A Cassel Misconception

[Miguel]

The fact that King would say something he pulled from his ***** doesn't surprise me either.

It is kindof funny to consider Cassel as being "in" the draft though.

Peter King did not say it. That quote was lifted from his thread.

 

[Rob0729]

virtually guaranteed is not guaranteed. But let's include the log bonus. That would make Ryan's APY just under 6 million. My point is that it is very likely that Cassel will sign a deal with a much higher APY.



I am saying that there is a huge difference between what Cassel will get and what Ryan got. Ryan got $3 million in new money in the 1st year of his deal. Cassel is likely to get 5 to 6 times as much. That to me is a huge difference.

Well, they do call it a log bonus because it would take Ryan falling off a log and having a career threating injury to not get the bonus. It isn't really a guarantee, but Ryan was virtually guaranteed to get it when he signed the contract. So it is a bit of semantics because it is a just doomsday poison pill to protect the team from Ryan doing something really stupid off the field.

As for the contracts, I don't know if Cassel will get more than $27 million in guarantees like Ryan got. I am expecting him to get something in the $20-25 million range. So the guarantees should be less. But then again, there is no telling what a team might pay for him. He might see more in the first three years than Ryan, but the guarantees and easily earned bonus money is probably going to be considerably less. That is if a team doesn't go crazy.

 

[Miguel]

As for the contracts, I don't know if Cassel will get more than $27 million in guarantees like Ryan got. I am expecting him to get something in the $20-25 million range. So the guarantees should be less. But then again, there is no telling what a team might pay for him. He might see more in the first three years than Ryan, but the guarantees and easily earned bonus money is probably going to be considerably less. That is if a team doesn't go crazy.

My point is that with the guarantees and easily earned money Ryan is scheduled to get less than $6 million per year. Cassel is going to get more than that. Aaron Rodgers signed a 6 year, $65 million deal.

Let's give Cassel a $20 million signing bonus.
and a 2009 salary of $4 million
2010 salary of $5.2 million
2011 salary of $6.4 million
2012 salary of $7.6 million
2013 salary of $8.8 million
2014 salary of $10 million.

That is a 6 year take of $62 million. Ryan's 6-year take is $35 million. That is a huge difference. Sure, Ryan may have more guaranteed money but Cassel will get more money. The latter is more important, IMO.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

just to ask..........what is the breakdown that makes people say it is a 72M deal?

what are the numbers that support that?

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

You hear this a lot in the media as well. NFL radio and Glen Ordway have each been spouting this for at least a month now. That probably leads to some of the misconceptions.

 

[Synovia]

That is a total of $27.3 million. That is all Ryan was scheduled to get. To get more Ryan has to reach the incentives/escalators in his contract. One can subtract a million from Ryan's potential take from this deal because he did not reach the one million incentive for the Falcons winning the Super Bow this year.

Miguel, what you're ignoring here is that a QB drafted in the top 10, who doesn't hold out for most of his first year, is going to start every game for atleast his first 2 years. They're going to hit most of their escalators. Yes, they're going to miss some, but they're going to hit a lot of them just being on the field.


I don't know the intricacies for Ryan's contract, but if you look at J. Russel's (our last huge QB bust), his contract earns 3M bonuses if he gets 45% of the snaps in 08 or 50% of 09.

So, despite the fact that Russel has been a huge bust, hes already hit $3m worth of escalators, and hes going to hit another $3m next year.


So while Ryan may only be "guaranteed" 27.3M, thats a dishonestly low number, because even if he was a bust of Leafian proportions, he'll earn more than that.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Because agents have done a great job of fluffing up the contracts given to top draft picks there is now a current myth (See 2 posts in the past week) that Cassel will be cheaper to sign than a high draft pick.
Fluffing up example - Matt Ryan's contract was reported to be a 6 year, $72 million with over $34 million in guarantees.
That sounds like a great deal until one looks at the details.
Here was actually guaranteed.
His 2008 salary of $295,000.
A 2008 roster bonus of $2,505,000.
His 2009 salary of $3,500,000.
His 2010 salary of $4,200,000.
His 2011 salary of $4,900,000.
His 2012 salary of $5,600,000.
His 2013 salary of $6,300,000.

That is a total of $27.3 million. That is all Ryan was scheduled to get. To get more Ryan has to reach the incentives/escalators in his contract. One can subtract a million from Ryan's potential take from this deal because he did not reach the one million incentive for the Falcons winning the Super Bow this year.

What are the chances that Cassell will sign a long-term deal that pays him just $3 million in the 1st year??that is mostly incentive-laden??whose salaries are limited to a 25% increase??

How much was Ryan's actual signing bonus Miguel?

 

[Miguel]

How much was Ryan's actual signing bonus Miguel?

He did not get any.

 

[Miguel]

Miguel, what you're ignoring here is that a QB drafted in the top 10, who doesn't hold out for most of his first year, is going to start every game for atleast his first 2 years. They're going to hit most of their escalators. Yes, they're going to miss some, but they're going to hit a lot of them just being on the field.

How do you know this??



I don't know the intricacies for Ryan's contract, but if you look at J. Russel's (our last huge QB bust), his contract earns 3M bonuses if he gets 45% of the snaps in 08 or 50% of 09.

So, despite the fact that Russel has been a huge bust, hes already hit $3m worth of escalators, and hes going to hit another $3m next year.

It is an one-time incentive. He is not going to get $3 million next year.

So while Ryan may only be "guaranteed" 27.3M, thats a dishonestly low number, because even if he was a bust of Leafian proportions, he'll earn more than that.

