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A mock that fits THIS year's needs: Cox, McClellin, Jenkins, Martin, trade out

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patfanken, Apr 12, 2012.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    #91 Jersey

    This is a little outside the box because it goes against what the Pats have normally done in recent drafts, which is accumulate massive amounts of them. And its worked. However this year I think we need to do the opposite.

    A number of people have done speculative 53 man rosters including myself. In every case its fairly easy to fill those rosters with a good mix of current players on the roster without any draft. I did one and could only see room for 3-4 rookies and STILL winding up cutting a lot of good players. To use all 7 picks would only mean that at least close to half are likely to end up on another team's roster come September.

    So I propose to limit my picks to 4 by trading up and trading out to 2013 and still get 3 players who can make an immediate (at least by mid season) impacts on the team. Using more than 4 picks will ultimately be a waste

    A few assumptions - Light retires, Waters doesn't, Carter is re-signed

    1. I look at our biggest need and I see it being S. However there isn't a S in this year's draft who would make a huge impact on our defense or be worthy to move up for.

    2. The next biggest need is an interior pass rusher who can push the pocket from either a 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT. There is one player who fits that description and that's Fletcher Cox. If he's available I'd go to the Cards who don't have a 2nd round pick and trade the 27 and 48 for the 13, and select Fletcher Cox. And for those of you who don't like this pick because you don't think he can play 2 gap. Bull puckie. Most college DLmen don't learn to 2 gap. The guy is 6'4 300lbs with 4.7 speed, and a good 3 cone time for his position. He can LEARN to 2 gap over time. In the mean time he can play an immediate important role in our defense

    3. Then with the 31 I trade down with either Cleveland who is trying to move up into the first round to get one of the 2nd tier QBs or St Louis who might want to get ahead of the Giants to grab Fleener. I should be able to get at least 3rd in the 2013 draft for that trade possibly a 2nd. Then with that pick early in the 2nd round I grab Shea McCellin. Another fast riser, he put his hand down as a DE or stand up as an OLB. A situational player this season and Andre Carter's understudy.

    4. Now comes pick #62 Lots of ways to go with this one. Here is one scenario. We take the #62 and the Pats 4th round pick plus Sergio Brown (a proven solid special teamer) and move up in a trade with the Eagles because Jenoris Jenkins will still be there and both Detroit and Cincinnati will be there ready to pounce Yes I think his fall will be that deep. He is NOT a good guy and is a serious risk. However his talent is just too great to pass up and the Pats locker room is as good a place for him to find stability as any in the league.

    5. Now with #92nd pick in the 3rd round the Pats can go a lot of ways positionaly but I think it would be best if the Pats went for their developmental FS and pick Markelle Martin

    So here is the Pats 2012 draft

    1. Cox - DE/DT
    2. McClellin DE/OLB
    3. Jenkins CB
    4. Martin FS
    5. A 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2013

    You then bring in McCourty and tell him that starting in OTA's he'll be working as the FS with the starting D. Jenkins and Dowling will be the starting outside CBs, while Arrington plays the slot and Chung plays the other S. Moore, Barrett, Cole and Martin provide depth.

    I'd rather Jenkins be a strong 6 footer, but you just can't deny Jenkins effectiveness against some of the best WRs in the SEC, and who are currently doing well in the NFL, like Julio Jones

    A second scenario in case Fletcher (as I fear) will land outside our reach in the top 10. We now swap our #31 and 62 and move up to #19 (Eagles) to pick Dontario Poe who is falling fast. This is a risk pick I WOULD take and like much more than Brockers because I think the kid just needs better coaching. Its no like people are saying his lack of production is a function of a lack of a motor, but a lack of skill. The Pats are a perfect place for him to learn under Pepper and Vince....and the upside is enormous.

