Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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Previous thread from earlier in the season.
Patriots
Short-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Hold)
I was really tempted to make the Pats a "Buy" but I need to see the Jets game first. The 6-3 record is right on schedule with a clunker at home, a beatdown on the road and a tough roadie that got away. All learning experiences that needed to happen.
Now the learning is over and every week is huge in determining the final grade. Beating the Jets on Thursday gives the Pats the upper hand on the division with a workable schedule the rest of the way. Losing to the Jets gives the Pats 4 conference losses and a losing hand with tie-breakers.
Long-term Rating = Buy (Previous = Buy)
No change to the long-term view. If anything, all the injuries this year gives the youngsters a little more experience (and the front office a little more evaluation time) than you might normally expect. Also, I'm liking the way the 2009 draft is shaping up if enough juniors declare. Could be a very good year to have a boat-load of picks stashed away.
Bills
Short-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Buy)
The Bills haven't stayed healthy, focused or consistent...the goals from my previous evaluation. That knocks them from their "Buy" rating. I'm not ready to "Sell" the Bills yet because I still like the players and the coaching staff. They have 3 of the next 4 at home with the only roadie being KC. That is a formula for getting well quickly. If they don't improve the quality of play over that stretch, their record won't matter much with a killer closing kick (at NYJ, at DEN, NE).
Long-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Hold)
I'm getting close to selling the Bills in the long-term because Edwards hasn't taken the next step in development as a QB. He needs to take care of business over the next month and play huge in December or else the Bills will need to examine their QB situation.
Jets
Short-term Rating = Sell (Previous = Hold)
The Jets would seem like an easy "Hold" or "Buy", but all the signs are there for a market correction. The Jets have fattened up on KC, STL and a struggling BUF squad, but the road turns much more difficult. A short-week roadie to NE, a physical TEN game on the road and a return home to face a DEN team looking to fight off SD...well, you get the idea. I'm cashing out now while the getting is good.
Long-term Rating = Sell (Previous = Sell)
No real change in the long-term fundamentals except that the new guys in 2008 have been OK but certainly not worth the coin they are making. Until Favre is gone and a replacement is put in place, the Jets will be living the nightmare the Packers were determined to avoid.
Dolphins
Short-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Sell)
If you ignored my advice and held on to your shares of the Fins, good for you. While I don't believe they will make the playoffs, they have a workable schedule that should allow them to finish strong...which can be a good indicator of success the following year. Given the expectations heading into 2008, even mentioning playoffs is a huge success. Just don't go overboard and buy in too much this year.
Long-term Rating = Buy (Previous = Buy)
This really depends on Brown's continued health and Pennington giving way to Henne going into 2009. The Fins still need some playmakers on defense, a possession receiver and some OL depth...but not as many many holes as you might expect for a rebuilding team. A lot of this rating depends on Henne, so if you aren't a fan then you should probably stay away.
Patriots
Short-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Hold)
I was really tempted to make the Pats a "Buy" but I need to see the Jets game first. The 6-3 record is right on schedule with a clunker at home, a beatdown on the road and a tough roadie that got away. All learning experiences that needed to happen.
Now the learning is over and every week is huge in determining the final grade. Beating the Jets on Thursday gives the Pats the upper hand on the division with a workable schedule the rest of the way. Losing to the Jets gives the Pats 4 conference losses and a losing hand with tie-breakers.
Long-term Rating = Buy (Previous = Buy)
No change to the long-term view. If anything, all the injuries this year gives the youngsters a little more experience (and the front office a little more evaluation time) than you might normally expect. Also, I'm liking the way the 2009 draft is shaping up if enough juniors declare. Could be a very good year to have a boat-load of picks stashed away.
Bills
Short-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Buy)
The Bills haven't stayed healthy, focused or consistent...the goals from my previous evaluation. That knocks them from their "Buy" rating. I'm not ready to "Sell" the Bills yet because I still like the players and the coaching staff. They have 3 of the next 4 at home with the only roadie being KC. That is a formula for getting well quickly. If they don't improve the quality of play over that stretch, their record won't matter much with a killer closing kick (at NYJ, at DEN, NE).
Long-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Hold)
I'm getting close to selling the Bills in the long-term because Edwards hasn't taken the next step in development as a QB. He needs to take care of business over the next month and play huge in December or else the Bills will need to examine their QB situation.
Jets
Short-term Rating = Sell (Previous = Hold)
The Jets would seem like an easy "Hold" or "Buy", but all the signs are there for a market correction. The Jets have fattened up on KC, STL and a struggling BUF squad, but the road turns much more difficult. A short-week roadie to NE, a physical TEN game on the road and a return home to face a DEN team looking to fight off SD...well, you get the idea. I'm cashing out now while the getting is good.
Long-term Rating = Sell (Previous = Sell)
No real change in the long-term fundamentals except that the new guys in 2008 have been OK but certainly not worth the coin they are making. Until Favre is gone and a replacement is put in place, the Jets will be living the nightmare the Packers were determined to avoid.
Dolphins
Short-term Rating = Hold (Previous = Sell)
If you ignored my advice and held on to your shares of the Fins, good for you. While I don't believe they will make the playoffs, they have a workable schedule that should allow them to finish strong...which can be a good indicator of success the following year. Given the expectations heading into 2008, even mentioning playoffs is a huge success. Just don't go overboard and buy in too much this year.
Long-term Rating = Buy (Previous = Buy)
This really depends on Brown's continued health and Pennington giving way to Henne going into 2009. The Fins still need some playmakers on defense, a possession receiver and some OL depth...but not as many many holes as you might expect for a rebuilding team. A lot of this rating depends on Henne, so if you aren't a fan then you should probably stay away.
