A Balanced Look at the Defense

[alvinnf]

I am going to eliminate statistical confusion, and simply look, game by game at what the defense contributed to winning or losing. I will also take into account the circumstances of the game, what the offense did, etc.

Wk 1 Miami. With 5:44 left the defense had allowed 17 points, 7 coming off a turnover at the -11, and the lead was 21 points. What followed is irrelevant to the defense contributing to the win. This is a clear WIN for the defense.

Wk 2 San Diego Through 3 quarters, defense allowed only 7 points. The drive that started the 4th resulted in a TD to make it 20-14. Then:
After the offense turns over on downs at the 49, the D forces a fumble
After the O extends the lead to 14 the D allows a TD
After the O scores again, the D forces another fumble
A clear WIN for the defense

Wk 3 Buffalo As of the start of the 4th, the D had allowed 17 points despite 3 offensive turnovers. In the 4th quarter the defense was as awful as a defense can be. Clear LOSS for the defense

Wk 4 As of 1:16 left in the game the defense allows 13 points and has an 18 point lead. Clear WIN for the defense.

Wk 5 11:02 left in 3rd when Jets score to cut score to 17-14, THEN
O doesnt score
D 3 and out
O doesnt score
D 3 and out
O scores
D 3 and out
O kicks FG 27-14 less than 13 minutes left
D allows score but takes 5:42 off clock
O scores game over
WIN for the D, but certainly some help from the O to ensure winning

Wk 6 Dallas D allowed 16 points despite 4 turnovers by the offense. 6 of 11 drives had 0 or 1 1st down. Most importantly, tied at 13 through 3 the 4th quarter D drives were punt (after 2 1st downs) FG, punt (3 and out) followed by the offense scoring after having gone 4 2nd half drives without putting a point on the board, forcing the D to come up with stops to keep them in the game.
Clear WIN for the D.

Wk 7 Bye

Wk 8 Pittsburgh 1st 4 drives were TD,FG,Int,TD allowing 17 first half points.
Good red zone D in second half masked 18 minutes time of possession by Pitt while we were trailing. D never made the play that gave the O the chance to get back in it.
Clear LOSS for the D.

Wk 9 Giants It is very hard to argue that a defense was responsible for a loss when the offense needs a muffed punt recovery followed by gaining all of 19 yards before kicking a FG for its first points with 250 left in the 3rd after having committed 3 turnovers and having allowed only 10 points including 7 on a turnover at the -10, but from there on the D handed it away. After 2 stops (punt and Int) to let the O get back in the game, the D takes over up 13-10 with 7:08 to go and allows an 85 yard 8 play drive that only takes up 4:05. After the offense answers to go up 20-17 the D takes the field with 1:36 to go, at the 20, and allows an 8 play 80 yard drive to lose the game. Nothing that came before those 7 minutes and 8 seconds matters, this was a clear LOSS for the defense.

Wk 10 Jets Defense allowed 14 points, and never let the Jets challenge. Clear WIN for the D

Wk 11 Chiefs 3 points allowed, clear WIN for the D

Wk 12 Eagles. Allowed 2 early scores, then, while O was getting back in the game, then allowed 3 points in the subsequent 8 drives including 3 and out on 4 of 5 2nd quarter drives while the score went from 7-10 to 24-13. Clear and blatant WIN for the D, in fact one where the media will criticize the D for the yardage allowed, but the D had as much to do with the win as the O which played very well did.

Wk 13 Colts The Patriots score to go ahead 31-3 with 4:13 left in the game, and the game is over. The defense had as much to do with this as the offense. At this point even of the offense ran only 9 plays and took 2:40 off the clock combined on their 3 remaining drives, there would not be enough time left for the Colts to come back and tie. The game was won. What followed was irrelevant. A clear WIN for the defense.

So, in 12 games, the defense clearly won its half of the game and contributed very positively to the victory 8 times and well enough with to win as long as the O was decent a 9th time, and played crappy 3 times.
That adds up to a defense that has done more to help the team win than it has done to cause them to lose, by a clear margin. No doubt the offense has been better than the defense, but the fact is the defense deserves to be 9-3.