    Now with the 27 and 47 still in the bag the Pats now have a lot of flexibility. Now if they want to trade down to the early part of 2nd they would definitely get a 2nd OR if they move down to later in the round they could pick up a first next year and a 3rd this year. So if they did the former. They could pick up Poe with the first trade. Trade down to the early 2nd and pick up McCellin as before. Get Jenkins with the 48. Get Martin with the 3rd and trade out of the 4th round pick for a 3rd next year

    That scenario would net:

    1. Poe DT/NT
    2. McClellin DE/OLB
    3. Jenkins CB
    4. Martin S
    5. 2013 2nd round pick
    6. 2013 3rd round pick

    These aren't all the players I would want, but I think they are the best players we can get in the positions we are going to draft. I see no reason to draft a RB, TE, WR, or OLman. What do you think
  2. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    I would not touch Dontari Poe with a ten foot pole. A classic case of weight room performance, or in Poe's case underwear olympics, does not translate on to the football field.

    I would rather trade down from the #31 overall selection, grab an additional third round draft pick in the top half of the third round, and select Josh Chapman, NT from Alabama. The combination of a Devon Still and Josh Chapman or Kendall Reyes and Josh Chapman far outweighs any trade up for Dontari Poe.

    As for the LSU defensive lineman prospect, I would trade up for Michael Brockers only if he slipped into the twenties.
  3. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    I am wary of Poe too, Tip, but for some reason I'm less worried about him long term than I am about Brockers. I've read reports about Brockers "motor" being questionable. I haven't hear that about Poe. Just about a lack of production that doesn't match the physical abilities. Well if the motor isn't an issue, then for me its just a matter of coaching. Coaching and time, and in the right environment, eventually you get a player who matches production with physical skills.

    With Poe I think the only risk is how much time it will take before you see potential reach production. I would say probably a year to get more than situational snaps out of him, and 2 before you see consistent production, and then by the 3rd you have an all pro DT/NT.

    With Brockers the ceiling may be slightly higher, but the floor is lower. I have no idea why people are so high on him. The clips I see on him aren't awe inspiring. He looks like a standard run of the mill run stopper...and we got a bunch of those. Mo Wilkerson looked better on tape than Brockers. What's the fuss.

    If someone can explain it to me, I'll change my second scenario from Poe to Brockers. IMHO they both will be there in the late teens. What did you think about the rest of it
  4. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    Which may be the reason why Bill Belichick invited Michael Brockers for a visit to the New England Patriots facility.
  5. State

    State Rookie

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    Poe got owned by a guard who won't even get a sniff from the NFL

    I agree with Poe, who reminds me of that guy the Jets traded up for from Kentucky, Robertson, that we obviously lured them into. But Poe's laziness is a killer. Character is king with the Patriots braintrust, which is why a lot of people are more prudent than I about Bruce Irvin.

    I'm not sure, Patchick, if that deal can get done without unloading both our firsts. I looked at the numbers, the point system, and the two firsts we have puts us at #11. I don't think going from #31 to #48 in addition to our first first we'll get it done.

    But you're right on as usual about everything else.

    And now we've got Bobby Carpenter! (My pet from years ago.) Life is good.
  6. SeymourTrophies

    SeymourTrophies Rookie

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    A guy as big as Poe should never need to do a spin move. Just physics (velocity x mass) alone should mean he can bull rush as he pleases, but you don't see him doing that. Someone dropped the Haynesworth reference in another thread. Sadly, it's looks true. Someone will fall in love with his athleticism, but he's underwhelming in games.

    In a search to guess WTH BB is going to do at OLB/DE, I remain puzzled. I was trying to go off of what JC showed at Florida that BB may have liked over Dunlap and the like, but JC was pretty underwhelming at Florida. He also bulked up before the draft and started to stand his ground against the run before going to Narnia (still hasn't returned:bricks:).
  7. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I doubt the Pats signed Gregory to a 3-year FA deal with the intent of cutting him before OTA's begin. Your draft scenario could still play out, but I think the end result would be Martin providing depth at safety and Jenkins bumping Arrington to CB depth/ST ace...which is where he belongs IMO.
  8. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    Very good job patfanken. We really have to hit the defense. Matt Light and Brian Waters haven't retired yet. I'm assuming they are both coming back. Our four backups on the OL are; Solder, Cannon, Gallery and Wendell. We don't even need a backup OL. The OL is stacked. TE is stacked. QB is stacked. I guess we could draft a rb or wr. But, I have confidence in Vereen coming back. We have a ton of veteran wr's. How much work is a rookie going to get? Probably not worth the aggravation. I'll have mine up this afternoon. Let me know what ya think.
  9. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    What you're selling, I'm not buying. The New England Patriots defense needs a player overhaul since only the following players are worthy of a roster spot:

