A concrete look at trade "value," in players

[patchick]

I thought it would be interesting to make some of the abstract trade valuations concrete, using this year’s first-round trade as an example. What does pick #29 really mean, vs #52 + 83 + 102 + 229?

Below are the actual players selected in those slots for a dozen years, from 2009 (the most recent draft class I figured we can judge thoroughly) back through 1998. I leave it to you to judge for yourself which side came out ahead in each year, below. But for summary purposes, I did a rudimentary career coding:

Plaintext = Little impact
Italics = Contributor
Bold = Multi-year starter
Bold Italics = Pro-Bowler

If we define "quality player" as multi-year starter or better, then picking #29 yielded a quality player in 8 of the 12 years (8 QPs total), while #52 + 83 + 102 + 229 yielded a quality player in 11 of the 12 years (16 QPs total). Especially given that a first-round pick typically represents a major investment at a position of major need and is thus given every opportunity to start, that looks like a resounding win for the trade down.

The number of Pro-Bowlers was even, with 2 on each side.


2009 WR Hakeem Nicks vs. DE David Veikune + WR Brandon Tate + CB Donald Washington + WR Manuel Johnson
2008 DT Kentwan Balmer vs. DE Quentin Groves + G Jeremy Zuttah + DE Jeremy Thompson + CB Cary Williams
2007 G Ben Grubbs vs. FB Brian Leonard + DE Charles Johnson + DE Brian Robison + WR John Broussard
2006 C Nick Mangold vs. WR Greg Jennings + S Anthony Smith + S Calvin Lowry + S Willie Andrews
2005 CB Marlin Jackson vs. OT Khalif Barnes + WR Chris Henry + S Sean Considine + QB James Kilian
2004 WR Michael Jenkins vs. OT Jacob Rogers + G Stephen Peterman + CB Will Poole + K David Kimball
2003 LB Nick Barnett vs. LB Chaun Thompson + DE Sam Williams + G Montrae Holland + FB Andrew Pinnock
2002 OT Marc Colombo vs. DE Anthony Weaver + NT Charles Hill + K Jeff Chandler + DE Stylez White
2001 DT Ryan Pickett vs. WR Chris Chambers + LB Brian Allen + LB Matt Stewart + WR Ken-Yon Rambo
2000 WR Jay Soward vs. CB Ike Charlton + OT Damion McIntosh + CB David Barrett + DT Ron Moore
1999 DE Dimitrius Underwood vs. DT John Thornton + DE Tom Burke + WR Dameane Douglas + TE Mike Lucky
1998 RB John Avery vs. WR Tony Simmons + DE Greg Spires + DE Lorenzo Bromell + C Kevin Long

 

[BelichickFan]

This seemed like a good place to copy and paste our trade from April. Not the 7th traded to TB (Mr. Blount) :

Minnesota Vikings: Acquire pick No. 29 in 2013.
-- At No. 29, Minnesota selects Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee.

New England Patriots: Acquire picks No. 52, No. 83, No. 102 and No. 229 (traded to Tampa Bay) in 2013.
-- At No. 52, New England selects Jamie Collins OLB, Southern Mississippi.
-- At No. 83, New England selects Logan Ryan CB, Rutgers.
-- At No. 102, New England selects Josh Boyce WR, TCU.

 

[everlong]

Not sure what Boyce will be but even if Patterson turns into a pro bowler if Ryan and Collins continue on the path they are it's still and epic win for the Pats.

 

[everlong]

Patchick great concept and read. Its an imperfect comparison because of who's picking the groceries at different spots it's even but as an average it's very telling.

 

[mayoclinic]

I thought it would be interesting to make some of the abstract trade valuations concrete, using this year’s first-round trade as an example. What does pick #29 really mean, vs #52 + 83 + 102 + 229?

Below are the actual players selected in those slots for a dozen years, from 2009 (the most recent draft class I figured we can judge thoroughly) back through 1998. I leave it to you to judge for yourself which side came out ahead in each year, below. But for summary purposes, I did a rudimentary career coding:

Plaintext = Little impact
Italics = Contributor
Bold = Multi-year starter
Bold Italics = Pro-Bowler

If we define "quality player" as multi-year starter or better, then picking #29 yielded a quality player in 8 of the 12 years (8 QPs total), while #52 + 83 + 102 + 229 yielded a quality player in 11 of the 12 years (16 QPs total). Especially given that a first-round pick typically represents a major investment at a position of major need and is thus given every opportunity to start, that looks like a resounding win for the trade down.

The number of Pro-Bowlers was even, with 2 on each side.


2009 WR Hakeem Nicks vs. DE David Veikune + WR Brandon Tate + CB Donald Washington + WR Manuel Johnson
2008 DT Kentwan Balmer vs. DE Quentin Groves + G Jeremy Zuttah + DE Jeremy Thompson + CB Cary Williams
2007 G Ben Grubbs vs. FB Brian Leonard + DE Charles Johnson + DE Brian Robison + WR John Broussard
2006 C Nick Mangold vs. WR Greg Jennings + S Anthony Smith + S Calvin Lowry + S Willie Andrews
2005 CB Marlin Jackson vs. OT Khalif Barnes + WR Chris Henry + S Sean Considine + QB James Kilian
2004 WR Michael Jenkins vs. OT Jacob Rogers + G Stephen Peterman + CB Will Poole + K David Kimball
2003 LB Nick Barnett vs. LB Chaun Thompson + DE Sam Williams + G Montrae Holland + FB Andrew Pinnock
2002 OT Marc Colombo vs. DE Anthony Weaver + NT Charles Hill + K Jeff Chandler + DE Stylez White
2001 DT Ryan Pickett vs. WR Chris Chambers + LB Brian Allen + LB Matt Stewart + WR Ken-Yon Rambo
2000 WR Jay Soward vs. CB Ike Charlton + OT Damion McIntosh + CB David Barrett + DT Ron Moore
1999 DE Dimitrius Underwood vs. DT John Thornton + DE Tom Burke + WR Dameane Douglas + TE Mike Lucky
1998 RB John Avery vs. WR Tony Simmons + DE Greg Spires + DE Lorenzo Bromell + C Kevin Long

I believe Patterson made the Pro Bowl this year (as an alternate) as KR.

Regardless, BB doesn't care much about Pro Bowl selections, which are generally based on splash plays and gaudy stats (and on reputation); BB cares about situational execution, consistency ("dependability is more important than ability") and a team-first approach.

The bottom line is that BB passed up a very talented receiver/returner who was a questionable fit for our approach, and in return has gotten at least 2 quality rookies so far, one of whom clearly has pro bowl potential, plus a solid WR prospect in Boyce and part of a trade for the guy who has been our offensive MVP down the stretch.