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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Metaphors, Oct 16, 2009.

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  1. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    If we ignore the Buffalo game (a common weekly phrase in upstate NY) and just begin with a 1-0 record, the Pats are at the quarter pole. Good time to take stock and look ahead:

    1st Quarter (2-2)
    - 2 at home, 2 on the road
    - All against top 10 teams
    - 3 top 10 defenses
    - 2 top 10 offenses
    - All young quarterbacks

    Held serve at home, close games on the road, all against good competition. I guess the record is understandable, but neither of the losses were good ones. I would be seriously nervous if this were the final stretch. Luckily it isn't.

    2nd Quarter
    - 2 at home, 1 neutral, 1 bye
    - None against top 16 teams
    - 1 top 10 defense
    - 2 average offenses
    - 1 vet QB, 1 youngster and whatever the Bucs throw out

    The Pats spend the next month without stepping into an opposing stadium. In the only "away" game, the Pats get home weather (100% chance of chilly rain) and fan (watch Family Guy...Pats are huge in England) advantage. Miami is always tricky, but the Pats will be coming off a bye while the Fins will playing their 2nd straight tough division roadie. If the Pats aren't 6-2 at halftime, something is seriously wrong.

    3rd Quarter
    - 1 at home, 3 on the road
    - 3 against top 10 teams
    - 2 top 5 offenses
    - 3 top 10 defenses
    - 2 Pro Bowl QBs and 2 youngsters

    The meat of the schedule. All of the opponents have interesting tie-breaker implications with the Jets...can't get swept by the Jets, the Jets have already lost to the Saints, the Jets will likely face a disinterested Colts team later in the year and a loss to the Fins probably results in a 4-2 division record tie. Have to beat the Jets at home and get at least one of the road games.

    4th Quarter
    - 2 at home, 2 on the road
    - None against top 20 teams
    - 1 top 15 offense
    - 1 top 15 defense
    - All vet QBs

    None of these opponents will be thinking of playoffs and some of them will be answering questions about moving to LA or Canada. A perfect road to the playoffs...opponents just competent enough to keep you on your toes, but not good enough to beat you (besides the "any given Sunday" thing).

    So the schedule sets up to have a 12-4 Pats team entering the playoffs on a 4+ game winning streak. Likely not a #1 seed (Colts should sleepwalk to 13-14 wins). All things considered, not a super fantastic outlook and anything can still happen but certainly enough optimism to stay off the ledge.
     
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Okay, who forgot to send Metaphors the memo? These damned optimistic threads are just going to drag this forum down in controversy. :enranged:
     
  3. ricogatenby99

    ricogatenby99 Practice Squad Player

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    Damn right the pats are big in England :)

    In a weeks time I will be making the trip to London, Cannot wait peepz.

    They way I see it, the jets are 3-2 aswell, so aslong as we go at least 9-2 from now on, and beat the Jets, the playoffs are certain.
     
  4. tedy hagler

    tedy hagler Practice Squad Player

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    Good work. I see 12-4 as quite possible. If we go the dreaded 11-5 again, Colts, Saints and Miami at home are the loss games.

    If we had gotten out of Denver 4-1 . . .
     
  5. NovaScotiaPatsFan

    NovaScotiaPatsFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    we're dooooooooooooooooooooooooomed!!! Dooooooooooomed I tells ya!
     
  6. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Although I don't want to jinx it, but the Pats' schedule on its face isn't that hard the rest of the way. If the Pats can get through their November schedule with only one or two losses, they should be in very good shape to have 11 or 12 wins barring injuries or just a collapse.
     
  7. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Before the season started I felt the Pats could go 12-4 - although I will say I was shading towards 11-5 after Seymour was traded. I didn't break it down into quarters of the season the way Metaphors did, but by divisions.

    AFC East: one loss; probably against the Dolphins, or possibly the Jets
    AFC South: one loss; probably against the Colts, or possibly the Titans
    NFC South: one loss; could be against anyone except the Bucs
    At large: one more loss whether it be against one of the two 2nd place teams, another one of the teams mentioned above, or one of those unexpected losses when a team just comes out flat.

    I think the preseason talk of 14-2 was a bit unrealistic - but I also think the recent predictions by some of an 8-8 season is even more unrealistic. Right now I still think 12-4 is the most likely outcome even though that means the Pats will have to go 9-2 for that to happen; if not 12-4, then the next most likely outcome would be one additional loss, which would give the Pats an 11-5 record.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2009
  8. JSn

    JSn Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think the most worrisome games on our schedule are the fish and that's been my position all along. Their defense has some weak spots, but we're very fortunate to be playing them well after Brady has had time to get it together. If he's not back by then, I don't know when he will be. Sorting out the #3 receiver is pretty important in that.

    I think we will drop one to the Fins and will likely struggle against the Colts.

    I think we're going to have a good game against the Saints and I think that game could be the one that matters most when the standings are mathed out in December/January.

    12-4 is very realistic, but 11-5 probably means the Saints got us and we're praying for another team to save our butts again.
     
  9. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Granted the Pats missed the playoffs last year with an 11-5 record last year, but keep in mind that was the first time that happened in the NFL in what, twenty years or something like that? Obviously you want to avoid any chance of that happening and the nuances of a tie breaker, and 12-4 is preferable to 11-5 for multiple reasons, but I seriously doubt that an 11-5 team will not make the playoffs in back-to-back years.