    Vince Wilfork
    Kyle Love
    Brandon Deaderick
    Jonathan Fanene
    Rob Ninkovich
    Jerod Mayo
    Brandon Spikes
    Dane Fletcher
    Patrick Chung
    Devin McCourty
    Ras-I Dowling
    Kyle Arrington
    Sterling Moore

    Seven picks? The New England Patriots only have six picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2012
  10. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Check out the players you left off:
    Cunningham (24 yo)
    Brace (25)
    Pryor (26)
    Barrett (27)

    Are you saying these guys can't possibly improve, particularly with a return to the 3-4 and a normal offseason? Barrett was starting before he got hurt. Pryor was working into a nice sub DT role with Wright before he got hurt. If Cunningham and Brace (victims of the lockout and switch to the 4-3) were as useless as you imply, don't you think Belichick would have cut them loose by now? O'Connell, CJack and Price think so.

    Trevor Scott (28)
    Steve Gregory (29)

    Worst case has Scott keeping a roster spot warm for Andre Carter. Best case he is Vrabel 5th year redux. As for Gregory, you typically don't give camp bodies a $2.5M check and a 3-year contract.

    Not all of these guys will pan out, but none are old enough to pass judgement on their careers. Even including them, there is room for a starting DE, a virtually starting slot CB (upgrading Arrington) and a rush end to replace Mark Anderson.
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Great thoughts, and well-written.

    Unfortunately, CLE isn't going to work. They already have 2 first rounders and pick again at #22, where they are reportedly targeting a QB--possibly even Brandon Weeden.

    I love the thought of Cox, McClellin, and Martin.

    I hate the thought of Poe (not hate, but don't like it), and I HATE the thought of J.Jenkins.

    As great/smart of a poster as you are, you have to agree that Jenkins is likely off our board altogether. He is the exact opposite of the "Patriot way," in every form. The more time goes on, the more it is obvious that he is not our kind of targeted player.

    The latest reports are that he may likely slide into the 2nd round, and that "many teams have him off of their board altogether," according to 2 team executives. (one from the AFC, one from the NFC) Apparently, the latest news is that he admitted during the combine that he never even stopped smoking weed after getting kicked out of Florida, while playing for N.Alabama.

    For a guy who:

    1. Fathered 4 different kids to 3 different women by the age of his early-20's

    2. Been arrested 3 times for marijuana charges before the age of 21

    3. Was kicked out of a major college that has been more than willing to put up with LOTS of bullcrap

    4. Still kept smoking weed when his future was at a major crossroads after having to accept a position at Northern Alabama

    5. Was DUMB enough to admit it to all of the 32 teams at the combine

    6. Failed multiple drug tests, reportedly for another substance other than pot at one point too

    7. Is extremely high-maintenance and thinks the world of himself

    8. Doesn't seem to be the brightest bulb--very anti=NEP

    9. Will risk yet another high draft pick at the position of CB!!

    Janoris Jenkins “kept smoking” at North Alabama | ProFootballTalk

    I will wager any amount of money out there (that I can possibly afford) that Janoris Jenkins is NOT taken by Bill Belichick in the upcoming draft, with absolutely no worry whatsoever.
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2012
  12. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    Ron Brace - Bust, plain and simple
    Myron Pryor - Injury prone (has missed 21 games the last two seasons)
    Jermaine Cunningham - Missing in Action 2011 NFL Season
    Trevor Scott -1.5 sacks total the last two seasons
    Bobby Carpenter - Fourth different team in seven years
    Josh Barrett - Injury prone (has missed 27 games the last two seasons)
    Steve Gregory - Getting really desperate
    Sergio Brown - defensively worthless
    Will Allen - 33 year old relic
    Marquice Cole - special teams

    Jermaine Cunningham - 1 career sack
    Myron Pryor - 1 career sack

    Barrett, Cunningham, Pryor may be salvageable, but first they have to stay healthy. None of three aforementioned defensive players are game changers.
  13. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Couple of comments:
    - Guys who were injured have to stay healthy. Just like the guys who weren't injured. If any of them are chronic, I would expect the Pats to know and pink slips issued.

