AFC East Predictions

[RIP#40]

They lost 3 of their 4 best players on defense. Clements, Fletcher and McGahee were all leaders and play makers on their defense and are all gone. Yeah they got Willis, but he doesn't have the impact of all 3 of those guys, not even the impact that Fletcher had (yet.)

You write in a post that someone doesn't know about football and is ill informed. Yet you think the Bills got Willis as their linebacker. They got Lynch and Posluszny. You should catch up on your reading.

 

[averywhitehall]

As for other teams, I don't see how the Jets don't take a step back this year. Last year the Jets snuck up on everyone, played a last place schedule, and Chad was healthy all year.

This year teams will be gunning for them as a playoff team and they'll face a 2nd place schedule (and a more difficult NFC division). Chad's health is a wildcard which does not work in their favor.

I figure 8-8 will be a successful year for the Jets. The sad thing is that the NY media and the fans will be killing them if that happens, even though it would be a step towards perennial contention (how quickly they forget 4-12). I can't even pencil them in for 8-8, I'd figure them 7-9.


NE: 13-3
Miami: 9-7
NY: 7-9
Buffalo: 5-11

And I am just as bad at predicting records as everyone else.

How is everyone? Jets fan here. I just wanna say that the Jets were 4-12 during the 2005 season primarily due to Chad being injured. We did have to rebuild the offensive line which was old as everything and we did that. And for all this talk about the Jets having the easy schedule last year, the Pats had the same schedule except for the Broncos & Bengals...both of whom missed the playoffs. You may hate the Jets and you may hate Jet's fans even more...but give us some credit.

The addition of Thomas Jones alone makes us leagues better than last year, so I don't know where the 7-9 record is from at all. I was rewatching the Jets/Pats AFC wildcard game that I recorded, a game which looked as if you won handily, and I noticed that until the 'lateral that became a turnover' happened we were moving the ball against you guys pretty well in the second half. I state this to say that the gap between the us and the Pats was not far. Then you guys had to get Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, etc... Those moves make you a lot better than us, at least on paper. But just because you are ahead of us, does not mean we have taken a step back.
-Chris

 

[Kdo5]

Pats awesome. 14-2.

Everyone else sucks. Especially the Fins.

 

[drewdagreat]

Yep, such a terrible draft that they landed the #2 WR, #2 QB and #2 center in the entire pool. Such a bad draft that they got their QB of the future and an absolute game breaker.

#2 QB? Are you kidding?

And good luck getting Ginn to run any real routes or even get off of the line.

 

[jman924]

Why bother, they thinkt their team is the best every year...

There's a reason we think that.

but whens the last time the won the SB??

It hasn't quite been three decades yet I guess. Should it be every year like it is for the phish?

Who cares how many games they win, the idea is to win the SB and they can't seem to do that anymore, just call the the Atlanta Braves. Except now all that character they preached for the last 6 years is out the window when they sign Meriweather and Moss....couple of class acts there, let them live in their fanatasy world eventually every team comes back to the pack and that's what their doing. Let them live the fantasy just a little longer, it's due to end, it always does.

Yes, I expect the rest of leagues fantasy of winning the Super Bowl will fade once Brady gets his hand on the trophy again this seaon.

 

[TomBradyWoot]

I like how Dolphin fans think Ginn is so un-stoppable. I mean really, if we was so amazingly and can't be stopped, how come he didnt end up with like 100 catches for 2000 yards and 30 TDS. Now THATS unstoppable. Some little Bethel Johnson type reciever, is NOT unstoppable.

 

[Bostonian1962]

That is pretty solid. I think the Phins win up to 7 games. They're taking a look to the future approach more than ever. Also, while we say this every year, some of their key defensive players are getting long in the tooth.

Kevin Carter will be 34 this year.
V. Holliday will be 32.
J. Taylor will be 33.
Z. Thomas will be 34.
Keith Traylor will be 38.

The Pats have youth and age on the D. Miami seems to just have age.

