft a stud OLB who fits all their criteria. I'm sure come draft time the forum will be all a buzz about these guys but my prediction is they won't draft any of them. I think guys who fit their mold will be gone in the teens like Ware and Merriman were.

That's not at all clear to me.

With Carlos Dunlap, Derick Morgan, Greg Hardy, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul, Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Beal, Ricky Sapp and Eric Norwood all possibly coming out it's hard to imagine that some of them won't fall to where the Pats pick. Probably more than one, and some should fall to where we pick in the 2nd round.

 

[everlong]

That's not at all clear to me.

With Carlos Dunlap, Derick Morgan, Greg Hardy, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul, Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Beal, Ricky Sapp and Eric Norwood all possibly coming out it's hard to imagine that some of them won't fall to where the Pats pick. Probably more than one, and some should fall to where we pick in the 2nd round.

Except that the ones have have the physical build and the production will be gone. They will not take a flier on one or the other and they have proven it.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I have to admit, I did not see a play of the game last night, so I am not sure what was happening on the right side of the O line, but I do want to speak about draft eligible O line guys.

1.) When throwing out names it is important to realize that we run a zone blocking scheme. So if you can find a college that runs a zone blocking scheme, and has a fairly complex passing attack, then that is a place to look for draft eleigible O lineman. (ie: Houston)

2.) The o lineman can not be fat, ignorant and slobby. They need to be quick, athelic, mobile and intelligent.

I know this is unpopular, but I see Kppoen is the weakest link in the O line on running downs. He gets very little push and lacks explosion or burst. As a pass blocker even when he sinks his hips, he still gets bull rushed. And while he is really good as a combination blocker and very smart, I think he can be upgraded.

For OG's in this draft:

The only senior OG that I see as a day 1 draft pick is Mike Johnson of Alabama. (I promise I am NOT an Alabama fan, but I have to give props to the talent assembled in Tuscaloosa.) Ingram is probably going to win the Hiesman and a lot of those yards are obtained while riding Johnson's hip pocket to the outside.

The only junior OG I see as day one draft worthy is a converted OT, Carmini. Tremendous power, explosion and burst. Nor so great in space. I would love to see Carmini lined up across from Mount Cody to see what he really has under the hood.

 

[carolinatony]

Looking at my priorities for the offseason and draft after the Colts game, I feel more strongly than ever about focusing on the following areas:

1. The pass rush. The pass rush. The pass rush. We need at least one bona fide rushing threat. Preferably 2. Indy showed how hard it is to stop both Freeney and Mathis. We shut down Freeney and Mathis killed us. I'd like to see us use 2 of our day 1 picks on pass rushers. Michael Johnson was huge for Cincinnati yesterday against Pittsburgh. It would have been nice to have someone like that. Derrick Morgan (an unstoppable force), Greg Hardy, Everson Griffen, Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul are all day 1 prospects who could play DE and the elephant, and provide a power rush. Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Beal, Ricky Sapp and Eric Norwood could all provide a speed rush off the edge as 3-4 OLBs.

2. The power run game and the right side of the OL. I put these together. Vollmer is going to be a stud at LT, and if we can re-sign or franchise Mankins then the left side of our OL will be studly. But the right side is a weakness, with Neal aging and injury prone and Kaczur serviceable but no better. We found a franchise LT picking at #58 in the draft last year. I'd like to see us use two of our other picks on a stud RT, RG or running back. Jonathan Dwyer and Ryan Mathews continue to look good. Toby Gerhart is intriguing. As for the OL, it should be a lot easier to find an RT and/or RG in the second round than a franchise LT. Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, and Gabe Carmini are all attractive. I think LSU junior Joseph Barksdale could be another Vollmer on the right side. Jason Fox and Jeff Linkenbach would probably both be upgrades over Kaczur at RT. Bruce Campbell from Maryland is probably wasted on the right side, and Vollmer currently looks too good to consider moving to the right side long term.


Glad you posted this Mayo.
We didn't get our LB's like we thought last year so I agree with you.
The pass rush. The pass rush. I want 2 of them and would love to trade up if needed.

Get us another Dillon and we don't have to pass in the 4th quarter with the lead. There HAS to be one RB in collage that can power for those 3/4 yds like he did. We need that steady back that has Power.