Love your post. When you go through and look at all the positive they did to win games you can realize that allot of the lapses late in games are just hedging their bets on the way they play. Everytime they needed to step up they did. Outside of Pitt and the Giants and to be honest I am torn on the Giants. Lets watch em grow and enjoy the result.

 

[ausbacker]

If this defense isn't middle of the road, where are you placing them ? Top 10 ? Top 5 ?

Exactly! As mentioned in an earlier post, comparing this team against all 32 teams would likely show that ours is perhaps just a bit better than middle of the road in terms of points allowed. When comparing it with just the top 1/3rd of the league who are likely playoff bound, the team's points against is more towards the bottom of that list.

The biggest reason this team is 9-3 however is that the offense has been outstanding. It's a quick strike offense that can win games even if the Pats are losing the Time of Possession battle (26th in the league) because the defense is on the field so much with so few three and outs or at least short series'.

It's more the fact that Andy refuses to accept that the defense is middle of the road who are exceptional at making plays when needed, specifically forcing or receiving turnovers. The D is credited with 17 interceptions (equal 2nd) and 6 recovered fumbles (23rd).

It's much the same as last year when it comes to teams piling on the yards, yet the Patriots clamp down in the red zone and force a turnover. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the position that they are a major contributor to winning efforts or losing efforts because they are, just like the offense and special teams.

Most people are guarded optimists given the junktime statistics the Patriots D have yielded. Against playoff caliber teams, the D won't be afforded that luxury nor will the offense.

All I'd really like to see is improvement from the Patriots TEAM as the season progresses. Improvement that will hopefully carry them to another championship.

 

[cstjohn17]

Balance.. good one.

The recipe is for Brady to play superior and the defense to do just enough to get it done.

New England Patriots 2011 Schedule - Patriots Home and Away - ESPN
2 of the 3 losses Brady had a QB rating less than 100
8 of the 9 wins Brady had a QB rating greater than 100

The defense has had the benefit of playing with a lead the majority of the time, most teams were one dimensional. Even when they told the Patriots "We are throwing now" they still can't cover and have given up near historic levels of passing yards.

Heaven forbid we step away from statistics, from a smell test it isn't pretty. There are flashes of solid play but hardly enough to instill confidence.

My hope is they can catch fire and play solid during the playoffs and Brady can play lights out. Even Brady is average they are cooked.

Balanced....

 

[Ring 6]

If this defense isn't middle of the road, where are you placing them ? Top 10 ? Top 5 ?

I'm not placing them anywhere, I am assessing what they have done. I would assume playing well enough to deserve to win 9 of 12 places them solidly above middle of the road.

 

[Ring 6]

Balance.. good one.

The recipe is for Brady to play superior and the defense to do just enough to get it done.

New England Patriots 2011 Schedule - Patriots Home and Away - ESPN
2 of the 3 losses Brady had a QB rating less than 100
8 of the 9 wins Brady had a QB rating greater than 100

My BALANCED assessment analyzed what the defense did game by game.
With or without Brady, the defenses play stands alone good or bad.

The defense has had the benefit of playing with a lead the majority of the time, most teams were one dimensional.

As illustrated in detail, the defense often contributed to getting those large leads.

Even when they told the Patriots "We are throwing now" they still can't cover and have given up near historic levels of passing yards.

How do the components of a game that resulted in the defense playing well enough to deserve to win add up to proof that they sucked?
I could care less how many yards they allowed, unless those yards add up to costing the team games. So far those yards have added up to 9-3.

Heaven forbid we step away from statistics, from a smell test it isn't pretty. There are flashes of solid play but hardly enough to instill confidence.

Actually there are 9 games worth of good enough play to deserve to win and 3 games worth of bad enough play to deserve to lose. Whatever you smell it either adds up to that or you need to sniff elsewhere.

My hope is they can catch fire and play solid during the playoffs and Brady can play lights out. Even Brady is average they are cooked.

Balanced....