    - Re: Scott and Gregory...if you dismiss players who aren't productive in ill-fitting systems, you miss out on guys like Andre Carter.

    - Re: Gregory...if Belichick is giving out 3-year deals to guys who can't play, then the rest is moot.

    - There are guys who will be drafted in a couple of weeks who are close to the same age as Brace and Cunningham. They both were hurt by the lockout and scheme change and have an uphill battle to find their role, but they have every opportunity to win playing time (if they choose to take it).

    - The bottom of the defensive depth chart is made up of ST aces (Arrington, White, Niko, MalWilliams, etc). There are only about 17 defensive players that will get the vast majority of snaps (pending injury). The rest better be able to excel in the kicking game.

    Point is that if some of these players pan out, the defense has far fewer roster spots available than you were suggesting. If none of them work out, the defense is in trouble regardless of how many draft picks the Pats have.
  14. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    Training camp will resolve this issue.

    Trevor Scott does not resolve the outside pass rush issue from the 3-4 outside linebacker position.

    How did trading a third and fifth round draft pick to the Oakland Raiders for Derrick Burgess work out? Bill Belichick is not infallible. This signing stinks to high hell.

    Excuses, excuses. Jermaine Cunningham played 4-3 defensive end in college. Ron Brace is nothing more than a second round bust.

    Special teams aces - Slater, Cole, White.

    Lots of ifs. I don't see where a defensive pass rush is to be generated from.
  15. PatriotReign

    PatriotReign Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Barrett, Cunningham, and Brace are garbage. Pryor has been decent when he can actually stay on the field. Gregory and Scott are unknowns.
  16. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I think you may be heading towards the pessimistic side, Tip.

    While you are certainly right to question some of the talent level of these players, the odds are that at least a couple/few of them will work out better than you feel right now. It's basically the law of averages.

    You are correct in stating that the NEP defense is in need of an upgrade in some positions, but remember that they didn't experience too many losses this year either. Since the main weakness was secondary play, there's not too much reason to believe that several positions can't be upgraded and the rest of the positions will remain status quo.

    I think we've done this before, but I'm not seeing as many 'holes' as you are. While there is always improvement in most positions on any team, that just isn't very realistic.

    This would be my 'early' (Spring-pre draft assessment)--should be different come summer time:

    Let's say roughly 24-25 positions, just for argument's sake..They could obviously field a team right now, but there are positions that need an upgrade, so I'll highlight those (my personal opinions, some will get one more year of chance like Cunningham).

    Note these are not necessarily my 53 man roster predictions, just where we currently stand for positional upgrades (although no one will agree on all of the same upgrades).



    DL--Wilfork, Deaderick, Love, Fanane, Pryor, Brace, Carter, DRAFT = 8

    LB--Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Ninkovich, Tarpinian, Cunningham, Scott, White, M.Carter, DRAFT = 9

    CB/S---McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Allen, Cole, Chung, Gregory, Barrett, Brown, DRAFT = 11

    ST ONLY--Tarpinian, White, Cole, Brown (not all will make it)

    ---------------

    We're already up to 28 right now, and the only draft positions are at DL, OLB, and S (3 total).

    The list of players that I would want to improve is:

    NOTE*** We're also going to get into a grey area b/c it's obvious that some of these will be kept as 'projects' such as Tarpinian, M.Carter, etc---but I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and including any/all potential upgrades. Keep in mind that many will NOT be upgraded though.

    DL--Brace, Fanane, Pryor (realistically 2 of 3)
    LB--White, Tarpinian, Scott, M.Carter (realistically 2 of 4)
    CB/S--Brown, Barrett, Allen, Cole (realistically 2 of 4)

    ------------

    So, I'm getting approx. 6 players that "realistically" need upgrading. Even if you don't agree with certain players, (I did not include Cunningham, but I did include Brace AND Pryor) you can get the picture and meet somewhere in the middle with the numbers. Remember...we have to think realistically. I honestly think that BOTH Pryor and Fanane will still be here, but I put them in the 'upgrades' column anyway for argument's sake.

