These four posts seem to be the crux of the matter.
To me the Jets are tied to Pennington and his health (which applies to most teams and their starting QB). Think about it with a healthy Pennington they usually win 9 or 10 games without a healthy Pennington they win about 25% of their games.
So IMO if Chad stays healthy they win 9 or 10 games this season if isn't then I guess we'll find out if Clemens is ready.
Penny is a good QB, despite the noodle.
Simple explanation for what happened:
You finish last, and next year you play the last place teams.
You finish second, and next year you play the second-place teams.
That would make teams who are not truly improving, but merely treading water, bounce up and down in the standings.
Schedule impact.
Biggest problem for the Jets last year was stopping the run. They ranked #24 in the league in rushing yrds allowed and a dismal 27th overall in yards allowed per carry.
As far as I can tell, they haven't done anything to improve in that area and it will kill them in 2007.
They also had one of the luckiest seasons in recent NFL history with regard to injuries to starting players. They were unbelievably healthy all last season. That's unlikely to happen two years in a row.
The tools Mangini inherited and needed to adapt to his plans.
The "surprise" element that the Jets enjoyed last year is gone. Teams will be ready for them this year, but tI think the Jets will be prepared for that. Mangini saw what happened in 2002 the year after New England won their first SB and I think he's going to do a marvelous job of avoiding that trap.
However as someone said earlier, Pennington's health is key for the Jets.
Look for a big year from Brad Smith.
Mangini's ability to plan ahead and adapt is key. He's bringing in competition for DL slots, we must also remember most of his players were new to the 3-4, he got some impressive results out those folks.
Free Agency:
- Acquired: FB Darian Barnes (Miami); DE Kenyon Coleman (Dallas); QB Marques Tuiasosopo (Oakland); DE David Bowens (Miami); DE Andre Wadsworth (Arizona); DE Michael Haynes (Chicago)
- Lost: FB BJ Askew (Tampa Bay)
- Trade: RB Thomas Jones (Chicago)
Draft: CB Revis, ILB Harris, OT Bender, WR Stuckey.
UDFA:
Kyle Steffes, RB, North Dakota State; Jessie Allen, FB, Virginia Tech; Mark Zalewski, LB, Wisconsin; Brett Ratliff, QB, Utah; Leonard Peters, SS, Hawaii; Kevin McCulloch, LB, Cincinnati; Mike DeVito, DT, Maine; Matt King, DE, Maine; Andrew Wicker, OL, Ole Miss; Dominic Moran, OL, Western Michigan; Dustin Osborn, WR, Colorado State; Alvin Banks, RB, James Madison; Mike Dominguez, LS, Boise State; Charles Clark, S, Ole Miss; James Ihedigbo, S, UMass (try-out); Paul Thompson, WR/QB, Oklahoma; Caleb Hendrix, CB, Southern Miss
When you look at what Mangini is doing, it seems he and Tannenbaum are trying hard to build the same kind of relationship Belichick and Pioli enjoy. They have a team that played both Superbowl teams tough and nearly beat them early in the season when they where still learning the lessons Mangini was teaching, they did beat the Pats in Foxborough to give themselves some confidence. They are the #1 contender the Pats must face for the AFCE and Mangini has, on paper, improved his defensive backfield, ILB corps, RBs, and created strong competition on the DL.
Miami is a big question mark, but Buffalo looks a lot better on paper than I think people want to give them credit...since I want a tough division to make the Pats work for every yard, I'm hoping all three improve.
May paper-tiger ranking:
Pats
Jets
Bills
Dolphins.