A look back at Week 6-9. Figuring out the problem may help to measure this team

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Going back to the week after the infamous Browns game last year, here are the total points scored by the Patriots in each game, leading up to last week:

39, 31, 45, 45, 36, 31, 34, 38, 21, 38, 35, 31, 31, 30, 20, 17, 20, 37, 34, 38, 31, 34, 41, 27, 49, 45

Over that span, the Patriots have averaged 33.76 points per game.

They have scored at least 30 points in 21 of 26 games.

They have scored at least three touchdowns in 23 of 26 games.

The only games where they did not score at least three touchdowns, and where they fell significantly short of their normal output, were weeks 6-9 this season.

Much of the unadmitted fear about Sunday's game concerns not only the defense, but also the Patriots offense. It comes from both the playoff loss to the Jets last year (chalked up to poor play in the biggest games), and the three consecutive subpar games this year (where we faced both Pittsburgh and the Giants- two teams who are perceived to be similar to Baltimore in that they have a strong pass rush and play physical.)

But is the latter point justified? Was there a reason why the offense was out of sync against Dallas, Pittsburgh, and the Giants, or was it the defenses themselves? The pattern of scores, which I posted above, suggests that this had more to do with an internal problem or injury than with the opponent's style of defense.

I welcome you to speculate on this, and whether you think there is a defense that has been able to shut down a healthy Patriots team yet, with the exception of the Jets debacle last year.

 

[Uncle Rico]

It was Haynesworth's fault.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Our offense has been healthy all season. Brady missed throws he shouldn't have vs NYG and DAL and PIT dominated the clock and forced us to press offensively (which is ok vs MIA/BUF but not the top defense).

 

[Patspsycho]

I welcome you to speculate on this, and whether you think there is a defense that has been able to shut down a healthy Patriots team yet, with the exception of the Jets debacle last year.

That was the period where Brady allegedly had tennis elbow or a similar injury. What was his passer rating in those three games? I'd bet it was low.

 

[BelichickFan]

That three week period was when Brady had the bone bruise and it was also in the period Hernandez was playing but not yet 100% from his MCL sprain.

I'm not making excuses and someone may come up with something far better but Brady has been better since. Two of the three (Dallas, NYG) were also 2 of the 3 games in which Brady threw multiple INT. Not coincidentally we're 0-3 this year when he throws 2 or more INT and 14-0 when he doesn't.

 

[jah]

That three week period was when Brady had the bone bruise and it was also in the period Hernandez was playing but not yet 100% from his MCL sprain.

I'm not making excuses and someone may come up with something far better but Brady has been better since. Two of the three (Dallas, NYG) were also 2 of the 3 games in which Brady threw multiple INT. Not coincidentally we're 0-3 this year when he throws 2 or more INT and 14-0 when he doesn't.

but we beat Dallas.

 

[JDot]

but we beat Dallas.

That was the game Brady injured his elbow apparently.

 

[Double TE]

This is interesting.

#1) Because we played good teams
#2) These teams had good running games
#3) Brady was just not as crisp

I am hopeful its not a prelude of things to come vs. the Ravens. I also recall the Pats were slow starters and really came on in the 2nd half for several games. Cannot do that vs. the Ravens.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

we're 0-3 this year when he throws 2 or more INT.

No, Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots - Box Score - October 16, 2011 - ESPN

And everyone is hurt, this is a short season and that is not a legit excuse for losing 2/3. Also he had a 100 rating and no picks vs PIT.

 

[Tunescribe]

Our offense has been healthy all season.

I think lost in the mix here is all the shuffling done on the offensive line because of injuries to Vollmer, Mankins, Connolly, etc. Hard to tell what impact that really has had, for which Dante Scarnecchia deserves a ton of credit.

 

[PatsSox363804]

The Steelers game was all about their offense owning time of possession but even with that we still shot ourselves in the foot if you look at the drive charts:

First drive opens with an 8 yard completion, then green ellis loses a yard and we miss the third down pass. Key there is the 1 yard loss, obviously, because it limited the next play call.

Second drive we had 1st and 10 at the Steeler 43. Then a penalty, 2 incomplete passes, and a Woodley sack on third down.

Third drive was a TD on a short field after the Guyton pick

Fourth drive we had 1st and 10 at the Pittsburgh 30. Woodley gets another sack, we kick a field goal. Woodley killed us this game.

Fifth drive we had 3rd and 8 and Brady hit Gronkowski for 7, punt.

Sixth drive we had 1st and 10 from the Pitt 24. Another penalty knocks us back 5. Gostkowski misses a field goal.

Seventh drive we didnt do much and punted after 6 plays.

Eighth drive was a TD. This was the one where Belichick should have challenged which would have saved almost 2 minutes on the clock.

Ninth drive was the sack/fumble on the first play.

so to review we had 9 drives:

1 was the end of the game sack

3 were scoring drives

1 was a missed field goal

3 drives where we didn't do anything

1 drive that stalled in Pittsburgh territory

out of 9 drives, and really 8, we were on their side of the field 5 times. If Gostkowski doesnt miss the field goal its 23-20 heading into the last drive.

The other 2 games were all turnovers. -2 against both the Giants and Cowboys.