    To me the bigger concerns with finishing 11-5 rather than 12-4 is that it probably means wild card rather than division winner, and playing on the road rather than playing at home.
     
  10. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    I started this thread because I was tired of hearing how dominant the Giants and Colts were, while the Pats and Packers (just to pick a similar team) are in trouble.

    Giants:
    - 6 pt. win against Skins at home
    - 2 pt. win against over-rated Cowboys
    - Blowouts against Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders

    Colts:
    - 2 pt. win against Jags at home
    - 4 pt. win after being dominated by Fins
    - Blowouts against Cards, Hawks (injured Hasselbeck) and Titans

    They have played 1 legit opponent each and they easily could have lost those games. They each opened with lackluster wins and have been on cruise control for the last 3 weeks against poor competition. In the Giants case, against historically poor competition.

    In the next month, the Giants face NO, Philly and SD. Let's listen to the opinions on the G-men and Pats after this stretch. The point is that the Giants or Pats won't be significantly different than how they are now. They will just look that way based on the competition they face...and the "draw a final conclusion after every game" crowd will see the world completely different from how they do now.

    I wish the Colts had a similar story, but unfortunately they don't. Between their division (6 games), the NFC west (4 games) and the bottom of the AFC east (Buffalo), the Colts get 11 wins just for signing their name on the schedule.
     
  11. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    The next 2 games are absolute must-wins. Can't take them for granted. But win those 2 and we are in good shape.

    Miami is sneaking back into the race. After their bye they have a very difficult 3 game stretch (NO, @ NYJ, @ NE), if they can somehow take 2 of 3 there, the rest of their schedule is quite favorable (only 2 teams with winning records, and there's always an outside chance Pittsburgh could have nothing to play for on that last week. Unlikely with Cinci and Balti to deal with but you never know).

    The Jets also have a very favorable schedule and Indy/Cincy are late in the season. Indy typically lays down once they clinch so that could pose a problem for us. Obviously, the rematch with them is another must-win.

    Normally I'd say there's nothing to worry about in terms of getting to the postseason, but after going 11-5 and missing out last year it's hard to relax.
     
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't see why the colts and giants are mentioned. They are the elite teams (with the saints, broncos and minny) and we are in the playoff mix, with a likely 12-4 or 11-5 finish.
    ===========================================================

    We have a tough five game stretch after the bye. We shouldn't lose any outside of those; but anything can happen. I see it as

    current 3-2
    5 games after the bye 2-3
    other games 6-0
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2009
  13. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good points.

    My head will implode if I have to read a spate of articles in January about how the Pats are the one and only team to have gone 11-5 and missed the playoffs twice, esp 2 yrs in a row. Rest assured, EVERY single pundit would write an article about it during the playoff season.
     
  14. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Patriots struggle against the Dolphins almost every year, and a split there is certainly not out of the question. People are acting as if this is the 2007 team when, right now, it's not even as good as the 2008 team. This team plays an offense that is built around the quarterback and, right now, the quarterback is struggling. Until that changes, this team will be very capable of losing against every team it plays.

    Buffalo and Tampa should be pretty much marked down as "wins". Every other team on the schedule is more than capable of beating the Patriots that we've seen playing through 5 games this season.
     
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree that the patriots we have seen so far are capable of losing to almost anyone. If there are no improvements, I think this is teams could be 8-8. But I do expect improvement on both sides of the ball.

    For example, it wll be good to see Mayo and Seau lining up in the 3-4 for some of the game. Ten days ago, it was Guyton in the 4-3 with no effective options in the 3-4. I also expect Brady to be improved coming out of the bye. Perhaps not producing at an all-pro level, but improved nontheless.

     
  16. cavtroop

    cavtroop 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think we don't have enough info yet to prognosticate on the rest of the year.

    We will after this game against TEN, though. If we don't win by a TD+, I'm going to be worried about the rest of the year. Everyone has beat up on TEN, and I fully expect us to, also. We'll see how it plays out though.
     
  17. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    I mentioned them because if you put this Pats team against the opponents on their schedule, they are likely 5-0 as well, Brady and his receivers would likely appear to be "on the same page" and the comparisons to 2007 would be "striking" instead of "unfair".

    My point is that the perception of a team is greatly influenced by their competition. The Colts and Giants are 1-2 in most power rankings (for what that is worth) but both were "uneven" in their 1st two games and "dominant" since against below average to very poor teams.

    Not putting down the Colts and Giants. They beat the teams on their schedule, which is all the league allows them to do. Just saying that the "facts" about teams today based on a difficult/easy segment of the schedule will likely be very different from the "facts" later in the season.
     
  18. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Jeesh, your like the voice of reason. How dare you try and bring that logic to a message board.

    :youtheman:
     
  19. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    the only reason i'm not jumping all over this attempt at guessing what's going to happen 10 weeks from now is that it's at least a positive thread after all the negativity we've had out here...

    ...so, yeah, go for it...12--4, four game winning streak, rocking into the playoffs or whatever...i'll sign up for that program!
     
  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Patriots almost lost to the Bills. The Patriots have only looked "on the same page" for about 7 minutes of the season outside of the Atlanta game. Brady is missing throws to every receiver and every receiver is dropping passes Despite the way the Patriots have used the inactive list, Galloway is certainly not the only receiver that Brady is not in sync with, every receiver fits that description. The problem hasn't been the opposition.
     
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