 

[The Coon]

We want a power back who can get those 3 to 4 yrds, i got two words...Johnathan Dwyer

 

[carolinatony]

We want a power back who can get those 3 to 4 yrds, i got two words...Johnathan Dwyer

Well, if he's what we need and a pass rusher I say TRADE UP. Of course BB won't do it. This team really needs that runner type of runner imo.

Question for you guys. If your playing the Pats who's the one player on defense that scares you the most? I don't where we have that type of player.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have to admit, I did not see a play of the game last night, so I am not sure what was happening on the right side of the O line, but I do want to speak about draft eligible O line guys.

1.) When throwing out names it is important to realize that we run a zone blocking scheme. So if you can find a college that runs a zone blocking scheme, and has a fairly complex passing attack, then that is a place to look for draft eleigible O lineman. (ie: Houston)

2.) The o lineman can not be fat, ignorant and slobby. They need to be quick, athelic, mobile and intelligent.

I know this is unpopular, but I see Kppoen is the weakest link in the O line on running downs. He gets very little push and lacks explosion or burst. As a pass blocker even when he sinks his hips, he still gets bull rushed. And while he is really good as a combination blocker and very smart, I think he can be upgraded.

For OG's in this draft:

The only senior OG that I see as a day 1 draft pick is Mike Johnson of Alabama. (I promise I am NOT an Alabama fan, but I have to give props to the talent assembled in Tuscaloosa.) Ingram is probably going to win the Hiesman and a lot of those yards are obtained while riding Johnson's hip pocket to the outside.

The only junior OG I see as day one draft worthy is a converted OT, Carmini. Tremendous power, explosion and burst. Nor so great in space. I would love to see Carmini lined up across from Mount Cody to see what he really has under the hood.

Just because we have run a ZBS does not mean that we always will. We could go with more of a power running scheme.

Right now there are 4 possible day 1 OL candidates that I like for the Pats. 3 are juniors. I don't see my favorite LT, Bruce Campbell, as a need given how Vollmer is developing.

My 4 guys are:

1. Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU (junior). 6'5" 315#. Tremendous feet, a much better prospect than Ciron Black IMHO. I would love to have him at RT opposite Vollmer at LT. I think he would become for the right side what Vollmer is apparently becoming for the left. Having dominant tackles on both sides of the ball would be enormous.

2. Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho. 6'6" 330#. If you think he is "fat, ignorant and slobby" you haven't seen him play. He has very little body fat, looks like a TE, and moves like one too, with incredible strength and power. Put him at RG and leave Light at RT and the right side of our OL would be awesome.

3. Maurkice Pouncey, OG/C, Florida (junior). 6'5" 318#. I agree with you about Koppen - a fine technician and line general, but physically the weakest link on the line. Pouncey has the strength to handle the guys like Jason Ferguson, Jamal Williams, and Kris Jenkins inside. He is also versatile enough to play OG for us.

4. Gabe Carmini, RT, Wisconsin (junior). 6'7" 320#. A mauler, very strong and tenacious. Not good in space. Might be a top RT, or may have to move inside to guard, where I would rank him my #2 prospect after Iupati.

 

[carolinatony]

You should have your own site Mayo. I love reading your analaysis.

Who's your 3/4 pass rushers you wouldn't mind the Pats grabbing next year if BB does take one. I'd like to do some research on them
thanks

 

[mayoclinic]

You should have your own site Mayo. I love reading your analaysis.

Who's your 3/4 pass rushers you wouldn't mind the Pats grabbing next year if BB does take one. I'd like to do some research on them
thanks

I've broken the pass rushers into 2 groups:

1. Guys who are 4-3 DEs who can stand up and play 3-4 elephant, but who aren't true 3-4 OLBs the way most people think of them. In the 4-3 these guys would play DE, not LB, but they would be comfortable standing up and either rushing or dropping back. Most of these guys are 265-275 lb. power rushers, who have the strength to set the edge and play run, and also the athleticism to play in space. They have the length to get their arms up and clog the passing lanes. I wouldn't put them 1-on-1 on a running back or even a TE most of the time, but they have good athleticism and pursuit.

This group includes one senior (Greg Hardy, 6'5" 267#, 4.67 speed) and 4 juniors (Derrick Morgan, 6'4" 268#; Everson Griffen, 6'3", 270+ lbs., 4.70 speed, and very long arms; Carlos Dunlap, 6'6", 270#, 4.70 speed; and Jason Pierre-Paul, 6'6", 265#, 4.65 speed). Junior Jeremy Beal (6'3", 260#, 4.70 speed) from Oklahoma might fall into this group, or he may fall into the next group, I'm not sure at this point exactly where he fits. True sophomore Robert Quinn from North Carolina (6'5", 260#, supposedly timed at 4.52) won't be eligible this year, but may be the best of the bunch in the long run.