Balanced and reasonable and fact based, as opposed to picking items that clearly have not added up to the result you think they are supposed to and calling them more telling of result than an actual result.

 

[Ring 6]

It's more the fact that Andy refuses to accept that the defense is middle of the road who are exceptional at making plays when needed, specifically forcing or receiving turnovers. The D is credited with 17 interceptions (equal 2nd) and 6 recovered fumbles (23rd).

Once again, I am not ranking them anywhere. I am simply saying that the result are the sum of all the parts, and picking out parts and calling that a better yardstick than the result is silly.

It's much the same as last year when it comes to teams piling on the yards, yet the Patriots clamp down in the red zone and force a turnover. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the position that they are a major contributor to winning efforts or losing efforts because they are, just like the offense and special teams.

That really is the point.

Most people are guarded optimists given the junktime statistics the Patriots D have yielded. Against playoff caliber teams, the D won't be afforded that luxury nor will the offense.

I don't get this comment. How is it being afforded a luxury to play late in the game with it already decided thereby skewing the stats?

The style that this defense plays when the game is essentially out of hand is to put excess priority on preventing the big play. That stresses the rest of the coverage. They must cover a larger part of the field, have less help, and get no benefit from a blitz aided pass rush. It is far from impossible to play good defense under those conditions, just an awful lot harder. Our defenders are not good enough to be effective against an offense taking what is given vs a defense overcommitted to take away the big play. That means we are not a good defense at preventing long time consuming drives when we are playing a style that entices the offense to take them.
Since we play that scheme only when the game is out of hand, I just don't know how being weak in that scheme is supposed to hurt our chances of winning.

All I'd really like to see is improvement from the Patriots TEAM as the season progresses. Improvement that will hopefully carry them to another championship.

It is all about playing as a TEAM. In 2001 this team had what I found to be an amazing characteristic. When the defense needed a stop, often it got it, but when it didnt, every time, the offense answered and gave the D a second chance and it got the stop. Similarly when the O needed to score, often it did but whenever it did not the D got the ball back and the O got the score on the second chance.
That phenomena is kind of related to what I am driving at here. Statistics are useless unless you factor in WHEN they were accumulated. If what we allowed to the Colts in the 4th quarter when the game was decided already happened in the 2nd quarter, it is completely different.
If we cannot separate what happens from the context it happens in then we end up putting an inappropriate importance on things that occur in a vaccuum.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Andy, if I see your point properly, from a complimentary standpoint you are correct. What the offense can do in a game (call it X) then requires the defense only do Y to result in a victory. In that realm, the defense has been able to deliver Y often (9 times so far). The question then becomes, does that make a defense good if they typically can only deliver Y? My personal opinion is that is a winning formula in the regular season ......but in the post season achieving Y is significantly less attainable (not just because the competition is better but because of the D's standalone ability). The ultimate question for January is, if the offense's X is well below the regular season average, does the defense have the ability to deliver the level of Y that is required for victory? I prefer to be optimistic but there is reason to have pessimism on that point.

With that said, the defense at times has played significantly better than the chicken little brigade's visceral click clack of 'the defense just sucks, period'. As your OP pointed out, against Dallas the defense's Y had to be relatively high to compliment the offense's lower than normal X (and that isn't the only example). Further, and the best place to hang a hat imho, the D has been consistent regarding the amount of points they allow. Hopefully, with optimism being the driving force behind that hope, the D and O will be playing their best ball come January. McCourty regaining just 80% of last year's form would cause a very positive ripple effect on the defense.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy, if I see your point properly, from a complimentary standpoint you are correct. What the offense can do in a game (call it X) then requires the defense only do Y to result in a victory. In that realm, the defense has been able to deliver Y often (9 times so far). The question then becomes, does that make a defense good if they typically can only deliver Y? My personal opinion is that is a winning formula in the regular season ......but in the post season achieving Y is significantly less attainable (not just because the competition is better but because of the D's standalone ability). The ultimate question for January is, if the offense's X is well below the regular season average, does the defense have the ability to deliver the level of Y that is required for victory? I prefer to be optimistic but there is reason to have pessimism on that point.

