A Theory on Dillon

[solman]

Dillon is trying to get the Pats to release him now so he can test the FA market, and not have to wait until his option bonus is due. To do this, he wants to simultaneously communicate an ability to play, and a desire to retire.


Based on what Miguel reported the Colt troll said , Dillon would appear to have a $2.25M option bonus due some time between now and the start of the season.

The Pats are not going to want to pay that money (We'd basically be paying Dillon a total of nearly $10M for the next three years, and BB/SP don't think he's worth it [too old]).

If the option bonus were due right away, the Patriots would immediately release Dillon and take a $3,517,500 dead money hit. In this case, Dillon and his agent would have no need to say anything publicly. The Pats could cut Dillon and take the any consequent PR hit.

I therefore conclude that the option bonus is NOT due immediately. Until the Pats release Dillon (i.e. until the option bonus is due) the Pats are free to trade Dillon, and Dillon and his agent are not free to talk to other teams. (And we all know that NFL teams NEVER engage in tampering ).

If the Pats work out a trade for Dillon (either based on his current contract or based on a Dillon negotiation with a team selected by the Pats), their compensation (perhaps a 5th or 6th round pick) will subtract from the monetary compensation that Dillon's new team is willing to pay him.

By saying that he is ready to retire, team Dillon may believe that they make it more difficult for the Pats to effect a trade. (even thoguh the Pat's compensation would likely be conditional on Dillon playing for his new team).

However, if Dillon WANTS to play again but SAYS that he wants to retire, potential suitors could be scared away.

Therefore, Team Dillon needs to simultaneously communicate that he is able to play, but ready to retire.

 

[patsgo]

Dillon is trying to get the Pats to release him now so he can test the FA market, and not have to wait until his option bonus is due. To do this, he wants to simultaneously communicate an ability to play, and a desire to retire.


Based on what Miguel reported the Colt troll said , Dillon would appear to have a $2.25M option bonus due some time between now and the start of the season.

The Pats are not going to want to pay that money (We'd basically be paying Dillon a total of nearly $10M for the next three years, and BB/SP don't think he's worth it [too old]).

If the option bonus were due right away, the Patriots would immediately release Dillon and take a $3,517,500 dead money hit. In this case, Dillon and his agent would have no need to say anything publicly. The Pats could cut Dillon and take the any consequent PR hit.

I therefore conclude that the option bonus is NOT due immediately. Until the Pats release Dillon (i.e. until the option bonus is due) the Pats are free to trade Dillon, and Dillon and his agent are not free to talk to other teams. (And we all know that NFL teams NEVER engage in tampering ).

If the Pats work out a trade for Dillon (either based on his current contract or based on a Dillon negotiation with a team selected by the Pats), their compensation (perhaps a 5th or 6th round pick) will subtract from the monetary compensation that Dillon's new team is willing to pay him.

By saying that he is ready to retire, team Dillon may believe that they make it more difficult for the Pats to effect a trade. (even thoguh the Pat's compensation would likely be conditional on Dillon playing for his new team).

However, if Dillon WANTS to play again but SAYS that he wants to retire, potential suitors could be scared away.

Therefore, Team Dillon needs to simultaneously communicate that he is able to play, but ready to retire.

no one is going to trade for him because they would absorb his contrart end of story, even if the contrart wasnt a issue no one is going to give up anything for a 33 year old on the decline

 

[solman]

no one is going to trade for him because they would absorb his contrart end of story, even if the contrart wasnt a issue no one is going to give up anything for a 33 year old on the decline

If Dillon was released by some other team, wouldn't you give him a look?

Dillon is definitely not worth more than $3.2M/year for three years (what his current contract requires), but I think that paying him $2M for one year at this point would be a no brainer.

 

[patsgo]

If Dillon was released by some other team, wouldn't you give him a look?

Dillon is definitely not worth more than $3.2M/year for three years (what his current contract requires), but I think that paying him $2M for one year at this point would be a no brainer.

i didnt say that i said trade for him, realistically no one is going to pay him any where near what he was due to make so in all likelyhood hell retire, some one might give him amin. contract with incentives that is about it

 

[solman]

i didnt say that i said trade for him, realistically no one is going to pay him any where near what he was due to make so in all likelyhood hell retire, some one might give him amin. contract with incentives that is about it

I don't necessarily agree with this (I am continually impressed by the stupidity of some NFL front offices), but I agree that nobody SHOULD trade for his current contract.