Written by someone who admits to not knowing the details of Ryan's contract.

 

[VJCPatriot]

While it is true, its hard to pinpoint exactly how much of Ryan's money is just fluff to make it look better and how much he is likely to actually earn, the overall sums, particularly the guaranteed monies look impressive taken as a whole.

My question is, how do you know how big of a contract Cassel is going to get? Also how much of that will he RELIABLY be expected to earn compared to the inevitable fluff to make it look better? Without that in hand as well, you're comparing apples to phantom oranges. So an assumption that Cassel will get more money on his next contract than Ryan remains just that, an assumption.

 

[patman52]

Because agents have done a great job of fluffing up the contracts given to top draft picks there is now a current myth (See 2 posts in the past week) that Cassel will be cheaper to sign than a high draft pick.
Fluffing up example - Matt Ryan's contract was reported to be a 6 year, $72 million with over $34 million in guarantees.
That sounds like a great deal until one looks at the details.
Here was actually guaranteed.
His 2008 salary of $295,000.
A 2008 roster bonus of $2,505,000.
His 2009 salary of $3,500,000.
His 2010 salary of $4,200,000.
His 2011 salary of $4,900,000.
His 2012 salary of $5,600,000.
His 2013 salary of $6,300,000.

That is a total of $27.3 million. That is all Ryan was scheduled to get. To get more Ryan has to reach the incentives/escalators in his contract. One can subtract a million from Ryan's potential take from this deal because he did not reach the one million incentive for the Falcons winning the Super Bow this year.

What are the chances that Cassell will sign a long-term deal that pays him just $3 million in the 1st year??that is mostly incentive-laden??whose salaries are limited to a 25% increase??

This was the contract he signed, he signed an incentive loaded deal believing
more on the top end was worth say going from 35 mill in guarantees, down to 27. NFL teams are not shy about spending money on qbs, they want to minimize risk.

I know you a cap guru but most NFL contracts for premier FA are about 1/3-1/2 guaranteed, Cassell will be in that realm, and will not get 27 mill in guarantees. Cassell will get less guaranteed than Ryan and have less questions about his ability to produce at an NFL level. So IMO he will cost less. Reducing both the teams exposure and expenditure.

 

[Miguel]

My question is, how do you know how big of a contract Cassel is going to get? Also how much of that will he RELIABLY be expected to earn compared to the inevitable fluff to make it look better? Without that in hand as well, you're comparing apples to phantom oranges. So an assumption that Cassel will get more money on his next contract than Ryan remains just that, an assumption.

It is an assumption
1.) based on recent contracts given to the top free agents each season (Jared Allen, Samuel, Abraham)
2.) based on recent contracts given to young quarterbacks (Schaub, Anderson, Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben, Garrard, Romo)

I think that it is a fair assumption that Cassel will get more than $3 million in new money in the first year of his contract.


NFL.com Blogs Blog Archive Rodgers among highest paid quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers' cap-friendly deal: $12.9M in 2008 | greenbaypressgazette.com | Green Bay Press-Gazette

It was widely reported that Rodgers got a 6-year $65 million. If you look at the second link, all of the 65 million is explained.

 

[Miguel]

Cassell will get less guaranteed than Ryan and have less questions about his ability to produce at an NFL level. So IMO he will cost less.

We will see in about 50 days.

 

[Synovia]

How do you know this??

:

I don't Miguel, but can you tell me of the last 1st round drafted QB who didn't get atleast 24 starts?

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

I don't Miguel, but can you tell me of the last 1st round drafted QB who didn't get atleast 24 starts?

Alkili Smith first name that popped into my head.
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A[/FONT]

 

[Synovia]

Alkili Smith first name that popped into my head.
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A[/FONT]

Thats 10 years back, and at that point, the expenditure for a 1st round QB wasn't nearly as high. Even Ryan Leaf got 25 starts for god sakes. And thats my point, no matter how bad the player is, they're still going to hit some of the incentives, because the expenditure is too high to not give the player every chance possible.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't Miguel, but can you tell me of the last 1st round drafted QB who didn't get atleast 24 starts?

Cade McNown had 15 career starts and was drafted 12th overall. He was drafted in 1999. Akili Smith drafted the same year with the 3rd pick had 17 career starts. Matt Leinhart (16 career starts) has a decent shot to make that list.

 

[Rob0729]

Thats 10 years back, and at that point, the expenditure for a 1st round QB wasn't nearly as high. Even Ryan Leaf got 25 starts for god sakes. And thats my point, no matter how bad the player is, they're still going to hit some of the incentives, because the expenditure is too high to not give the player every chance possible.

I do agree that some incentives are almost guaranteed bonuses. In Matt Ryan's case, he has at least $7 million worth. Granted Cassel could get similiar ones, but typically these are given to rookies because of the uncertainty of how they will perform in the NFL and looking for creative ways to stay under the rookie cap while making the player feel that the money is guaranteed which roster bonuses do not provide.

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

Cade McNown had 15 career starts and was drafted 12th overall. He was drafted in 1999. Akili Smith drafted the same year with the 3rd pick had 17 career starts. Matt Leinhart (16 career starts) has a decent shot to make that list.

Also, Chadwick Pennington sat the bench for the first two whole years of his rookie contract, and didn't start a game until something like the 5th or 6th game of his third season.

 

[Miguel]

I don't Miguel, but can you tell me of the last 1st round drafted QB who didn't get atleast 24 starts?

My question was about how do you know that most of the incentives given to top 10 QB draft picks are for playing-time.