With that said, the defense at times has played significantly better than the chicken little brigade's visceral click clack of 'the defense just sucks, period'. As your OP pointed out, against Dallas the defense's Y had to be relatively high to compliment the offense's lower than normal X (and that isn't the only example). Further, and the best place to hang a hat imho, the D has been consistent regarding the amount of points they allow. Hopefully, with optimism being the driving force behind that hope, the D and O will be playing their best ball come January. McCourty regaining just 80% of last year's form would cause a very positive ripple effect on the defense.

I think you can only judge them by the situation they are put in.
But I will say, in those 9 games up until the point the game was decided the defensive results were good.
If I understand your argument, it goes something like this:

If we have a 31-3 lead with 19 minutes left we have it because the offense scored 31. (But as follows in most games we have it also because the defense allowed a low amount of points) If the offense can't score 31 and it was only 10-3 then they have to stop them for those 19 minutes and because of the offense they don't have to.
Valid point, however, this implies that the time of the game is variable not the score. We now that the defense would not play the strategy and scheme it did up 31-3 if it were 10-3 so what follows is irrelevant. Up until the point where the game was no longer competitive, in 9 games the defense played well enough to deserve to win. There is no evidence that would indicate they would not continue to play equally as well if the game was competitive right to the end.

 

[cstjohn17]

Balanced and reasonable and fact based, as opposed to picking items that clearly have not added up to the result you think they are supposed to and calling them more telling of result than an actual result.

Andy my man, you are entitled to your opinion, go forth.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I think you can only judge them by the situation they are put in.
But I will say, in those 9 games up until the point the game was decided the defensive results were good.
If I understand your argument, it goes something like this:

If we have a 31-3 lead with 19 minutes left we have it because the offense scored 31. (But as follows in most games we have it also because the defense allowed a low amount of points) If the offense can't score 31 and it was only 10-3 then they have to stop them for those 19 minutes and because of the offense they don't have to.
Valid point, however, this implies that the time of the game is variable not the score. We now that the defense would not play the strategy and scheme it did up 31-3 if it were 10-3 so what follows is irrelevant. Up until the point where the game was no longer competitive, in 9 games the defense played well enough to deserve to win. There is no evidence that would indicate they would not continue to play equally as well if the game was competitive right to the end.

Point well taken.
From a more general view, I watch the D give up A LOT of yards (granted it is sometimes due to conditions of the game such as a lopsided score) and it makes me starkly concerned. It may be unfair to the D but all those 'yards allowed' makes their solid 'points allowed' performance appear less valid. Which leads me back to, can a defense that seemingly always has yards piled up on them be effective enough against top opponents when the O is misfiring?

The good news is I believe the O is getting back on track and may be capable of scoring a lot on any team. I also believe the Patriot D when healthy is good enough to compliment the O. But I also have watched the O struggle (like in Dallas, Pitt, first half of KC, First half of Jets, much of the Giants game) and that is where the D's ability comes into play and whether it will shine or not shine through. At this point you seem more convinced than I that the D's ability can lead the team to victory in that type situation in the playoffs. Admittedly, however, my pessimism is based on a 'what I've seen' hunch versus what you correctly point out regarding the breakdown of the W-L results.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Andy is never wrong guys..haven't you learned anything?

 

[sbpatfan]

Andy is never wrong guys..haven't you learned anything?

A Homeristic and Completely Delusional Look at the Defense
by AndyJohnson

 

[condon84]

A Homeristic and Completely Delusional Look at the Defense
by AndyJohnson

What kills me is that people actually believe his ramblings.

 

[ATippett56]

What kills me is that people actually believe his ramblings.

"Branch Davidians"

 

[IllegalContact]

My father could beat up your father.

beating on a corpse is disgusting

 

[IllegalContact]

What does that mean? Since the 14-2 Patriots lost a playoff game, every opinion about everything they do must be whiny, paranoid and negative?

I knew this was your level of understanding, but to be so indignant about it reeks of delusion.

and no, not everything they do is wrong......but the defense is.....