    That leaves 6 potential spots for improvement. If we are able to draft 3 players who can replace/upgrade, the number dwindles down to 3.

    The remaining 3 players can be hopefully looked at as camp cuts come down the stretch of the off-season in the summer TC.

    Obviously, not everyone who needs an upgrade will get one. But with the addition of some younger, faster players on the defensive side of the ball via the draft, we should be able to have a better defense than last year; also keeping in mind that the secondary was the main weak link, and should be better equipped via depth and competition.

    I'm still holding out for 3 productive contributing players (by mid-season, at least in situational reps on some level) to come via the draft.
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2012
  17. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    Thanks for the kind thoughts. You could be right about Cleveland. I was just trying to look for a trade down from 31 into the 30's. I think we lose McClellin if we trade any deeper than that

    At first glance, I agreed 100% with what you said. Then when I looked at it a bit deeper I thought, "what exactly are his "crimes". Is he a "bad" guy? Does he hang with gangs?.Is he making it "rain" at strip clubs Is he violent to others? Is he carrying guns? Is he out getting drunk? If all this is true, that by all means take him off the board. But if all this kid is guilty of is liking weed and girls, then he should be on your board, and worth the risk if you can get him at a substantial discount

    Now is he guilty of making a host of bad decisions. ABSOLUTELY. While you think it was dumb to admit all this at the combine, I see it as the "possibility" that's he's starting to grow up. By all reports he is working at being a parent to his children. I think its also a positive that he went back to school instead of declaring for the supplemental draft.

    Now, is he a RISK?- absolutely His poor decisions are going to cost him a lot of money...and rightfully so. HOWEVER "if" he drops to the middle or late into the 2nd and he is still on the board, THEN his talent makes him a "risk" worth taking.....IMHO

    Again this is just a needs scenario where one 2nd round pick immediately improves us at 2 positions. We get a top cover corner and improve the S position by adding McCourty (or Dowling if you prefer) . It's a bonus when a 2nd round pick can immediately improve you at ONE position let alone 2.

    At any rate, I do admit there are a lot of assumptions that have to occur for this to happen. He has to drop to at least the mid-2nd round. He has to have convinced the brain trust that he is going to take this opportunity seriously. he Pats have to think he's NOT truly a "bad guy" And he has to have convinced the brain trust that he really IS a top 10 talent on the field.

    BOTTOM LINE - In the mid to late part of the 2nd round, I think he'd be a good choice.
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2012
  18. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    I'll leave it to Belichick to decide what he thinks of Jenkins.

    As always, it will come down to whether Jenkins can help the team or not. I think he can.

    Gronkowski parties pretty hard, and no one makes much a deal about that. The reality is that alcohol is way worse for his body than marijuana would be.

    So it comes down to Jenkins being dumb for breaking the rules, and nothing more. If the Patriots think they can reign him in, like Hernandez, they will get a steal.

    I guarantee that there are probably a dozen kids going in the first two rounds who have the same habits as Jenkins. Or more. These are twenty year olds we're talking about.

    At the end of round 1, you're probably talking about a 60% success rate in drafting. In round two, it falls between 30-50 depending where you are. I would say there is about a 90% chance Jenkins is a beast if he keeps his head on straight.

    So would you rather flip a coin on a player w/ decent intangibles but whose game you can't project? Or roll the dice on a potential pro bowler who you know will be a stud if you can mold his character? You're making a risk either way.

    To rule one guy out when his talent is far superior to what will be drafted around him is foolish, especially given the difference between him and a lot of 21 years olds is that he got caught doing these things, and they didn't.

    The two best non first round Patriot picks in recent years were a pot smoker and a party animal. If poor judgement in his social life is Jenkins worst problem, he's still on the Pats board.
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2012
  19. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    Shawn Springs says good morning.

    And when did Malodorous Williams become a ST "ace"?
    I don't even want Matt Slater on this team, never mind this bum.
  20. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Excellent thinking on this, very well thought out indeed.

    I agree with you 100% in targeting Arizona as a potential trade partner. I kind of wish we had a 7th rounder we could throw in as well if they need a little extra.

    If BB does go up and grab one of the big DTs , then I agree that #31 gets put on auction. Hopefully he can get another second in this draft and a first next year.
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