Still, having exclusive rights to negotiate with Dillon DOES have value that can (and should) be exploited.

 

[patsgo]

I don't necessarily agree with this (I am continually impressed by the stupidity of some NFL front offices), but I agree that nobody SHOULD trade for his current contract.

Still, having exclusive rights to negotiate with Dillon DOES have value that can (and should) be exploited.

if they dont pay him the 4.4 they have no other choice except to release himso how can they still retain "value"?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Only his agent stated that the team has already agreed to release him on March 2nd. Which might indicate they have no choice in the matter either because that is when the option is due and the option did contain language that guaranteed it as salary if not picked up which may still exist.

The reason this may have all come out in advance of the 2nd could simply be because Corey is a proud man who prefers to spin this as retirement tugging at him and not the team saying he's not worth the money any more. If he was willing to stay for $2.5M they could have deferred the option again. But I think he is ambivalent enough about playing any more that it would have taken more than $2.5M in salary only (and only if he made it through what for us will be an extended TC and 5 pre season games looking really viable for 2007) to sway him. And he's simply not worth more knowing that. He's been ineffective/unreliable for the better part of two seasons while by all reports working hard and giving his best effort. Maybe 2004 sucked the life out of him, or maybe the ring just dulled his edge. It is what it is. I'm not all that concerned about replacing what he's been for the last two years, or upset at losing it. And if someone else wants to take a flyer on him, so be it. I kind of doubt they will be able to motivate him, but I can understand why in this market his agent is reluctant to roll over.

 

[patsgo]

Only his agent stated that the team has already agreed to release him on March 2nd. Which might indicate they have no choice in the matter either because that is when the option is due and the option did contain language that guaranteed it as salary if not picked up which may still exist.

The reason this may have all come out in advance of the 2nd could simply be because Corey is a proud man who prefers to spin this as retirement tugging at him and not the team saying he's not worth the money any more. If he was willing to stay for $2.5M they could have deferred the option again. But I think he is ambivalent enough about playing any more that it would have taken more than $2.5M in salary only (and only if he made it through what for us will be an extended TC and 5 pre season games looking really viable for 2007) to sway him. And he's simply not worth more knowing that. He's been ineffective/unreliable for the better part of two seasons while by all reports working hard and giving his best effort. Maybe 2004 sucked the life out of him, or maybe the ring just dulled his edge. It is what it is. I'm not all that concerned about replacing what he's been for the last two years, or upset at losing it. And if someone else wants to take a flyer on him, so be it. I kind of doubt they will be able to motivate him, but I can understand why in this market his agent is reluctant to roll over.

i agee , well said

 

[patfanken]

Right now I am confused. First of all IF he still wants to play, the Pats are the BEST team he can play for...PERIOD. Its a team that will be incontention for a ring. He likes the lockerroom and coaches, and most importantly, he is still VERY EFFECTIVE in a limited roll. He is a GREAT short yardage guy. He is a great guy to have in a GL situation. People seem to forget about what a productive year Dillon has had. He averaged just over 4ypc. He had at least 10 TDs, and that was playing against defenses who were stacked against the run.

Yes I agree that Dillon has slowed down and is no longer a guy who can carry the ball 350 times a year. I suspect that he knows it TOO. DOES HE really want to take that kind of beating at 32. I don't think so. IMHO his thought about retiring are just that.... an older guy tired after a LONG season. Don't forget, the Pats don't play a 16 game season. For the 3 years Dillon has played here they've averaged 18 games seasons. That's a lot more wear and tear on the body, even for young guys

So, its likely that Dillon, if he did want to still play, would want to split carries with a contending team. What you have to think is WHAT TEAM would want to pay $3-4MM/yr to have Dillon replicate what he did here. I don't think there would be many teams that want to pay that much to a guy who plays hurt, but has been hurt a lot in the last 2 years.

So I think he'd be smart to either retire like he said, or take the $2MM the Pats would pay him to keep on doing what he did this year. All the other speculation just doesn't make much sense.