A Fun Game: WR/Passing Game Production Breakdown

[Ian]

I started the other Welker thread, but I came up with an interesting thought and would love to have some people play along a bit since realistically it helps to get a better feel for trying to really get a handle on the team's issues with the passing game.

Based on a full season, Brady finished with the following passing stats:

401 completions for 5235 yards and 39 touchdowns

The year before he finished 324 completions for 3900 yards and 36 touchdowns

Here's a quick link to each year and how it broke down for each receiver:

2011 Patriots Stats

2010 Patriots Stats

I'd like to see people create your prediction for next season based on catches and yards, touchdowns, etc. you expect next year's group to have. My feeling is this year was a record breaking one and I expect Brady probably to come in closer to 4,700-4,800 yards based on the fact that I think with a full offseason everyone collectively should be a little bit better defensively next year.

So if you take that total, along with say 350 completions, create your list of receivers (including runningbacks, tight ends, etc.) and throw in what you expect in terms of production. I figure for those who just want to throw names out there - especially in lieu of not having Welker - it will be a fun exercise to try and figure out where his production would be replaced. Also include your predicted free agents, or if you're not sure, just do ? marks.

In other words, you would list it like this:

Gronkowski - xxxx-yards XX TD's
Hernandez - XXX-yards X TD's
? - xxx-yards, xx TD's
? - xxx-yards xx TD's
Branch - xxx-yards x TD's
Edelman - XXX-yards x TD's
Ochocinco - xxx-yards x TD's
Woodhead - XXX-yards X TD's
Ridley - XXX-yards X TD's
? - XXX-yards
? - XXX-yards

Obviously replacing the XXX's with your own #'s, and including your own predicted players on your depth chart.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

I wish I had the time to play this game right now. YAC across the league was high last year, and that trend should continue as long as there are so few padded practices. The Pats were one of the best at YAC because Brady puts the ball where it can be caught in stride and the Pats receivers and TEs were exceptional in that area. I think that is pretty amazing considering how teams were able to play defense because of the Pat's total lack of a deep threat. I believe that if the Pats keep WWW and get a legitimate deep threat, their YAC will increase dramatically.

Even with the increase in YAC, I don't expect Brady to to break 5K yards, as a deep threat will really open up the running game. I also expect the production from Vereen and Ridley to increase significantly. The Pats may not get as many yards, but they'll probably score more points and have less turnovers.

 

[borg]

Brady's passing yards will be down considerably because...

1) In '11, because of the lockout/condensed offseason, defenses were much further behind in preparation/game readiness....leading Brady's multiple 400-500 yd games. I expect defenses in '12 to be more up to speed going into the season

2) I expect the Patriots defense to be a much better unit....creating more 4th down situations. The result will be a New England offense that will be able to lean on its running game more while working the clock.

3) As Brady advances in years, BB and JM may try to preserve Tom by limiting passes=hits. Having an old timer chuch it 45 times a game has consequences....

Conclusion:
Brady...4500 yds...36 TDs
Gronk....80/1100/11
Hernandez...52/745/7
Welker.....85/1000/6
**Lloyd** ....62/840/6
Branch...15/200/1
*Rookie WR*....15/150/1
Ridley...20/180/2
Vareen...35/250/2

 

[patsinthesnow]

Gronkowski 76 receptions- 1100-yards 16 TD's 14.5ypc
Hernandez 78 receptions- 1000-yards 9 TD's 12.8ypc
Welker 105 receptions-1100 yards, 8 TD's 10.5ypc
B. Lloyd - 66 receptions-1000-yards 7 TD's 15.1ypc
S. Hill - 35 receptions-650-yards 8 TD's 18.6ypc
Branch - 8 receptions-100-yards 1 TD's 12.5ypc
Edelman - 4 receptions-50-yards 0 TD's 12.5ypc
Woodhead - 25 receptions-300-yards 1 TD's 12ypc
Ridley - 2 receptions-40-yards 0 TD's
Vereen - 2 catches-30-yards 0 TDs
FB - 1 catch 15-yards 0 TDs

Brady's stats: 400 comp. 550 attempts 73% comp pct. 5,370 yards, 50 TDs, 7 INTs

The Greatest offense ever waits on the bye week during the playoffs on their 16-0 regular season record.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Welker 90 rec 1050 yards 6 TD's
Gronk 83 rec 1120 yards 12 TD's
hernandez 65 rec 850 yards 7 TD's
branch 43 rec 600 yards 3 TD's
rookie WR 33 rec 500 yards 1 TD
woodhead 22 rec 200 yards 0 TD
Ridley 12 rec 190 yards 0 TD
Vereen 4 rec 20 yards 0 TD
BJGE 2 rec 10 yards 0 TD


Brady 354 comp 532 att 4540 yards 29 TD's 6 INT's

 

[BlueThunder]

Gronkowski 76 receptions- 1100-yards 16 TD's 14.5ypc
Hernandez 78 receptions- 1000-yards 9 TD's 12.8ypc
Welker 105 receptions-1100 yards, 8 TD's 10.5ypc
B. Lloyd - 66 receptions-1000-yards 7 TD's 15.1ypc
S. Hill - 35 receptions-650-yards 8 TD's 18.6ypc
Branch - 8 receptions-100-yards 1 TD's 12.5ypc
Edelman - 4 receptions-50-yards 0 TD's 12.5ypc
Woodhead - 25 receptions-300-yards 1 TD's 12ypc
Ridley - 2 receptions-40-yards 0 TD's
Vereen - 2 catches-30-yards 0 TDs
FB - 1 catch 15-yards 0 TDs

Brady's stats: 400 comp. 550 attempts 73% comp pct. 5,370 yards, 50 TDs, 7 INTs

The Greatest offense ever waits on the bye week during the playoffs on their 16-0 regular season record.

Has there ever been a team with FOUR 1000yd receivers??????


Edit: Google is your friend-

The 1981 Chargers actually had *4* 1000-yard players. Muncie, Joiner, and Winslow had 1000 yards. Wes Chandler had 857 yards, but he came in during the season with a trade from New Orleans, but his season total across both teams was over 1000.

 

[MoneyFX]

Wallace: 71 rec, 1257 yds, 10 TDs, 17.7 ypc
Welker: 103 rec, 1112 yds, 7 TDs 10.8 ypc
Gronkowski: 72 rec, 850 yds, 13 TDs, 11 ypc
Hernandez: 65 rec, 748 yds, 8 TDs, 11.5 ypc
Branch: 45 rec, 540 yds, 4 TDs, 12 ypc
Woodhead: 23 rec, 225 yds, 2 TDs, 9.8 ypc
Green-Ellis: 10 rec, 70 yds, 0 TDs, 7 ypc
Edelman: 3 rec, 40 yds, 0 TDs, 13.3 ypc
Ridley: 2 rec, 9 yds, 0 TDs, 4.5 ypc

Brady: 394 comp, 4851 yds, 44 TDs, 11 INTs

I believe Mike Wallace won't be with the Steelers and he'll be on the Pats, despite his price.