Will this be the year, this catches up with them? Could very well be. You know if Aqua is saying 9 and 7, you can subtract several wins from that and get their actual total.

 

[Bruschi 3:16]

Patriots 13-3
Jets 8-8
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 3-13

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think it goes something like this:

Pats: 1,000,000-0
Jets: 0-1,000,000
Miami: 0-1,000,000,000
Bills: 0-infinity

Had a bit too much of the San Miguel, eh, Pat? Hope you're enjoying HK.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

How is everyone? Jets fan here. I just wanna say that the Jets were 4-12 during the 2005 season primarily due to Chad being injured. We did have to rebuild the offensive line which was old as everything and we did that. And for all this talk about the Jets having the easy schedule last year, the Pats had the same schedule except for the Broncos & Bengals...both of whom missed the playoffs. You may hate the Jets and you may hate Jet's fans even more...but give us some credit.

The addition of Thomas Jones alone makes us leagues better than last year, so I don't know where the 7-9 record is from at all. I was rewatching the Jets/Pats AFC wildcard game that I recorded, a game which looked as if you won handily, and I noticed that until the 'lateral that became a turnover' happened we were moving the ball against you guys pretty well in the second half. I state this to say that the gap between the us and the Pats was not far. Then you guys had to get Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, etc... Those moves make you a lot better than us, at least on paper. But just because you are ahead of us, does not mean we have taken a step back.
-Chris

First of all, predicting in May is silly to begin with, whether we're Patriots or Jets fans.

Second, you're right. Our schedule was only a little tougher than yours (as I was surprised to see when I actually looked at the numbers).

Third, your addition of Thomas Jones scares me.

Fourth, I thoroughly disagree with your characterization of our Playoff game. Knowledgeable, objective football fans came away from that game thinking that there was a considerable gap between our two teams. I think the usually Homer New York media also agreed (I live in the City and get the Times and Daily News delivered to my door every day).

Fifth, be very careful that you don't give yourself an evil-eye by talking about Chad like that. He hasn't strung together two strong and injury free seasons in his career. So, the probability of another strong, injury-free season from him this year is statistically against you. And, if you lose him early in the season, 7--9 will look good.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

How is everyone? Jets fan here. I just wanna say that the Jets were 4-12 during the 2005 season primarily due to Chad being injured. We did have to rebuild the offensive line which was old as everything and we did that. And for all this talk about the Jets having the easy schedule last year, the Pats had the same schedule except for the Broncos & Bengals...both of whom missed the playoffs. You may hate the Jets and you may hate Jet's fans even more...but give us some credit.

The addition of Thomas Jones alone makes us leagues better than last year, so I don't know where the 7-9 record is from at all. I was rewatching the Jets/Pats AFC wildcard game that I recorded, a game which looked as if you won handily, and I noticed that until the 'lateral that became a turnover' happened we were moving the ball against you guys pretty well in the second half. I state this to say that the gap between the us and the Pats was not far. Then you guys had to get Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, etc... Those moves make you a lot better than us, at least on paper. But just because you are ahead of us, does not mean we have taken a step back.
-Chris

When I predict a slide for the Jets it is not based on looking at addition/subtractions. I may very well be wrong, and the Jets may go 12-4. I doubt it though.

The Jets snuck up on everyone last year. Early season games against teams like Tennessee and Detriot were much easier last year when the Jets were predicted to be amoung the worst teams in the league. It is much easier for lesser teams to get up for playoff teams.

The schedule is tougher for the entire AFC east this year, but especially for the Jets who go from playing two last place teams to two second place teams. Then again, neither KC nor Tennessee seem all that formidable anyway.

Pennington's injury risk is obvious. Optimists will say his health last year was a good sign for the future, while pessimists will say he can't go two healthy years in a row and he's due. Also brought up here is that the team in general was healthy.

