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A statistical root canal

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SVN, Dec 4, 2008.

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  1. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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  2. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    he bemoans 8 of 16 on 3rd down (still means they made 8 stops) and heaps praise on the offense that was 1 of 13...........

    the guy is obviously starting with 'I like some body' and reverse-engineering things from there
  3. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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    Its review of the whole season so far.8-16 in the steelers game is just an example which happens in every game . he i guess is just citing an example. 1-13 was more for that game. We have been better on 3rd down offense overall
  4. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    On offense the NFL range for 3rd down percentage is 49% (Colts) to 25% (Raiders). The Pats rank 13th at 41% (68/165) - ironically, just ahead of Pittsburgh.

    On defense the range is from 30% (Ravens) to 49% (Colts - funny that they're best and worst in this category). The Pats rank 29th (67/150) with 45%, better than only the Bengals, Chiefs and Colts.

    The inability to convert third down on offense against the Steelers was an anomaly. The point about the Pats not being able to make stops on third down, which has been brought up on multiple threads, is a fact - and a huge concern that is in need of being addressed this off-season.

    NFL Stats
  5. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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    yes but iam sure the colts red zone D is rated much higher which why they are being kept in games . a classic case of bend but not break.
  6. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah, 3rd downs have been a weakness for the Pats' defense all year while a strength for the offense all year. I still think third down conversion percentages are the most underrated stats in the league.
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  7. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady On the Roster

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    #24 Jersey

    No doubt the ability to stay on the field or conversely to get off the field is as important as anything except maybe scoring.
  8. sieglo

    sieglo Rookie

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    Yeah, that was the missing piece of analysis in this article -- red zone offense and defense.
  9. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    And the Colts D has won two games by themselves this year, the Texans game and the Browns when defensive TDs late in the game made the difference.....
  10. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Agreed, but the red zone stats still fall a bit short in my opinion.

    Give up 3 FG in 4 attempts & that's 75 %.
    That's 9 points, or an average of 2.25 points per possession.

    But give up 2 TD & that's 50% - much better statistically than 75%.
    Yet it's more points (14), an average of 3.5 points per possession - almost 50% more than the first scenario.

    Rather than percentage of times a team scores, red zone stats for both offense and defense should be based on the average points per red zone possession.
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