A Few More Stats Thoughts

[BelichickFan]

Denver is 2nd in rushing yards allowed. But 15th in Yards per Rush.
Denver is 29th in passing yards allowed. But 4th in Yards per attempt.

Very strange and a little hard to figure out.

I can't find scoring by quarter anywhere but Plummer has 13 TD in the first half and 5 TD in the second half. And Bell/Anderson have about the same number of TDs in the first half and second half (this is halves of games, not halves of the season).

The Broncos' success looks like it's almost nothing but being good front runers. Get this - Plummer has thrown only 20 passes all season when down by 8 points or more. No wonder he hasn't been picked off at all, he's been protected by a good defense and an offense that can use that defense to get ahead and put the opposing defense into a guessing game situation.

Plummer has 3 TD in the first quarter and 10 TD in the second. And only 5 total in the second half. Remarkable, 5 TD in 16 second halves.

What does this say ? The Broncos aren't a great team in the first quarter but they have been very good in the second. Then they have a lead and can shut it down in the second half.

Which leads to one main point. Which can be said about most games but is extra significant here. Stop their run. Get a lead. Make Plummer bring them back. And for God's sake, don't turn the ball over. Plummer has been put in a nice, front running situation and has executed well from it. If the Patriots' run defense is stout in the first quarter we have a decent chance at a lead and then we'll see if Jake is Jake the Snake or Jake the Fake.

 

[mgteich]

Denver gets ahead and gives up a lot of passing yardage. In the prevent, they give up a lot of short passes.

Denver is 2nd in rushing yards allowed. But 15th in Yards per Rush.
Denver is 29th in passing yards allowed. But 4th in Yards per attempt.

Very strange and a little hard to figure out.

I can't find scoring by quarter anywhere but Plummer has 13 TD in the first half and 5 TD in the second half. And Bell/Anderson have about the same number of TDs in the first half and second half (this is halves of games, not halves of the season).

The Broncos' success looks like it's almost nothing but being good front runers. Get this - Plummer has thrown only 20 passes all season when down by 8 points or more. No wonder he hasn't been picked off at all, he's been protected by a good defense and an offense that can use that defense to get ahead and put the opposing defense into a guessing game situation.

Plummer has 3 TD in the first quarter and 10 TD in the second. And only 5 total in the second half. Remarkable, 5 TD in 16 second halves.

What does this say ? The Broncos aren't a great team in the first quarter but they have been very good in the second. Then they have a lead and can shut it down in the second half.

Which leads to one main point. Which can be said about most games but is extra significant here. Stop their run. Get a lead. Make Plummer bring them back. And for God's sake, don't turn the ball over. Plummer has been put in a nice, front running situation and has executed well from it. If the Patriots' run defense is stout in the first quarter we have a decent chance at a lead and then we'll see if Jake is Jake the Snake or Jake the Fake.

 

[mosi]

I look at Denver and I see consistency. This is a solid and tough team. The trashing Denver laid on San Diego said a lot about this team.

But the key to beating this team, like most teams, is to shut down the running game. Do this and you have a shot. This game reminds me a lot of the 2003 Carolina game.

 

[dryheat44]

Denver gets ahead and gives up a lot of passing yardage. In the prevent, they give up a lot of short passes.

Exactly. Denver's actually blown a lot of big halftime leads this year, to barely hang on for the "W".

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Exactly. Denver's actually blown a lot of big halftime leads this year, to barely hang on for the "W".

Somebody brought up that the Jags were a lot like the Bucs and the more I thought about that the more it made sense. Outcome of both games almost identical. We slowed the running game, pressured the QB and made young QB's beat us... Typical BB game plan for teams that run.

Then another insightful person brought up that the Bronco's run a lot like the Jags and Bucs. (RB's that run for holes, more often that Zones). And we are now playing a team that does it better than the previous 2, but is not much different. Plummer is probably better than Leftwich, better than Simms and the Bronco's have tall physical recievers like the Jags.

I am trying to see this game objectively, and still believe that our guys have a chance and I keep coming up with the same conclusion. I really believe that the Pats are going to win this game. We are not even CLOSE to what we were last time we played the Denver.

I believe that BB is going to make Plummer throw and here is a QB that played great this year because he didn't have to throw more than 25 times a game most of the season. If you can slow the run and make Jake throw, your chances of winning the game go up considerably. I've thought for a while now that Jake Plummer was wearing a glass slipper. Now a team is coming into Denver and can legitemately alter the running game and make them throw.

Pats can win this game.....Its not a reach.

 

[oldrover]

Yes... they CAN win. But it will be tough. Last time we beat them in Denver it was by 4 points, and they didn't have their QB... or their kicker.

 

[BelichickFan]

Yes... they CAN win. But it will be tough. Last time we beat them in Denver it was by 4 points, and they didn't have their QB... or their kicker.

Well we didn't have Seymour in that game either. And they did have Portis who's better than either Bell or Anderson.

 

[oldrover]

Well we didn't have Seymour in that game either.

So you're saying a QB and a kicker equals a D-lineman, points-wise? Please.

 

[BelichickFan]

So you're saying a QB and a kicker equals a D-lineman, points-wise? Please.

It's not like they didn't have a kicker

The point is that was several years ago and to point out a couple of guys they were missing is misleading because half the rosters are different.

 

[oldrover]

They DIDN'T have their kicker. He was injured in the game.

 

[BelichickFan]

They DIDN'T have their kicker. He was injured in the game.

They missed one FG in the game and didn't pass up many FG chances that I can see from the drive chart :

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/drivechart?gameId=231103007

They may have passed on a 52 yarder in the 4th that Elam maybe would have made but it's not like they were going for it on 4th down in FG range all night.

 

[oldrover]

I didn't say they didn't overcome it. I said they didn't have their kicker. Which they didn't. Good grief.

 

[BelichickFan]

I didn't say they didn't overcome it. I said they didn't have their kicker. Which they didn't. Good grief.

And all I'm saying is that it doesn't appear to have had a significant impact.

 

[oldrover]

And all I'm saying is that it doesn't appear to have had a significant impact.

Well, the Broncos were only 29 for 114 rushing the ball, less than 4 YPC. So by your logic, the Pats didn't miss Seymour much either.

 

[BelichickFan]

Well, the Broncos were only 29 for 114 rushing the ball, less than 4 YPC. So by your logic, the Pats didn't miss Seymour much either.

I wouldn't say that. The Broncos might have been 29-85

 

[oldrover]

So, you think Kanell is better than Plummer too?

 

[dryheat44]

So, you think Kanell is better than Plummer too?

That year? Yeah, probably.

 

[BelichickFan]

So, you think Kanell is better than Plummer too?

I just don't think any of that is relevant. The teams are too different now to single out a couple of guys on each team who were out and make assumptions based on that.

 

[oldrover]

"Highly illogical. Yet fascinating."