I base my prediction for the Jets more on feel though. The Jets overachieved last year and there is really no other way around it. I'll admit the Patriots overachieved in '01, so I'm not saying the Jets don't have hope for the future. What I'm saying is that teams which overachieve tend to have a regression year the following season.

And for fun lets throw out this trend:

in 2003 the Fins finished 2nd in the AFC East at 10-6. the following season they went 4-12.

in 2004 the jets finished 2nd at 10-6. they also went 4-12 the following season.

in 2005 it was miami again, going 9-7 and finishing 2nd. they followed that with 6-10 last year.

Can the jets end the trend? i don't expect them to finish last, like the previous 3 second place teams did. I see them suffering a regression though. As a Pats fan, I just hope there's an overreaction to this regression which screws up the team going forward.

*edit* and some random thoughts:

RB was a weakness for the jets last year and getting Jones is a really good addition. It is unknown whether it makes the team "leagues better." Running backs are so heavily affected by schemes, the line, and so on that no one really knows. For instance i really hope that maroney will succeed by himself and with a new zone-blocking scheme, but I can't confidently say he will.

Watching the early season NE-NY game, my girlfriend had to walk out the room because it was such a mismatch. "the Jets are awful," she said. "they shouldn't be allowed on the same field." that had obviously changed by season's end and every team plays its bad games (NE-Miami for us), but I find it amusing nonetheless.

along those lines, NE was clearly better than NY and greatly improved this offseason. NE was good as expected last year while the jets overachieved while not dealing with nearly as many injuries as NE. I just don't see them getting any closer next year. damnit, i left the random trail and got back to my point.

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

It's just SO early to be going down this road, but okay, I'll jump in, with Skinnys, too...wins/losses...

ADPF

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New England 12-4

Wins: Buffalo Bills, at Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, at Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, at Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, at Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, at New York Giants

Losses: at New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, at Miami Dolphins, at Indianapolis Colts
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New Jersey 10-6

Wins: New England, Miami, Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, at Dallas, at Miami, Cleveland, at Tennessee, Kansas City

Losses: at Baltimore, at Buffalo, at NY Giants, Philadelphia, at Cincinnati, at New England
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Miami 9-7

Wins: at Washington, Dallas, NY Giants, Oakland, at Houston, at Cleveland, New England, Buffalo, at Buffalo

Losses: at NY Jets, at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati
-----------------------------------------------------------
Buffalo 5-11

Wins: NY Jets, Dallas, at Washington, at Cleveland, NY Giants

Losses: Denver, at Pittsburgh, Miami, at New England, Baltimore, at NY Jets, Cincinnati, at Miami, New England, at Jacksonville, at Philadelphia
-----------------------------------------------------------

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

I still say that the AFC East will sort out as follows:

Patriots
Bills
Jets
'Fins

I just don't see Pennington staying healthy... and without him, they are in real trouble on O.

I think that the Bills have been quietly rebuilding and will surprise some people this year... I believe that they could be in the playoff hunt (wildcard #6) up until week 14 or so.... and then just miss out to some other upstart team (Titans, maybe the Ravens?)... but they are, in my opinion taking a page from NE's playbook and rebuilding the "right" way.

I think it's tough to start predicting exact records... but I do think that we'll go 5 -1 (giving one to MIA in MIA) in the Division, with the poss. of going 6-0. I think that the Bills and Jets will split and that they'll go 3 - 3 in the div... and I think that the 'fins have a shot at one (us)... but will lose both to NYJ and BUFF.

Just my op... worth about as much as the next guys. We'll all get to see how it shakes up this Fall!

 

[Jacky Roberts]

It's just SO early to be going down this road, but okay, I'll jump in, with Skinnys, too...wins/losses...