I'm just looking at the Texans starting OLB's (barwin and reed) and I can see ho wdifferent things would be here if they drafted those 2 instead of butler or brace and dowling. but I guess barwin and reed didn't fit the 'system'

 

[robbomango]

I don't believe it's a fluke teams like GB, NE and NO are ranked last in pass yards allowed and maintain better rushing defenses(yrds allowed) NE 10th, GB 13th, NO 16th while holding the top 1, 2, 3 passing offenses.

Rush D, redzone D and not allowing the big play deep are all higher priorities than pass yards allowed. having a team run all over you burning clock with the O sidelined is the last thing BB wants. if you watched BB + TB wired belichick comments on how indy wanted to make it the slowest game possible. he wasn't having that and Addai only produced 38YDs rushing.

Shutting Addai down set up the shoot out BB wanted, having the best QB's in the league(Brees, TB, A Rodg) with a solid receiving core makes it an easy gamble.

The ground game produces much less turnovers by nature so making teams throw gives us the turnover potential we're looking for same goes for GB and NO.

This stuff is probably obvious but I wanted to emphisize how it's all been done intentionally by design. Sacrificing pass yards allowed to put the bend in the"bend but don't break Defense".

That's the GB, NE and NO big picture from my perspective, any input is welcome even if it's an insult, lol

 

[RDS11]

I'm not placing them anywhere, I am assessing what they have done. I would assume playing well enough to deserve to win 9 of 12 places them solidly above middle of the road.

To that, I agree.

My BALANCED assessment analyzed what the defense did game by game.
With or without Brady, the defenses play stands alone good or bad.


As illustrated in detail, the defense often contributed to getting those large leads.

.

That's the part where your analysis is flawed. Playing with Brady is huge, it dictated a lot of thing on what the other team has to do to keep up. The Colts are a great example. The loss of Manning has exposed their defense, because of their offense shortcomming they are not in the same situation they used to be, and they have not shown they can carry their team, as the offense used to do.

We have seen a few other example of the Pats offense impact on game decision by opposing coaches the last few weeks : the Chiefs going for an onside kick, and the Eagles going for 4th down and the goalline instead of taking the 3 points.

The defense does not play in a vaccuum, they are playing given the situation at the time. And the offense, more time than not, is putting pressure on the opposing offense to keep up. And by putting the pressure on the other team offense, it will have an impact on their decision-making.

All in all, I agree that this defense is sure good enough to be part of a 9-3, as the steading are showing. But let's not underestimate the impact Brady and co have on the defensive results. I think everybody will agree that if one unit is supporting the other, it's the offense that is carrying the team. Not that it means the defense is bad, just that the offense is that good.

I think most Pats fans are concerned about the defense possible shortcoming in the playoffs, the reason being that this is an opportunistic defense, based on turnovers and good red zone play, that might be challenged when they will face more efficient offensive opponents in the playoffs. The purpose of this bend but don't break defense is that it shouldn't give up a short scoring drive; if the offense wants to score, it will take a 10 or 12 plays drive. It's playing the percentage that along the way, given the high number of plays it will take to score, the opponent will eventually make a mistake that they cannot recover from. Works well in the regular season against average opponents, but will it works in the playoffs, when the opponent is better and more efficient ? To that end, your list does not provide anything new...we all know this defense is good enough to be 9-3. Moreover, no 2 games are the same, as we saw last year against the Jets at home, or in 2004 against the Steelers. So by 'grading' the defensive performance on a game by game basis, it doesn't add anything new to the discussion, it just states the obvious that everybody can see by looking at the standings.
The bigger question is, is this defense good enough to carry the team should the offense falters ? Can they produce the same turnovers and good red zone play against more efficient opponents such as the Saints and Packers ?

 

[condon84]

Sigh, whatever Andy.

Beaten into submission. LOL.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I know we would love to see GB and NE meet in the Super Bowl but that scenario would put a wound in the term 'Defense Wins Championships'....it will never be the same again for those that believe that is true,should it happen.