This is a phenomenal group of guys, assuming they come out. Dunlap and Pierre-Paul have tremendous length, speed and athleticism. Hardy is pretty much unstoppable when healthy. Griffen has long arms for his size and amazing speed and athleticism for his bulk. And Morgan has been an unstoppable force for Georgia Tech this year against both the run and the pass - kind of reminds me of Shawne Merriman in his prime.

I could see taking at least one and possible 2 of these guys. I'd love to see us run a 4-2-5 base defense with Wilfork and Warren in the middle (like Pat Williams and Kevin Williams for Minnesota) and 2 of these guys at end. I think the amount of pressure we could generate with that front 4 would be unreal. The 2 ends would both be capable of dropping back into coverage and functioning as extra LBs, and McGowan and Chung are both capable of functioning as hybrid LB/S's.

2. Guys who could play OLB (or possibly SILB) in the 3-4 and 4-3 SAM. These guys are smaller and quicker, mostly in the 250-260# range, and are more capable of covering a RB or TE in space. They should be fast enough to pursue, but strong enough to set the edge, stack and shed, and play the run. They would be rush LBs off of the edge.

The guys I see falling into this group include seniors Sergio Kindle (6'4", 255#, 4.55-4.60 speed), Jerry Hughes (6'3", 257#, 4.65-4.70 speed), Eric Norwood (6'1", 252#, 4.65-4.70 speed, who I could see playing SILB as well as OLB in the 3-4, and SAM in the 4-3) and Ricky Sapp (6'4", 248#, 4.55 speed). Junior Jeremy Beal may fall into this group as well, as discussed above. Junior Rolando McClain (6'4", 255#, 4.70 speed) could play SILB in the 3-4 and SAM in the 4-3, but I don't see him as much of a pass rusher as some of the other guys. Other possibilities could include guys like O'Brien Schofield and Lindsey Witten.

I'd like to see us take 2 pass rushers with our 4 day 1 picks - either two guys in the first group, or one from each group. With so many prospects coming out, I think some of these guys will fall into the late 1st/early 2nd round.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

You should have your own site Mayo. I love reading your analaysis.

I second this. I love reading your draft thoughts. Let me know if you go into business--I wouldn't mind writing a few articles for you once I learn more about the game

 

[carolinatony]

Where so you get this info? Why do I search mock sites to get info when you break it down so well.You amaze me Mayo
thank you

 

[mayoclinic]

I second this. I love reading your draft thoughts. Let me know if you go into business--I wouldn't mind writing a few articles for you once I learn more about the game

Thanks for the kudos, but it's not deserved.

I'm no expert. But I watch as much as I can, have tried to educate myself, search for as much material as I can, and pick the brains of trusted people who know football and the Pats such as yourself.

I think trying to predict what BB will do in the draft is a hopeless cause. He's much smarter than all of us put together. But my hope is that when the Pats do pick someone, we will have some idea who that guy is and what the Pats saw in him. I didn't predict that the Pats would take Ron Brace and Myron Pryor last year, for example; but I did see depth a DT as a need, and I think we as a group identified a lot of promising candidates, from the elite prospects (BJ Raji) to the obscure (Sammie Lee Hill, Chris Baker, Vaughn Martin).

Anyway, I prefer to think of it as a group effort.

 

[The Coon]

Mayo or whoever can shed some light,

what are your thoughts on jerry hughes? From what ive seen of him at TCU, they seem to put him as a down lineman in the 4-3. Does he have what it takes to move to the 3-4 OLB to play standing up?

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo or whoever can shed some light,

what are your thoughts on jerry hughes? From what ive seen of him at TCU, they seem to put him as a down lineman in the 4-3. Does he have what it takes to move to the 3-4 OLB to play standing up?

Yes. He's a former QB with very good mobility, who plays faster than his timed speed. He's relentless rushing the passer but also very good in pursuit. He would be a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 SAM for us, and a very good one. I currently rank him about even with Sergio Kindle and Jeremy Beal as the top 3 in this group.

 

[The Coon]

yeah from what ive seen of hughes, he really makes that TCU defense go. I think hes under the radar right now nationally but that could change if he has a great game in whatever BCS bowl game they go to.