ADPF

-----------------------------------------------------------
New England 12-4

Wins: Buffalo Bills, at Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, at Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, at Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, at Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, at New York Giants

Losses: at New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, at Miami Dolphins, at Indianapolis Colts
-----------------------------------------------------------
New Jersey 10-6

Wins: New England, Miami, Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, at Dallas, at Miami, Cleveland, at Tennessee, Kansas City

Losses: at Baltimore, at Buffalo, at NY Giants, Philadelphia, at Cincinnati, at New England
-----------------------------------------------------------
Miami 9-7

Wins: at Washington, Dallas, NY Giants, Oakland, at Houston, at Cleveland, New England, Buffalo, at Buffalo

Losses: at NY Jets, at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati
-----------------------------------------------------------
Buffalo 5-11

Wins: NY Jets, Dallas, at Washington, at Cleveland, NY Giants

Losses: Denver, at Pittsburgh, Miami, at New England, Baltimore, at NY Jets, Cincinnati, at Miami, New England, at Jacksonville, at Philadelphia
-----------------------------------------------------------

You think the Pats start out 0-2??

Patriots 12-4
Miami 9-7
Jets 8-8
Bills 7-9

 

[Born_a_Patriot]

14-2 sounds good to me if Brady doesn't become a stoner.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

It's just SO early to be going down this road, but okay, I'll jump in, with Skinnys, too...wins/losses...

ADPF

-----------------------------------------------------------
New England 12-4

Wins: Buffalo Bills, at Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, at Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, at Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, at Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, at New York Giants

Losses: at New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, at Miami Dolphins, at Indianapolis Colts
-----------------------------------------------------------
New Jersey 10-6

Wins: New England, Miami, Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, at Dallas, at Miami, Cleveland, at Tennessee, Kansas City

Losses: at Baltimore, at Buffalo, at NY Giants, Philadelphia, at Cincinnati, at New England
-----------------------------------------------------------
Miami 9-7

Wins: at Washington, Dallas, NY Giants, Oakland, at Houston, at Cleveland, New England, Buffalo, at Buffalo

Losses: at NY Jets, at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati
-----------------------------------------------------------
Buffalo 5-11

Wins: NY Jets, Dallas, at Washington, at Cleveland, NY Giants

Losses: Denver, at Pittsburgh, Miami, at New England, Baltimore, at NY Jets, Cincinnati, at Miami, New England, at Jacksonville, at Philadelphia
-----------------------------------------------------------

You've got the Dolphins starting 8-1 and finishing 1-6. Just thought that was interesting.

 

[Boston Jay]

Dolphins are iffy at best. I feel like the whole team is inconsistent. Lose to the Texans, beat the Pats, shut down Chicago, then get swept by Buffalo and NYJ? Hmmm.

I say
Pats 12-4/13-3 (I think they can beat Baltimore)
NYJ - 9-7/10-6 (depending on Chad's health. If he goes down then NYJ is in the cellar
Miami - 8-8 (but this hinges on the QB situation. Is Beck ready? Green coming? Culpepper done?)
Buffalo - 6-10

Big question marks for the other teams.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

Dolphins are iffy at best. I feel like the whole team is inconsistent. Lose to the Texans, beat the Pats, shut down Chicago, then get swept by Buffalo and NYJ? Hmmm.
I say
Pats 12-4/13-3 (I think they can beat Baltimore)
NYJ - 9-7/10-6 (depending on Chad's health. If he goes down then NYJ is in the cellar
Miami - 8-8 (but this hinges on the QB situation. Is Beck ready? Green coming? Culpepper done?)
Buffalo - 6-10

Big question marks for the other teams.

That's what's so frustrating when watching this team. You go from embarrassing the Bears on the road, but lose to the Bills at home in September. Miami rarely losses at home in Sept and that game was very tough to watch. Very good point, hopefully stability at the coaching position will change that.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Yo Water Boy,
Didn't you LOSE a bet that stipulated you'd NEVER post here again???

Here is your acceptance...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=170504&postcount=69

 

[brady199]

5-11, that's just laughable. What have the Bills done to make you think they are better than the Dolphins? How does the Dolphins' defense get no recognition from you guys when they were 4th in the NFL last year, single handedly won 6 football games and added Joey Porter?

Not to mention a Punt Returner.