AFC East Outlook

[Zeus]

The good news is that this week's results did a lot to clear up the muddle of possible tiebreaker scenarios in the AFC East. The bad news is that there was no help for NE. With a one game lead, the Patriots remain in the driver's seat, but they can no longer win a tiebreaker against the Dolphins.

Last week, we established that NE cannot win division or common opponents tiebreakers against Miami. Now they would lose a conference tiebreaker as well. Miami finished 2-2 against the NFC, while NE finished 3-1. If Miami and NE tie, Miami would have to have won one more conference game than NE. (Technically, Miami could also win based on division record if NE were to lose to Buffalo this week.)

The jets were swept by Miami and have 4 AFC East losses (worst that NE could do is 3-3).

So -

1. Miami wins any tiebreaker (two or three way) with NE or the jets.
2. NE wins any tiebreaker against the jets but loses any tiebreaker against Miami.
3. jets lose any tiebreaker with Miami or NE.

The Patriots have to beat the Dolphins outright (but could tie the jets) in order to win the division. The jets would have to beat both Miami and NE outright in order to win.

Remaining schedule:

NE: at Buffalo (5-8), Jacksonville (7-6), at Houston (6-7)

Miami: at Tennessee (6-7), Houston (6-7), Pittsburgh (6-7)

jets: Atlanta (6-7), at Indianapolis (13-0), Cincinnati (9-4)

I'm not so sure I agree with the assertion that the AFC is a weak division. Through 13 games, the AFC East and NFC East are the only divisions having three teams with seven or more wins. Miami is a tough, extremely well-coached team and has now gone 7-3 after a brutal 0-3 start. Even the despicable jets have won three in a row to claw back into contention (more for the wild card than the division).

It's a dogfight. It's not going to be easy for the Patriots who will have to play better, especially with 2 of 3 games on the road.

 

[supafly]

I know you said we couldn't win any tiebreakers with MIA, but I am going to throw one more scenario out there (not to question you)--just curious:

What if we win at BUF, while MIA loses at TEN? We'd go up 2 games with 2 to go, and MIA would be handed another AFC conference loss, also a common opponent loss. I take it we could then clinch with a win or a MIA loss in the last 2 games, right?

So what we're obviously needing this week is a win at BUF + MIA losing at TEN, then all we'd have to do is have 1 more win or 1 more MIA loss to clinch.

The thing that scares me is if we both continue to win, then we lose at HOU, MIA can win all the tiebreakers with a win hosting PIT--that sucks.

Oh well, one game at a time--gotta beat a scrappy BUF team on the road this wk!

 

[gmtaxi27]

I know you said we couldn't win any tiebreakers with MIA, but I am going to throw one more scenario out there (not to question you)--just curious:

What if we win at BUF, while MIA loses at TEN? We'd go up 2 games with 2 to go, and MIA would be handed another AFC conference loss, also a common opponent loss. I take it we could then clinch with a win or a MIA loss in the last 2 games, right?

So what we're obviously needing this week is a win at BUF + MIA losing at TEN, then all we'd have to do is have 1 more win or 1 more MIA loss to clinch.

The thing that scares me is if we both continue to win, then we lose at HOU, MIA can win all the tiebreakers with a win hosting PIT--that sucks.

Oh well, one game at a time--gotta beat a scrappy BUF team on the road this wk!

True but if we just win the next 2 games, we at least clinch a wild card spot, because we have tiebreakers over Jags, Jets, and Ravens.

The last game vs Houston will be a little less nerve racking if we know we have at least a wildcard berth to fall back on.