Seeing that we will more than likely be picking in the bottom half in round 1, i would hate to see his value skyrocket into the top 10.

 

[SidelineSid]

Looking at my priorities for the offseason and draft after the Colts game, I feel more strongly than ever about focusing on the following areas:

1. The pass rush. The pass rush. The pass rush. We need at least one bona fide rushing threat. Preferably 2. Indy showed how hard it is to stop both Freeney and Mathis. We shut down Freeney and Mathis killed us. I'd like to see us use 2 of our day 1 picks on pass rushers. Michael Johnson was huge for Cincinnati yesterday against Pittsburgh. It would have been nice to have someone like that. Derrick Morgan (an unstoppable force), Greg Hardy, Everson Griffen, Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul are all day 1 prospects who could play DE and the elephant, and provide a power rush. Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Beal, Ricky Sapp and Eric Norwood could all provide a speed rush off the edge as 3-4 OLBs.
Thank you so much for writing this. I felt exactly the same way after watching the game. We outperformed their offensive line at the beginning of the game and that was why we got what little pressure that we did. As the game went on, our lack of depth and talent became woefully apparent. Once the Colts offense got into rhythm, we were exposed. By the way, I thought about the exact same thing when I watched Michael Johnson.

2. The power run game and the right side of the OL. I put these together. Vollmer is going to be a stud at LT, and if we can re-sign or franchise Mankins then the left side of our OL will be studly. But the right side is a weakness, with Neal aging and injury prone and Kaczur serviceable but no better. We found a franchise LT picking at #58 in the draft last year. I'd like to see us use two of our other picks on a stud RT, RG or running back. Jonathan Dwyer and Ryan Mathews continue to look good. Toby Gerhart is intriguing. As for the OL, it should be a lot easier to find an RT and/or RG in the second round than a franchise LT. Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, and Gabe Carmini are all attractive. I think LSU junior Joseph Barksdale could be another Vollmer on the right side. Jason Fox and Jeff Linkenbach would probably both be upgrades over Kaczur at RT. Bruce Campbell from Maryland is probably wasted on the right side, and Vollmer currently looks too good to consider moving to the right side long term.
I'm 50/50 with you hear. You made alot of sense when you mentioned the running game. The area where we differ is with running back. While I do think this is a need, why waste a first round pick on a running back when we don't run the ball very often.

We could say that we don't run often because of our mediocre talent at running back. We could also say that we don't run often because our offensive line doesn't run block well. I tend to fall in the second category. Why? Because I don't think that we all of a sudden change our entire offensive philosophy because of a talented young 20 something year old. We could, but let's not get carried away.

The reason why it seems that we are having such a hard time running the ball is because of Koppen. Yes, it's controversial, but it's true. The reason why Mathis was able to give Kaczur so much trouble was because Kaczur was on his own. We could not give him help because Neal was too busy helping Koppen handle the Colts undersized defensive ends. Because of this mismatch, Kaczur was constantly one on one with a super fast defensive end. We had to concede this disadvantage or risk defenders flying at Brady and his surgically repaired knee from the front.

This is why I say that we draft the best possible interior line man. Everyone may not agree with me, but Koppen is the weak link of the Offensive line.
3. The run defense. We need more depth on our DL. Obviously, having Green and Warren injured hurt a lot, and Pryor and Brace should only get better. But I'd like to see us pick up another bona fide 3-4 DE. Cameron Heyward, Leonard Marsh, Arthur Jones, Jared Odrick, Adrian Clayborn, Corey Wootton, Vince Oghobasse, and Brandon Deaderick are all options. Someone good will slip to the early 3rd round, and we should look to trade up. If we use a day 1 pick on DL then we should look at picking up an OL, RB or pass rusher in the early 3rd round. With the depth likely to be available in this draft, there will be day 1 talent (even late 1st round talent) slipping to the 3rd round.

Our weaknesses burned us against the Colts. Mathis hurt us on the right side. We couldn't power run in the 4th quarter. Our DL wore down and couldn't stop the run in the 4th quarter. And above all we couldn't get enough pressure on Manning.

Great post. I put my comments in bold. I think we definitely need some serious pass rushing talent. Adalius Thomas must restructure his contract and Derrick Burgess must as well. So much money and so little talent. Also, if Crable doesn't turn things around and stay healthy (durability is an asset), then I say let's find someone that can.

On Offense, I say draft an interior offensive lineman. We are going to need one in the near future. We can find a good running back in the second round or free agency.